What are my chances: Former competitive runner trying to qualify for marathon OT

No. Only a few people have the mental aptitude for distance running at the senior level. The fact that you quit once you didn't have a team around you anymore, and didn't train for 10 years after that shows you do not have that aptitude or self-motivation. The fact that you're considering "a final go" just shows you're a procrastinator and not really that committed. 27 is not even that old.

I predict you don't last more than 4 months.

Thanks for your input. I didn't quit; I made the conscious decision as a senior in high school that I wouldn't be running for the college team and that I would only run for fun. I said nothing about not running for 10 years; I was just running according to my goals at the time, so 20-30 easy miles a week, which was appropriate when I was focusing on school and then work and had absolutely zero competitive aspirations.

So the question isn't really about my motivation-I know it's there if I decide to pursue this-but whether my background would indicate the potential for success. I'll probably go for it for fun anyway and even if I don't get it I'll see where my limits are, but I was curious about what I can expect. Hope that clears things up.

1:31 shows you still got it and haven't lost too much, I think. Very realistic.

The goal may be beyond your ability, but why not try? I doubt you'll run 1:17 then wish you had never even tried. Sounds like you regretted not going after it earlier in life, so go after it now. Ignore the other poster, who is just trolling you.

To have a chance, you're probably going to have to organize almost your whole life around this goal. If you have children or an inflexible job, this could limit you. I would guess you're talking about building up to >80 mpw and running every day. Two runs a day may be needed. Serious attention to diet and all the little details may be needed. Access to good medical care may be needed. A fair amount of money may be needed. Compromising your time / relationships with spouse / significant other or friends may be needed.

1:31 off of 25 mpw is pretty impressive. If you can stay healthy in a build up to sustaining over 65 mpw you will see drastic improvement. Make sure to keep sharp too (your hs mile time shows you have enough wheels). Do some Mile repeats. Race local 5ks. Get that long run up to over 14-15 miles (every other week at first) over several months. Don't give into the people who will tell you to run 100 mpw. You don't have enough time to do any of that business. They have never coached women. Time on feet for a woman in a 75 mile week is pretty close to a man's 100 mile week. Consistent 55-75 mpw will do wonders. I always found 10k training to translate into a better half than marathon-like training.

A ten minute plus improvement is not that big of a stretch.

It's definitely possible, but impossible to know until you try. Depends on how you respond to more mileage and aerobic training. On one hand 91min off minimal training is a really good sign. On the other hand 75min is significantly faster than your 5k PR pace.

1:31 off of that kind of training base is impressive and you can definitely do it, but not yet for Rio OT. Build steadily for 2020 instead of hammering yourself and fighting injuries trying to cram it all in 1.5 years.

And don't think you are too old. You'll be what, 33 by 2020? That's nothing, just look at etc. Meb, Lagat, Geb, Deena for inspiration.

Fan of Hingle wrote:

No. Only a few people have the mental aptitude for distance running at the senior level. The fact that you quit once you didn't have a team around you anymore, and didn't train for 10 years after that shows you do not have that aptitude or self-motivation. The fact that you're considering "a final go" just shows you're a procrastinator and not really that committed. 27 is not even that old.

I predict you don't last more than 4 months.

Do you speak like this to people in real life? I'm guessing not, unless you have some kind of social disorder (apologies if you do).

OP, on the plus side this wonderful contributor does have a point, even if he or she has no interest in helping you - 27 is not that old, and you can still make it if you want to.

I am sorry but I have to say no - it doesn't seem attainable in 1.5 years. For you to compete in the Olympic Trials your 1:31 has to feel like a jog, you have to be able to run a 5k in around 17:00 and there's just not enough time for that. You should try to train during this period though, and see where you can get. If it is enough to run a 3:00 marathon than you maybe have a shot for 2020.

YES! Definitely Yes!

Two a days? Nope.

Race 5km's? Nope.

Train for distance, by running distance. LSD.

No worries about the weight.

When you add miles, you will subtract the pounds.

Of course the factors are your financial situation

and the sacrifices you will make. Do you have a support system? Friends and family who will support you unconditionally? Are you in a happy and healthy environment?

Seven days a week at five a day is 35mpw.

By June you want to be at 40+ So that is a lot of 60 minute and one or two 90 minute runs. Is there a running group you can join? Better yet, a women's running club? Like the Impalas in San Francisco.

Run a test 10km later this summer.

A test ten miler in Aug/Sep on your way to a goal Half in October. By then you could be up to 70mpw.

Sacrifices of time and money are necessary.

Stay away from the doubters, haters and nay-sayers.

What is your weather situation and ability to relocate?

Surviving another Chicago winter in 2014/2015 won't contribute to a positive outlook.

Yes, I have been in the business for decades and have coached dozens of women in the Marathon OT.

Seems possible, but it will be VERY tough. I went from 1:25 to 1:12 (I am male) over the course of a year and a half. My mileage went from ~30 up to 85 during that stretch. When I was at 30 mpw, I basically ran 5-6 5 mile tempo runs per week. As I increased my mileage more and more, I started throwing in long days, recovery days, and tougher workouts. Simple enough. Good luck!

You understand that 18:30 is training pace, and if you are

really serious you have to run 100-140 of them a week.

The women's time are so soft, you might as well "give it a go" for a few months and hit the time.

4:55 and 18:30 aren't even in the same ballpark as 1:15, and furthermore the fact that they were run 10 years ago means they should not even be considered except to say that you have at least some talent.

However you ran 1:31 off not much training which as others have said is a good indicator. Now, as for the 1:15, you have a long road ahead but the journey is what makes this sport fun. Take aim at 1:20 in the next two years with some hard training. You'll have to change lifestyle probably if you're currently finding time for 25-30 mpw. You'll want to run more than twice that to treat this seriously. If you hit 1:20, then think about 1:15. You have to stagger your goals a little more I think. Have fun.

Event "A" "B"

Women Marathon 2:37:00 2:43:00

Why not go for it. I skimmed some of this thread and I don't know about time factors such as kids and work.

Only a year and a half is tough. It took me (I'm a guy) years to jump from 1:17s to 1:14s (my current PR). It might seem forever away but 5.5 years seems more doable. If you can run sub 1:20 as a woman you can find nice perks (free entries, elite status, some small cash awards) even if you don't hit an OT.

Thanks for the input everyone! I agree that it's a lofty and potentially unattainable goal. I'll probably just ramp it up again regardless and see where it goes; I would like to take another stab at competing, if only with myself, before kids are in the picture. First priority will be to get the mileage up.

Why not race a few local 5ks and 10ks for workouts? You can't be so dismissive without an explanation. I think LSD has shown to be effective only with tempos thrown in (hence local 5ks and such). You can't make a claim just because you have coached dozens (over 24?!) women in the OT marathon. (Sadly, I have only coached 1/6 in OT as you have...)

You have some potential and there's really only one way to find out whether or not that means you're OT material (since you're not someone who's so gifted you're running times close to that right off the bat). The way to do that is to train for it and see what happens. If you let some self-imposed ceiling get in the way, you won't make it. If you don't, you might still not make it, but that has to be a risk you're willing to take.

In any case if you can run 91 off of 20-30 mpw, you're going to be really competitive when you actually up that training to something significant, and it's going to be fun, so I highly encourage you to go for it.

FWIW the marathon qualifying time is easier to run than the half-marathon qualifying time.