Why does Stephen Kiprotich, a 2:07 marathoner, win championship races?

Bump.

I’m baffled by the fact that when looking at the result of nearly every major marathon race run around the world, one seems to come across about 7 Kenyans in the first 10 - yet in the world championships marathon just completed, they could only manage a ninth and twelfth place!

What happened?

No rabbits, drug testing, warm weather, absence of a number of fast guys who are saving it for a "money" race are all factors. On top of that, he really only emerged last year at London. Assuming he had some recovery from that he really hasn't had time to do much more than recover and get ready for the World's.

Championship marathon running in less than ideal conditions, and no pacemakers, is a different type of racing to big city marathon running. And Kiprotich runs best under a championship marathon environment. And if you look at the history of Olympic and world champ winners and medalists, its often not the fastest PR guys that win!

What are the chances we see him run under 2:05 and win a major marathon?

Joe Binks wrote:

I’m baffled by the fact that when looking at the result of nearly every major marathon race run around the world, one seems to come across about 7 Kenyans in the first 10 - yet in the world championships marathon just completed, they could only manage a ninth and twelfth place!

What happened?

Again, a lot of the better Kenyans will skip something like the Worlds and go for an autumn race with a big payday. Beyond that, think about your question. It's usually seven Kenyans in the first ten but it's rarely the same Kenyans each time. There is some overlap but one reason we call them "the Kenyans" now is because there's not a Henry Rono or Ibraham Hussein who repeatedly wins stuff. It's more often the Kenyan du Jour, the guy having the best day, who emerges from a large pack of Kenyans. Put ten Kenyans in a race and several of them will contend for the win and others will fade. Limit them to three in a race and you may have eliminated the ones who would have had the big day and placed well or won.

Josh Hamilton's Addiction wrote:

How does he beat guys with PRs two minutes faster than him?

It's that pretty smile and the deadly zig-zag attack...it'll total kill your legs and demoralize you.

PRs don't tell you much, especially in the marathon. Look at Meb Keflezighi (2:09). I have no problem believing he could run faster in Dubai, Rotterdam, or Berlin in the next couple years if he wants. He also had the advantage of being overlooked in both races. The Kenyans made a couple stupid moves in the marathon and the Ethiopians tried to control this race while Stephen waited back. A lot easier when you don't have a big target on your back.

HRE wrote:

absence of a number of fast guys who are saving it for a "money" race

This IS a money race and it had plenty of fast guys.

3rd today (Tola) has 2:04.xy from Dubai. That he can manage

only 2:10 today is baffling indeed. Maybe he peaked in January??

Josh Hamilton's Addiction wrote:What makes him such a good championship racer? How does he beat guys with PRs two minutes faster than him?

He can surge. Then surge again and again.

And I guess he is, at least, a potential sub 2:06 runner.

yyy wrote:

3rd today (Tola) has 2:04.xy from Dubai. That he can manage

only 2:10 today is baffling indeed. Maybe he peaked in January??

Nobody ever replicates Dubai results. Course is obviously short.

Raptured wrote:

Nobody ever replicates Dubai results. Course is obviously short.

I have been saying this for months, always get ridiculed for it. "IAAF certified" my ass.

The only other explanation is the testing, or the lack thereof, in Dubai.

bubbadeeboo wrote:

Josh Hamilton's Addiction wrote:

How does he beat guys with PRs two minutes faster than him?

It's that pretty smile and the deadly zig-zag attack...it'll total kill your legs and demoralize you.

This has to be one of the funniest quotes I've ever seen on lets run.. they have to place this on the main board. Brilliant...!

HRE wrote:

No rabbits, drug testing, warm weather, absence of a number of fast guys who are saving it for a "money" race are all factors. On top of that, he really only emerged last year at London. Assuming he had some recovery from that he really hasn't had time to do much more than recover and get ready for the World's.

This and leave out the drug testing remark.

No rabbits and warm weather.

I wonder if there was massive money paid on place AND time if they would go for it.

yyy wrote:

3rd today (Tola) has 2:04.xy from Dubai. That he can manage

only 2:10 today is baffling indeed. Maybe he peaked in January??

Like we said: hot weather, no pacers.

Josh Hamilton's Addiction wrote:

Just saw the results from today's marathon and Kiprotich took home gold for the second straight year. I looked up his Wiki page and it looks like his PR is only 2:07:20. What makes him such a good championship racer? How does he beat guys with PRs two minutes faster than him?

Kiprotich's track times are also really ugly. He's like 13:20 and 27:50, barely under 28. What's this guy's history? He is only 24.

Take a wild guess...

23C and a completely flat course. 6minutes off his PB. He

must cannot have been in his best shape.

yyy wrote:

23C and a completely flat course. 6minutes off his PB. He

must cannot have been in his best shape.

23 C is warm for a marathon. ESPECIALLY when it's sunny. Every sub-2:05 in history has been run between 5 and 10 C. That's 73 degrees F versus 45 degrees F for you Yanks.

Furthermore, there are a lot more factors when it comes to fast marathons. Road surfaces matter (Rotterdam, Dubai, Berlin, Frankfurt all superb), pacing matters (notice his Desisa's PR is 14:4x pace and the first 5k was 15:5x), wind... Dubai is about as close to a "bubble" as you can get.

Think about Los Angeles and Beijing. Much warmer and

faster times by runners with slower PBs...