What can Defar run for 1500 right now?

I honestly do not understand why Defar and Dibaba never run the 1500/Mile.

Non-runners understand what a fast mile is. Non-runners do not understand how crazy fast 14:10 5K is.

Lord of Land wrote:

I honestly do not understand why Defar and Dibaba never run the 1500/Mile.

Money most likely.

very fast. Ventolin's grinder can probably come with a sensible number. She will spanked by Aregawi though, who routinely is

running 3:56.

Lord of Land wrote:

I honestly do not understand why Defar and Dibaba never run the 1500/Mile.

Non-runners understand what a fast mile is. Non-runners do not understand how crazy fast 14:10 5K is.

No, it's the opposite.

People don't care about 1500m (even less so about the mile). They can relate to 5-10.000m, and they are easily impressed with the marathon...

Anywhere else than America, nobody even knows how long a mile is. Try telling them it's a little longer than 4 laps... Wouldn't make sense to them, that people would run such an odd distance.

running a 58 off of 71's doesn't indicate much for the 1500. Let's see her close in 58 off of 68's.

She'd go about 4 flat in the 1500 if she was paced by a good field. But she would not beat Aregawi, Obiri, etc.

Bad Wigins wrote:

running a 58 off of 71's doesn't indicate much for the 1500. Let's see her close in 58 off of 68's.

She'd go about 4 flat in the 1500 if she was paced by a good field. But she would not beat Aregawi, Obiri, etc.

That's saying "Let's see her close in 58 to break the WR by 10 seconds in 14-flat--then maybe she can run a competitive 1500."

Don't you think Jenny Simpson, in Moscow form was capable of sub 4 for 1500? After all, she's done it before while still in CU kit. C'mon, don't you think Meseret Defar would leave her in the dust?

I figure she can run 3:56, and may be the best in the world from 1500-10,000.

No, it's saying one fast lap when you have 100% of your anaerobic power saved up is not the same thing as going fast with a large anaerobic component for 3 3/4 laps.

Look at these impressive 100m splits for Gebrhiwet's last lap in Moscow:

13.81

12.55!!!

13.97

13.05

At 53.38, it was the fastest close in the field, including Farah, and would undoubtedly have been faster if he hadn't been blocked and slowed down at 200m. Obviously he wasn't too tired from that crazy 12.55 if he could speed up again to 13.05, the fastest final 100 of the race.

Does this mean Gebrhiwet can run sub-3:30 just like Mo? No, the 1500 is a different animal. Even if he'd closed in 52 it wouldn't mean he can string 3 3/4 56's together. People thought Aregawi would win the Stockholm 800 for the same reason, believing her closing speed would apply to a radically different kind of race.

I dunno, I wouldn't be surprised if Gebrhiwet could run sub 3:30. Somewhere between 3:28 and 3:31 is definitely where he is at.

Bad Wigins wrote:Does this mean Gebrhiwet can run sub-3:30 just like Mo? No, the 1500 is a different animal

yes & no

he has likely 50.5/51.0 speed ( slightly slower than mo at high-49/50-flat ) & last year ran 12'47 with a sub-par 4th km - worth probably 12'45 at even-pace & presumably was in that shape in moscow

possible lines of fit

51.0 / 1'47.6 ->3'31.3 , 7'23.6 , 12'45.1

50.5 / 1'46.9 ->3'30.5 , 7'23.1 , 12'45.7

a fast 1500 but no mo

People thought Aregawi would win the Stockholm 800 for the same reason, believing her closing speed would apply to a radically different kind of race.

no

i woudn't go by a tired effort after moscow

well rested & motivated she shoud be looking at 1'57

yyy wrote:She will spanked by Aregawi though, who routinely is running 3:56.

no

she woud crush aregawi

people seem to have learnt nothing from mo

they offered him 3'30/3'31 at best & he hammered a 3'28

defar is comparable 5k/10k talent to mo & her difference from 1500wr shoud be similar to mo's ( & believe me 3'50.46 is not better than 3'26.00 )

on that basis

3'50.46 * ( 3'28.81/3'26.00 ) = 3'53.60

the line of fit i have had for defar/diby since their near 14'10 days 5y ago has been

~ 56.0 / 1'58.5 ->

3'53.3

8'10.9

14'08.1

29'37.4

( albeit i'd expect them to have been a handful of secs shy of the 10k as i don't believe they were "fully developed" 10k runners back then ( unlike a paula ) & still don't - better at 5k than 10k )

that tallies well with ratio estimate

i'm sure aregawi coud claim low-3'55 in her perfect race but i woud have expected a peak defar/diby to have crushed her by coupla secs in flat-out race gun-to-tape

learn from mo...

Her PB is 4:02 which she ran in the middle of 2010.

She closed the last 800m in 2:04, what could she run for an 800m? Sub 2?

defar would crush aregawi lol..........

you got lucky with that 3-28 ventolin and you benn living off it since

I think she could step on the track and run 3:57-58 in a well paced race.

Horst Girth wrote:

I think she could step on the track and run 3:57-58 in a well paced race.

I will admit that I am not a track expert. With that said I don't think Jordan has been in a fast 1500 race since she started doing the 5000 and 10,000s. But with her increased endurance, could she also run in the 3:57-58 range too? Or maybe even faster?

3:26 is achievable by someone like Kiprop. There will be more like him.

No woman is running 3:50. That's about four seconds quicker than what you can consider realistic.

Ventolin.

Mary Slaney had a comparable 3k. Slaney's best 1500 was 3:57.12. Do you think Defar has a lot more speed at 800/1500 than Slaney? I'd like to see Slaney/Defar side by side in your model.

alanson wrote:

Ventolin.

Mary Slaney had a comparable 3k. Slaney's best 1500 was 3:57.12. Do you think Defar has a lot more speed at 800/1500 than Slaney? I'd like to see Slaney/Defar side by side in your model.

Slaney never ran 14:10

3.49