Mary Cain 800 Prediction Thread

New
  • wejo
    cofounder
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 2:10pm CDT
    Forum Index
    Our women's 800 preview is up.
    http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/05/mary-cain-v-chanelle-price-800/

    Mary Cain returns to action vs Maggie Vessey and Chanelle Price.

    Last year at Pre Cain went sub 2:00 for the first and only time. Her 2nd bets time is 2:01.

    That race and the rest of the season changed our expectaions for her.

    Hard to think she could open anywhere near that fast but she's a much better runner than she was a year ago.

    I'm thinking she might open in 2:01 for some reason. I have nothing to base it off of as she hasn't raced in 3 months.

    Also reminds me how Cain is faster than Jenny Simpson who's 800 pr is 2:00.45.

    Some 800 types can chime in what a good opener would be.
  • and I'm Able
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 2:55pm CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    Will she double is a question that must be answered first.
    I'd think planning a rustbusting 2:05ish effort and a see what I can do 1500 is more in line with what will actually happen.
  • Collin
    registered
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 3:02pm CDT
    re: and I'm Able
    Forum Index
    1:59.45 PR. I'm guessing the calf injury wasn't all that serious.
  • agip
    registered
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 3:02pm CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    you guys picked vessey?

    well that's courageous.

    Have to go with price 1:59
    then cain 2:00

    then a big pack.I'd put vessey 5th or something like that

    If price takes it out fast it will be interesting to see how cain responds. Most likely cain will run her regular 59 and stay 6 meters back and not quite get price at the line.
  • reed
    registered
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 3:02pm CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    it's clear that she's not in supreme shape as she's not in the 1500m or 2 mile, but I think she could easily PR in the 800 still.

    1:59.45
  • reed
    registered
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 3:04pm CDT
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    you guys picked vessey?
    ...
    I'd put vessey 5th or something like that

    vessey is back in shape this year. she ran 1:59 already against brenda martinez

    i think vessey will be 3rd
  • DedicatedRunner
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 3:15pm CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    1. Vessey 1:59.00
    2. Price 1:59.5
    3. Cain 2:00.5

    Vessey ran a strong 400 last month, followed by a good finish in the 800 vs Brenda. I believe she will finish strong, overtaking Price on the final straight. Cain will be in the lead pack on the final turn but will not have enough to overtake either Vessey or Price.
  • agip
    registered
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 3:16pm CDT
    re: reed
    Forum Index
    reed wrote:

    agip wrote:

    you guys picked vessey?
    ...
    I'd put vessey 5th or something like that

    vessey is back in shape this year. she ran 1:59 already against brenda martinez

    i think vessey will be 3rd


    I wish MV well...but the only reason she was second in that Oxy race is because it went out so slowly - no one went with the rabbit so Vessey wasn't 8 hopeless meters behind like she will be in a normal 800.

    How many 800s go out in 61 these days like Oxy? Very few - I'm betting MV will get too far behind again and lose contact.

    http://www.usatf.tv/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=45365&do=videos&video_id=114807-Womens-800m-Section-1-USATF-High-Performance-Distance-Classic-2014
  • Maggie kicks arse
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 3:19pm CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    Maggie Vessey is the alpha shewolf.
  • dkny64
    registered
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 3:21pm CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    Price sub 2 ftw
    Cain 59.5 / 61.5 = 2:01 flat, finishes mid pack behind Vessey

    Questions:
    -Why is Jess Judd in the B heat?
    -Why isn't Ajee Wilson running?
  • SNH
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 4:39pm CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    158.5! You heard it here first.
  • rojo
    cofounder
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 5:33pm CDT
    re: reed
    Forum Index
    reed wrote:

    it's clear that she's not in supreme shape as she's not in the 1500m or 2 mile, but I think she could easily PR in the 800 still.

    1:59.45

    I don't undestand why people aren't higher on Cain.

    Cain is in many ways an 800 woman. That's where she started.

    Last year, she ran the 800, not 1500 at Pre. I think she might be better suited for 800 instead of 1500 at this stage in her career. It doesn't mean she's not in 'shape.' She's jsut got a lot of natural speed and likely can run 159-200 first time out, whereas she's never run a time that would place her competitively in the 1500 at Pre.

    So instead of starting off the season getting slaughtered and overshadowed by Simpson in the 1500, she starts in an event where she can be competitive for the win and progress her to a 1500 later.

    When I was coaching, I always liked to start people either under distance or over distance - never in their main event.

    This is a smart move by Salazar and I expect Cain to challenge FTW. A win over price wouldn't stun me.
  • Moe Syszlak
    6 years ago 05/29/2014 7:28pm CDT
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    rojo wrote:

    reed wrote:

    it's clear that she's not in supreme shape as she's not in the 1500m or 2 mile, but I think she could easily PR in the 800 still.

    1:59.45

    I don't undestand why people aren't higher on Cain.

    Cain is in many ways an 800 woman. That's where she started.



    ^This
  • somebody is paying attention!
    6 years ago 05/30/2014 3:18am CDT
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    MC went sub 2:04 as a freshman and then sub 2:00 last season, but that was before the "form improvements". Haven't seen her run much since they were going to rework her mechanics, but she looked really stiff indoors.

    To me it looked like Salazar was taking her the wrong way from a mechanics standpoint, but I hope for her sake she gets a PR.
  • Soprano
    Employee 1.1
    6 years ago 05/30/2014 4:04am CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    2:00.37
  • go irish go
    6 years ago 05/30/2014 7:31am CDT
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    rojo wrote:

    reed wrote:

    it's clear that she's not in supreme shape as she's not in the 1500m or 2 mile, but I think she could easily PR in the 800 still.

    1:59.45

    I don't undestand why people aren't higher on Cain.

    Cain is in many ways an 800 woman. That's where she started.

    Last year, she ran the 800, not 1500 at Pre. I think she might be better suited for 800 instead of 1500 at this stage in her career. It doesn't mean she's not in 'shape.' She's jsut got a lot of natural speed and likely can run 159-200 first time out, whereas she's never run a time that would place her competitively in the 1500 at Pre.

    So instead of starting off the season getting slaughtered and overshadowed by Simpson in the 1500, she starts in an event where she can be competitive for the win and progress her to a 1500 later.

    When I was coaching, I always liked to start people either under distance or over distance - never in their main event.

    This is a smart move by Salazar and I expect Cain to challenge FTW. A win over price wouldn't stun me.


    ^^^This. Price is the perfect pacer for Cain. I can see Cain staying in touch, then kicking to a win.

    My prediction: 1:58.60 (unless we're playing by 'The Price is Right' rules).
  • cmon dude
    registered
    6 years ago 05/30/2014 7:47am CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    Mary Cain will run 1:58.27 and finish first. Then there will be a video of the race posted on the letsrun message board page that will endlessly play automatically whether you want it to or not.
  • Steve says it
    6 years ago 05/30/2014 8:14am CDT
    re: Cmon dude
    Forum Index
    Price will take it out hard and Cain will benefit from it initially before fading.

    2:02 with a fade.
  • dkny64
    registered
    6 years ago 05/30/2014 8:55am CDT
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    rojo wrote:

    reed wrote:

    it's clear that she's not in supreme shape as she's not in the 1500m or 2 mile, but I think she could easily PR in the 800 still.

    1:59.45

    I don't undestand why people aren't higher on Cain.

    Cain is in many ways an 800 woman. That's where she started.

    Last year, she ran the 800, not 1500 at Pre. I think she might be better suited for 800 instead of 1500 at this stage in her career. It doesn't mean she's not in 'shape.' She's jsut got a lot of natural speed and likely can run 159-200 first time out, whereas she's never run a time that would place her competitively in the 1500 at Pre.

    So instead of starting off the season getting slaughtered and overshadowed by Simpson in the 1500, she starts in an event where she can be competitive for the win and progress her to a 1500 later.

    When I was coaching, I always liked to start people either under distance or over distance - never in their main event.

    This is a smart move by Salazar and I expect Cain to challenge FTW. A win over price wouldn't stun me.

    If Cain were fully fit, she'd be running in the 1500m, but she isn't fully fit so she's running in the 800m, which I agree is a more natural event for her. Ken Goe did a nice piece on Cain yesterday that lays out the issues well - see http://www.oregonlive.com/trackandfield/index.ssf/2014/05/athlete_student_star_mary_cain.html.
    Cain is very good, but I don't see her going much better than 2:01 under the circumstances - will be happy to be proved wrong.
  • trackcoach
    6 years ago 05/30/2014 9:19am CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    If Cain was in 1:59 shape she would proabably be in the mile, which is why I am going to say 2:01.