All chosen dates and time windows are arbitrary, except maybe the data point that is today.
Igy has tried to prove that point, but has not done a very good job of it. He has proceeded by describing contrasting examples, rather than by simple explanation. 10? 20? There is nothing magic about base-10. In fact, base-2 has many advantages in math.
Likewise there is nothing magic or significant about a local minimum or maximum in a long data series.
Posters here seem to all be arguing about the appropriateness of superimposing past patterns onto the future. I approach things differently—I look around at what exists now, do research to find out why it is so and exactly what it means, and act on that information over short time-frames. I have been wrong, for instance my belief that the dollar would sink significantly last year, but I change my thinking when interventions warrant it—so I bought a small b&h and a big chunk of AAPL and some others.
The point is that from where I stand, Igy has the better view. He doesn’t do a great job articulating it, and he is running up against articles of faith that are ingrained, and frankly indispensable in maintaining this bull market. Self-fulfilling prophecy is a big thing, but one really needs to be aware of the fact that there are whales and controllers in the face of which one is powerless, if one adheres to the current retail philosophy.
Risk doesn’t matter, until it’s too late. Retail acts as though there are no risks, or as though they are minimal. Retail is often little more than an amusement ride—and yes, this year was worth the cost of admission, so far.
Just recognize it for what it is—a uniquely human endeavor, with everything that entails.