Predict my Half Marathon Time Please

I'm aiming for somewhere in the 1:09 high to 1:10 range. Is that reasonable or should I start out a little more conservative?

You're probably pretty close. I hope that 5K wasn't a full effort though. But your longer runs/workouts are the more impressive ones so I would think that bodes well.

And yes, go out conservatively, not so much because your goal is ambitious as because it's the best way to run a half. If you are 5-10 seconds slow in the first mile, that's easily made up later.

Hmmm...

The numbers you throw out there are all over the place...

4 miles tempo @ 5:13 and a 5 K race @ basically the same pace?

8 x mile @ faster than 5 K pace?

I hope the 5 K was a very brutal course and day and say, you are in 1:09:xx shape. If you can't break 1:10 on a good day you have overtrained. You're times really indicate that kind of fitness (except the 5 K). Really.

Pikachu

I think you are going to break 1:10 as long as you don't go out too hard. There is a small hill on mile 6 and a slightly steeper but shorter one on mile 9 and besides for that this is a very fast course, basically as flat as it gets. That 10 mile tempo @5:25 pace in the wind is the most impressive workout to me, makes no sense like others have said that your 5K was at the same pace.

That 5k is pathetic compared to your workouts, given any speed you ought to be sub 15 or faster.

The 5K was a spur of the moment decision. Ran 35 minute warm-up and 1 hour cooldown at 7min pace immediately after.

The race felt controlled but hard. Second mile was all uphill and I was fighting the wind solo. It was largely meant not as a full-out effort but as a slightly faster tune up at the tail end of a 92 mile week w/2 hard workouts.

The 4 mile tempo definitely felt harder and I was fighting much harder the last mile. The 5K course was hillier with a headwind for a large part of the race.

If those workouts are in reverse chronological order (most recent first), then I predict 1:09. If the other way, then I predict 1:14.

I'm not sure why the 5K is such a bad time. When your training is mostly strength-based and everything you do is pace-specific you are not supposed to be able to PR in the 5K or run a "McMillan predictor." If you analyze the best elite performances they are not setting PR's or amazing times in any other distance if they are gearing their training for the HM or full marathon. And, if they do, its much earlier in their training cycle when the focus is not yet 100% peak race.

Yea, the 5K is only 512 pace. But that's exactly what a tune up race is. Not fast with an all out-kick but steady focusing on form, stress management and power.

Now, if I had competition...yea the surge to sub-5 min pace may have been required and it would've taken more out of me and perhaps over-stressed certain muscles. When Ryan Hall runs 4:16 in the mile it was b/c certain physiological systems have not been conditioned to readily adapt to the quicker pace. Should Ryan Hall be able to run a road 5K at sub-1350 if he needs to run sub-60? I actually believe that he, as many others, would not break 1350 in a tune up 5K but may be able to go out and break 60 a short while later in the HM.

70:15.

I agree with some others that your long run and 10-mile tempo are much better than almost everything else you listed. You must be an endurance runner with little speed. Those mile reps could easily be much faster, based on your 10-mile tempo and long run.

But regardless, I think 1:09-high is very doable with a wisely-executed negative split. Good luck.

petrada wrote: When Ryan Hall runs 4:16 in the mile it was b/c certain physiological systems have not been conditioned to readily adapt to the quicker pace. Should Ryan Hall be able to run a road 5K at sub-1350 if he needs to run sub-60? I actually believe that he, as many others, would not break 1350 in a tune up 5K but may be able to go out and break 60 a short while later in the HM.

Absolutely right. But Ryan Hall is an exception. Most people that run 14:00 in a tune up race can't touch 60 minutes. And most people that run a 63high half can't run a 2:04:58 3 weeks later :D

He runs pretty slow tune up races because he gives a sh*t about them and peaks just for the marathon. When you are a similar type of runner (very good at high rhythm running & not crazy fast at 3K/5K/10K), then you'll SMASH 1:10, no doubt!

Pikachu

6. 5K race. 16:07 solo effort on slightly rolling hills and windy condition'

1:09 off that!

1:10:07 - Pleased w/the effort. Went out a little too strong, 32:33 at 10k but still able to manage the hills the second half of the course.

ps - this course is not as fast as everybody said it was. There were several hills during the second 1/2. Will not be doing philly next fall...security is crap, start line is obscure and no where to actually do strides or warm-up well.

uh, almost coach!

ukathleticscoach wrote:

6. 5K race. 16:07 solo effort on slightly rolling hills and windy condition'

1:09 off that!

including that one 'tune-up race' threw everyone off, if you look at the rest of the workouts it was clear he was in 109-110 shape.

good work OP!