Men's 26.2--Tergat going to be like Paula?

I thought that it was interesting that deena was the only favorite who decided to go out easy and start picking off the carnage later in the race. I would assume that more than 1 guy will have learned from her and several will follow the same strategy. I don't think any of the top guys have a lot of experience running championship marathons on hot hilly courses so tergat should be fine in that regard. He is tall though. Hopefully he as a Nike ice vest for the start.

he hasn't raced a hilly course, but remember that one picture slideshow that showed those beastly hills that he trained on in Kenya? I'm sure he's more than up to it to run some tough hills.

Tergat is a monster in XC though. I think he can handle terrible conditions.

Tergat is a great runner, but I don't think he is a shoe-in for the gold. Didn't he lose the first couple of marathons that he ran? He obviously was able to put it together for the WR race on a fast course and he has run some fast times, but his win/loss record in marathons is hardly overwhelming. Does anyone have a list of his marathon results?

In what respect has Paula not proved herself to be tough compared to tergat? Is running a 10km or marathon from the front not tough. Did you see the conditions that she ran 30m01 10km in Munich on her own? Does taking 3minutes of the WR not demand toughness? WHen she ran london for the first time she threw up promptly after crossing the line. Get a grip. Paula was struggling when she lost the lead as she wouldn't have voluntarily dropped back, so she gutted it out for a long way. One thing Paula isn't is weak willed.

you cannot compare paula and tergat, it will not happen to tergat solely based on the fact that he is black.

what about okayo?

Paula being from the british isles was a longshot to begin with.

She would have a chance had she moved and lived in florida for a full yaar prior to the olympics.

Training in englang where 70 dergees is a heat wave is great for the london mara but not for a race in 90 degrees.

The two front finishing african girls were puking all over the finishoing area afterwards. That tells u about the conditions. The winner and deena were the onlyones left standing. The rest were puking and getting medical attention including many hot weather natives.

paula doesnt train in england for extensive periods, she trains in france, spain and florida. her preparation is (was) second to none. it didnt work for her y'day but it would be difficult to fault her preparation.

tergat is NOT going to be paula. paula is awesome but more of a time trialer, tergat is a competitor. as far as excuses go, people need to stop making them for her... everyone knew it was going to be HOT & HILLY, long before the gun went off. she prepared that way, she lost that way. its done and over with and all the Brits should be concerned and celebrating for their boy East who has been running brillantly.

wannabekila wrote:

her preparation is (was) second to none.

obviously it was second to a lot of people.

she might've worked hard, but she did not prepare well.

16 of 82 female competitors didn't finish, and this included several competitors expected to finish near the front.

No one is immune from the conditions, whether their PR is 2:05 or 2:15. I expect roughly 20% of the men will DNF (just as in the womens race), and this will include some very big names.

It is really impossible to predict how people will respond to the heat and hills. Tergat is still as reasonable a bet as anyone, but there are no favorites in a race like this.

Judging by the womens race, and assuming the Japanese men train in a similar environment, I think they are the safest bet to get a medal.

Barring injury or foul play, I don't see how Tergat wont be in the top 3 here. Unless the attack on his family has skewed his lazer-like focus of the past few months, it's his to lose. Paula was very secluded and reserved so I thought it was risky to KNOW she was ready to win, but Paul has been very openly detailing his Athens-aimed training and focused isolation recovery. Its a risk to say that any training is adequate, since no two hills are the same, but you have to say a world record holder who was supposedly putting in 40km a day on the Ngongs...well, has a really good chance.

Deena's strategy worked, but she needed a lot of help to make it work. It was just as likely that Alemu would have gotten third, or Radcliffe, as that PR would drop or Alemu couldn't cover Deena's move late in the race.

To look at it another way, a group of 10 runners broke fairly early from the main pack. Looking at that 10, I said to myself, these are the medal winners. My pick was Ndereba, any of the Japanese, Alemu, and then Okayo or Radcliffe in 4th-5th. 2/3 of the medal winners came from that pack of 10, and 6/7 of the top 7. The only one who moved up into medal contention was Deena. One might have expected this, because she had the 4th best time going in.

Terget would be smart to act as Ndereba did. If there's a large pack going out, you probably should go with it. As we saw in the women's race, your medal chances are greater when going with the leaders than holding back (66% vs. 33%).

Word has it that Tergat was dropping the odd 60k day in there... none tougher... none...

Tergat holds all the cards, he is the fastest 10k guy in the field & the world record holder in the event.

Running the same strategy as the Japanese womens winner would probably work for him too. He certainly has no reason to go out & lead wire to wire, let some other idiot try to do that.

That being said, if it's not your day, no strategy is going to work, you're going to end up as roadkill like Paula.

Just my 2 cents but look for Stefano Baldini, Danielle Caminetti, the South African team and and the japanese to be at the front with 5k to go. I would not be surpried to see Hendrick Ramaala with a medal. Look at his 215 in the heat and humidity of India this past February. Culpepper will be right there as well.

Tergat would be well advised to turn the race into a 10k - it is a mostly downhill 10k - which with his long legs and superlative 10k personal best - would seem to augur well for him.

This having been said, this course is really tough. Upon leaving the coastline, the mostly uphill stretch of the course prior to the 30k mark is really challenging. If one is running to win, it isn't easy to let go of the lead in the middle of the race - quite often - a cadre of runners keep going and don't come back - but the there is a price of potential destruction on the hills. This is no course to be the favorite or to run like one.

Tergat and Paula are very similar...both WR holders in the marathon, both have GREAT 10K track speed, both are great XC runners, and both are considered favorites going in. It could be argued that Paula was even a much heavier favorite than Tergat--she had a flawless record over 26.2, and Tergat, although now a sub 2:05 guy, had plenty of struggles with the marathon--and that was over flat courses. I would like to see Tergat win, but I do think he is going to have a possible Paula breakdown, and perhaps at the same point as well...those hills are insane. Either way, it is going to be a VERY interesting race, and if it has even half the drama of the womens's race, it is going to be one for the ages!!!