Did these Kids find a way to cheat the AP test or are they the worlds smartest?

Let the aspiring actuary answer this.

Given that the chance of a randomly selected AP Micro Econ student getting a perfect score is 33/67782, the chance that 11 of 15 randomly selected AP Micro Econ students got a perfect score is

15! / (11! * 4!) * (33/67782) * (32/67781) * ... * (22/67771) * (67785/67770) * (67784/67769) * (67783/67768) * (67782/67767)

-- which I don't want to calculate, but I assure you it's low --

and this is if we assume independence.

jamin wrote:

Let the aspiring actuary answer this.

Given that the chance of a randomly selected AP Micro Econ student getting a perfect score is 33/67782, the chance that 11 of 15 randomly selected AP Micro Econ students got a perfect score is

15! / (11! * 4!) * (33/67782) * (32/67781) * ... * (22/67771) * (67785/67770) * (67784/67769) * (67783/67768) * (67782/67767)

-- which I don't want to calculate, but I assure you it's low --

and this is if we assume independence.

Why would you assume independence? Congrats on wasting your time to accomplish nothing.

You can memorize the one step answers to the AP STEM questions. Memorizaing doesn't help in college though.

Gotta love math in action. gives me a hard on

fdgdghgfnjs wrote:

Why would you assume independence?

That's why I underlined that fact. Obviously there's not independence because students in a given class might be extra motivated if that class is in a prep school or if the teacher offered some big prize to everyone who gets a perfect score.

jamin wrote:

fdgdghgfnjs wrote:

Why would you assume independence?

That's why I underlined that fact. Obviously there's not independence because students in a given class might be extra motivated if that class is in a prep school or if the teacher offered some big prize to everyone who gets a perfect score.

So then why post the(incorrect) math?

jamin wrote:

Let the aspiring actuary answer this.

Given that the chance of a randomly selected AP Micro Econ student getting a perfect score is 33/67782, the chance that 11 of 15 randomly selected AP Micro Econ students got a perfect score is

15! / (11! * 4!) * (33/67782) * (32/67781) * ... * (22/67771) * (67785/67770) * (67784/67769) * (67783/67768) * (67782/67767)

-- which I don't want to calculate, but I assure you it's low --

and this is if we assume independence.

Haters gonna hate, but I appreciate you posting this

jamin wrote:

Let the aspiring actuary answer this.

Given that the chance of a randomly selected AP Micro Econ student getting a perfect score is 33/67782, the chance that 11 of 15 randomly selected AP Micro Econ students got a perfect score is

15! / (11! * 4!) * (33/67782) * (32/67781) * ... * (22/67771) * (67785/67770) * (67784/67769) * (67783/67768) * (67782/67767)

-- which I don't want to calculate, but I assure you it's low --

and this is if we assume independence.

The logical conclusion is Target is not the only outfit to get hacked recently. The odds, I think, are somewhat less than finding a Higgs Boson.

No problema wrote:

Memorizaing doesn't help in college though.

no, but spelling does.

Yes - that's the odds for a random class.

How many classes are sitting these tests though? Over how many subjects?

It's like incredibly rare diseases. The chance of you getting a specific incredibly rare disease is tiny. The chance of you getting one of them is much higher.

If you picked a random class then the odds excluding independence would be as the above and it'd be fantastical. We're actually looking at the odds that one class in the entire population of classes would score this well which becomes much more likely.

fdgdghgfnjs wrote:

jamin wrote:

That's why I underlined that fact. Obviously there's not independence because students in a given class might be extra motivated if that class is in a prep school or if the teacher offered some big prize to everyone who gets a perfect score.

So then why post the(incorrect) math?

Introducing conservatism into your estimates while clearly stating your assumptions is done all the time in actuarial work, especially when the unknown piece(s) of the equation is going to be a rough estimate at best (such as the correlation between the scores of the students in question due to their shared background). Well done Jamin.

-TGD, FSA 2011, MAAA 2013

They're definitely cheaters- the whole worthless lot of 'em!

The OP read the artile incorrectly. What actually happened is much more likely than what the OP wrote.

The artile says the class had 10 students get a perfect score on the AP Microeconomics test. AP test are graded 1-5. When they say 10 students got a perfect score, what they actually mean is that 10 students got a 5. You do not have to answer every question correctly to get a 5.

1 of those 10 students actually did answer every question correctly. He was 1 of 33 in the nation to do so.

The article does not give the number, but I am sure many more than 33 students recieved a 5. It is not far fetched to believe that 10 students from the same class in an elite private school could all score a 5.

I think there are two things at play.

The article says that 11 kids answered EVERY question correctly. They all get a 5. Hundreds (thousands?) of other kids answered enough to get a 5. As the article notes a 5 is equal to an A (or A+) so there is some margin for error there. (The AP exams I took also had essays).

So while the number getting 5 is high, you would have a smaller number getting them all correct.

When I was in HS, we had access to old exam questions. We split them up and each of us wrote up notes and shared them with each other. Low and behold one of the exam questions was one that I wrote up. Bingo, we all smoked that question.

I am sure there is a test data bank of questions for study.

The article isn't very well-written.

Reading it closely, I think all 11 of the students in the class got a 5 out of 5. That's what they are calling a 'perfect' score.

They didn't all get every question correct as the article goes out of its way to mention the one student who got all the questions right and differentiate that person.

-Rojo

My senior year AP class had everyone get a 5 out of 5 on the BC calculus exam. We had 10-15 kids in the class.

Our teacher did consult for the AP so she knew what to teach us but there was no cheating involved.

10 students received a perfect score, 109 of 2.2 million. 33 earned a perfect score on that test out of 67.000+.

I'm sure more than 109 earned a "5" on AP tests.

It says one kid received a perfect score on two separate tests.

So smart, memorized the tests, cheating, Hacking?

rojo wrote:

The article isn't very well-written.

Reading it closely, I think all 11 of the students in the class got a 5 out of 5. That's what they are calling a 'perfect' score.

They didn't all get every question correct as the article goes out of its way to mention the one student who got all the questions right and differentiate that person.

-Rojo

My senior year AP class had everyone get a 5 out of 5 on the BC calculus exam. We had 10-15 kids in the class.

Our teacher did consult for the AP so she knew what to teach us but there was no cheating involved.

That was the first thing I wondered; did 11/15 get 5s, or did 11/15 actually answer every question on the test correctly?

This is AP Economics which is kind of a joke. If it was AP Calc or Physics, that is something else.

The article say the 10 students(1 twice) had perfect scores. The one student was called out because he got 5s on both Macro and Micro economics. The teachers class had 6 dozen students and 87% got 5s which sounds about right.Now cheating is always a possibility but there is also a luck factor. Maybe this year the subjects covered happened to intersect with the questiosn asked a bit better than most years.Also look at the numbers. Micro economics is an easy test to get a perfect score. In general you are looking at 109/2.2 million. But in Microeconomics you are looking at 33/67k. ABout 1/3rd of the perfect scores come from microecomics depite it being like 1/30th of the tests given.Throw in this is some 38k/yr private school you are not looking at a normal population of students.Here is another article : http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_24616918/monta-vista-seniors-find-perfection-ap-computer-science?IADID=Search-www.mercurynews.com-www.mercurynews.com where 3 kids from the same score aced the AP computer science test. 3/19 in the same school is also something that you don't think should happen.But when you have large sample sizes, you will often get odd results.

rojo wrote:

The article isn't very well-written.

Reading it closely, I think all 11 of the students in the class got a 5 out of 5. That's what they are calling a 'perfect' score.

They didn't all get every question correct as the article goes out of its way to mention the one student who got all the questions right and differentiate that person.

-Rojo

My senior year AP class had everyone get a 5 out of 5 on the BC calculus exam. We had 10-15 kids in the class.

Our teacher did consult for the AP so she knew what to teach us but there was no cheating involved.