Down goes the Dow

Might have to read his book wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

Yeah sure, only it was maser and not you who predicted it

Wow. GOI has been warning of this for years and you clowns have been ridiculing him

Now it happens and you tell this lie?

What kind of person are you?

The problem is GOI has been predicting a crash for years and years.

So you do admit he has been predicting this. So you then have to admit the poster was lying when he said "it was maser and not you who predicted it"

So why comment?

seattle prattle wrote:

Futures fairly stable at approx. down 3% to 4%. I was expecting it would be worse than that. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Euro markets down 4%.

We are so shell shocked we now think that's pretty good

I'll parry this as a sort of hypothetical thought experiment.

First, how do you determine "at risk?" What's the age cutoff? What's the qualifying/disqualifying preexisting condition?

Second, the larger problem is this : imagine many healthy people all getting this at once. If even only 20% develop harsh symptoms and require trips to the hospital, then it'll overload the system, and in fact, in normal years of bad flu outbreaks it very nearly does. Now you have a bunch of hospital beds filled with people who have COVID-19. What happens when run of the mill accidents need to be treated in an ER? Suddenly, things we take as routine in modern times become life threatening again simply because we don't have the infrastructure. In other words, it trickles up quickly.

Another interesting aspect of this is to what degree do States owe the businesses they're asking to close down? Is it like an eminent domain thing? Should the States/Fed cover fair value operating costs or something? Dunno

the idiot wrote:

old math professor wrote:Yesterday (Saturday) there were over 24,000 verified cases, so looks like about 3k new ones today.

In the interest of correcting erroneous information, the confirmed case counts for the US Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday (drawing from the data at the Johns Hopkins site you've linked) were 13677, 19100, 25489 and 33272, implying daily changes of 5423, 6389 and 7783. If you were just looking at the total US cases on the map interface, please be aware that some countries (including the US) update throughout the day, whereas others (including Italy as an example) don't seem to.

All that to say, I don't know where you got 3k, but it is not a correct representation of the change from Saturday to Sunday (actual value 7783).

Fair enough, corrected.

old math professor wrote:Fair enough, corrected.

Again, not interested in further discussion / debate, but would be interested to know whether this revised factual information has had any influence on your current beliefs?

Math man wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No, like you, the poster just wants to argue endlessly about the same thing. Believe what you wish, make no matter to me.

You are ill informed and need to learn more about the subject before you post.

Could you maybe tell us what s/he got wrong instead of automatically dismissing someone because they disagree with you?

More panic from the Fed, now buying corporates and municipals.Oh, surprise, the market turns up, for now.

futures now up a percent after fed commits to 'open ended' funding.

open ended. Think about that. wow.

This has to be inflationary...so much new money out there chasing fewer goods.

will be interesting to see how tips act, vs. regular treasuries.

agip wrote:

futures now up a percent after fed commits to 'open ended' funding.

open ended. Think about that. wow.

This has to be inflationary...so much new money out there chasing fewer goods.

will be interesting to see how tips act, vs. regular treasuries.

This will be a disaster. Fed is desperately creating new money for the Big Banks in an attempt to shore up the market. It works a little bit for a little while, and then back to the swoon.

Desperation = fear = tanked market

A rollover would be bad.

Just woke up to QE infinity.

Gold is rising. It’s over. Those of us alive years from now will look upon this as the day, the event, the last desperate attempt to right a sinking ship, exactly the same as has been done before.

It will spread from the USA.

JUST LIKE the fly on my window, we have been doomed to mechanically repeat past behaviors.

I know history is most often incremental, and maybe this time there will be some subtle differences, but so far it’s the same playbook, pretty much exactly.

mas, can you be more specific? You're writing in mas-speak, which maybe dogs can hear, but idiots cannot... :-)

Math man wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I don’t need to explain anything. It is a similar metric to Buffett and Schiller. Hussman is very open to questions on Twitter, but you don’t have the balls to embarrass yourself.

Hussman has been asked on Twitter numerous times to explain his calculations. Like you, he has avoided the question.

This and much more on his website. You don’t try very hard:

Haven’t even had coffee/breakfast yet. Maybe a bit more deflation, then hyperinflation a real possibility around the corner. Will pick this up when coherent.

Currencies: diversify your holdings. FX needs leverage.

Giles Corey wrote:

This will be a disaster. Fed is desperately creating new money for the Big Banks in an attempt to shore up the market.

What exactly do you think is the point of the Federal Reserve.

Maserati wrote:

then hyperinflation a real possibility around the corner.

Sorry, but you're still asleep and in fact dreaming. Oil is approaching a 20 year low and the unemployment we're about to see is going to be the biggest contraction of monetary supply since the Great Depression. What inflationary pressures are there exactly?

Racket wrote:What inflationary pressures are there exactly?

I had asked mas earlier in the thread about the possibility of hyperinflation, which I have experienced before when serving overseas in military conflict. My question was not specific to US, rather more general, wondering whether vulnerable economies might experience hyperinflation. Hence I wondered about the potential to make (or lose) money trading currency.