Mary Cain 800 Prediction Thread

Will she double is a question that must be answered first.

I'd think planning a rustbusting 2:05ish effort and a see what I can do 1500 is more in line with what will actually happen.

1:59.45 PR. I'm guessing the calf injury wasn't all that serious.

you guys picked vessey?

well that's courageous.

Have to go with price 1:59

then cain 2:00

then a big pack.I'd put vessey 5th or something like that

If price takes it out fast it will be interesting to see how cain responds. Most likely cain will run her regular 59 and stay 6 meters back and not quite get price at the line.

it's clear that she's not in supreme shape as she's not in the 1500m or 2 mile, but I think she could easily PR in the 800 still.

1:59.45

agip wrote:

you guys picked vessey?

...

I'd put vessey 5th or something like that

vessey is back in shape this year. she ran 1:59 already against brenda martinez

i think vessey will be 3rd

1. Vessey 1:59.00

2. Price 1:59.5

3. Cain 2:00.5

Vessey ran a strong 400 last month, followed by a good finish in the 800 vs Brenda. I believe she will finish strong, overtaking Price on the final straight. Cain will be in the lead pack on the final turn but will not have enough to overtake either Vessey or Price.

reed wrote:

agip wrote:

you guys picked vessey?

...

I'd put vessey 5th or something like that

vessey is back in shape this year. she ran 1:59 already against brenda martinez

i think vessey will be 3rd

I wish MV well...but the only reason she was second in that Oxy race is because it went out so slowly - no one went with the rabbit so Vessey wasn't 8 hopeless meters behind like she will be in a normal 800.

How many 800s go out in 61 these days like Oxy? Very few - I'm betting MV will get too far behind again and lose contact.

Maggie Vessey is the alpha shewolf.

Price sub 2 ftw

Cain 59.5 / 61.5 = 2:01 flat, finishes mid pack behind Vessey

Questions:

-Why is Jess Judd in the B heat?

-Why isn't Ajee Wilson running?

158.5! You heard it here first.

reed wrote:

it's clear that she's not in supreme shape as she's not in the 1500m or 2 mile, but I think she could easily PR in the 800 still.

1:59.45

I don't undestand why people aren't higher on Cain.

Cain is in many ways an 800 woman. That's where she started.

Last year, she ran the 800, not 1500 at Pre. I think she might be better suited for 800 instead of 1500 at this stage in her career. It doesn't mean she's not in 'shape.' She's jsut got a lot of natural speed and likely can run 159-200 first time out, whereas she's never run a time that would place her competitively in the 1500 at Pre.

So instead of starting off the season getting slaughtered and overshadowed by Simpson in the 1500, she starts in an event where she can be competitive for the win and progress her to a 1500 later.

When I was coaching, I always liked to start people either under distance or over distance - never in their main event.

This is a smart move by Salazar and I expect Cain to challenge FTW. A win over price wouldn't stun me.

rojo wrote:

reed wrote:

it's clear that she's not in supreme shape as she's not in the 1500m or 2 mile, but I think she could easily PR in the 800 still.

1:59.45

I don't undestand why people aren't higher on Cain.

Cain is in many ways an 800 woman. That's where she started.

^This

MC went sub 2:04 as a freshman and then sub 2:00 last season, but that was before the "form improvements". Haven't seen her run much since they were going to rework her mechanics, but she looked really stiff indoors.

To me it looked like Salazar was taking her the wrong way from a mechanics standpoint, but I hope for her sake she gets a PR.

2:00.37

^^^This. Price is the perfect pacer for Cain. I can see Cain staying in touch, then kicking to a win.

My prediction: 1:58.60 (unless we're playing by 'The Price is Right' rules).

Mary Cain will run 1:58.27 and finish first. Then there will be a video of the race posted on the letsrun message board page that will endlessly play automatically whether you want it to or not.

Price will take it out hard and Cain will benefit from it initially before fading.

2:02 with a fade.

If Cain were fully fit, she'd be running in the 1500m, but she isn't fully fit so she's running in the 800m, which I agree is a more natural event for her. Ken Goe did a nice piece on Cain yesterday that lays out the issues well - see

.

Cain is very good, but I don't see her going much better than 2:01 under the circumstances - will be happy to be proved wrong.

If Cain was in 1:59 shape she would proabably be in the mile, which is why I am going to say 2:01.