Help to predict a marathon - sub 2h30? sub 2h40?

My guess is 2:36-2:38. You clearly have the potential to run sub-2:30 but your volume seems too limited. Don't go out any faster than 6:10 pace for the first 2 miles.

clover is about right. It doesn't look like you've done an awful lot of marathon specific work so you'll probably find it hard to maintain pace towards the end. A little more volume and slightly easier effort long runs will probably see you continue to improve substantially, add in targeted marathon specific work and there's no reason you couldn't break 2:30 in 6 months time.

If you go out and try to run 2:38, you may surprise yourself with a 2:35. If you try to run 2:30, I think you're setting yourself up for 2:50+.

Thanks guys.

MarD wrote:

clover is about right. It doesn't look like you've done an awful lot of marathon specific work so you'll probably find it hard to maintain pace towards the end. A little more volume and slightly easier effort long runs will probably see you continue to improve substantially, add in targeted marathon specific work and there's no reason you couldn't break 2:30 in 6 months time.

that's interesting, so you think my long runs were too hard? Which pace would you recommend? As i was firstly aiming to run the marathon around 6:00 pace, I was running the long runs about +40s over the target.

rfmaioral wrote:

that's interesting, so you think my long runs were too hard? Which pace would you recommend? As i was firstly aiming to run the marathon around 6:00 pace, I was running the long runs about +40s over the target.

Not necessarily too hard for the mileage you're doing but for the future as you build your mileage you'll probably drop the effort a little for the easy (i.e. non-session) long runs. Of course the pace will probably improve as your overall training stimulus increases but the effort that I guess (and we're on a message board here so make sure that you have some salt) you're putting in to your long run will need to reduce slightly.

The other point is that you're doing a lot of shortish intervals which might be making it easier for you to run your long runs quite quickly, i.e. leg turnover isn't an issue which it can be for somebody who has been doing loads of miles but not much speedwork.

It sounds like (pass that salt) you've probably got yourself into pretty good shape and I expect that you'll run a pretty good time but IMO to get a peak marathon time you'd need to now ditch the intervals and spend the next 6 - 8 weeks on 2 long run sessions a week. One with sections a little faster than marathon pace and the other with sections slightly slower than marathon pace both gradually tapering towards target marathon pace. At least, that's what I recommend (very rough interpretation of what Canova advocates).

There's more than one way to skin a cat though. You should review your training after the marathon. Try and work out what worked and what didn't. Make some changes (not too many) and go again. Review, repeat, reach your potential.

Good luck!

Thanks. I appreciate your thoughts.

What do you think I should run for the first half?

I won't be running a 75 as if I do that, it might be too risky to walk the last miles.

But I feel that I can run anything between 76-79.

79 sounds good for a negative split, but at the same time I do want to try and break 2h35.

Right now I think I will run something between 76:45 and 77:15. Does that sounds doable based on my trainings?

The others are right. You're in 2:38+/- shape. You have 2:30 potential but don't have the miles in the bank yet. Depending on the course you run 79/79 is the way to go. You're likely to positive split though so 78/80 may be more likely. And hey you could have a good day and go 78/76. But you really need big miles, 70-90 mpw or even more, for a good number of weeks of base.

rfmaioral wrote:

Thanks. I appreciate your thoughts.

What do you think I should run for the first half?

I won't be running a 75 as if I do that, it might be too risky to walk the last miles.

But I feel that I can run anything between 76-79.

79 sounds good for a negative split, but at the same time I do want to try and break 2h35.

Right now I think I will run something between 76:45 and 77:15. Does that sounds doable based on my trainings?

Just repeat this to yourself over and over: it is almost impossible to go out too slow in a marathon, especially for a non-elite. It is very, very easy to go out to fast, and your margin for error is much greater in one direction that the other. If I were you I'd be running 78 for the first half at the absolute fastest, and honestly, an 80-minute first half wouldn't be a terrible idea.

i got sick these last days, down with a flu.

monday i've run 10 x 1.000m @ 3.22 avg and 60s jog between. It was the last day i've run. Today i feel bad, and I doubt will be able to run tomorrow as well.

maybe on saturday or sunday i can be back.

the question is... how can this affect my marathon?

i am so bombed, everything went right and now for the last days i can't run.

how can the fact that i will barely train for the last two weeks affect my 2h35 goal?

i was hoping to run some fast half miles tomorrow, a 10 miles @ 5.50 on sunday (one week before the race) and another speed workout probably on wednesday of the race week. Don't think i will be able to do any of these anymore.

Marathons are expensive so thinking about that you probably want to run it anyway. If you truly feel awful, then in order to prepare for the long term I think you should drop out of the race and look to the next one. Hopefully you do recover. Just run what you can and don't push yourself too hard. You have the speed that you won't lose too much there which is pretty much what your planned workouts were for.

finished the marathon in 2h41. Even splits of 1h20'XX

i really think that those who predicted ~2h35~2h38 predicted right, but i got sick two weeks before the race with a flu. At race's day was feeling better but still not fully recovered, decided to run a conservative pace.

thanks for those who helped. On august i will run another one shooting a 2h35 and next year hope to reach 2h30 level.

thanks for those who helped!