We say there are only 11 Americans who might medal and we've rnaked them 1-11. What do you think?
We say there are only 11 Americans who might medal and we've rnaked them 1-11. What do you think?
yeah...i definitely don't have anybody to add to that list. i think you could've stopped after 9 though.
question: whats the deal with flanagan and her competition? i feel like there should be more africans in front of her. she's 32 years old
her only plus is that she ran 31 solo earlier this year (months ago though)
i'd give leo a better chance than shalane
I'm confident will medal
1) Symmonds
2) Simpson
3) Solomon
4) Martinez
Good shot (3rd-4th ish)
5) Montano
Decent shot (3rd-6th ish)
6) Rupp (10k)
7) Jager
Outside shot
8) Lagat
9) Flanagan
Needs something crazy
10) Rupp (5k)
11) All US 1500m men
12) Brandon Johnson
13) Ritz/Derrick
No f*cking way
Everyone else
Watch out for Brandon Johnson. He has already PRed 4 times this year and the 800 is wide open.
I think everyone is writing Bernard Lagat a little early. I think this is his last outdoor season so obviously he wants to go out big. I think he will be in medal contention with 200 to go... and you know what that means. And Lagat had the ability to get bronze last year, just bad tactics cost him in the last 100.
I'm a big BL fan, but the 5000m field is sooooo deep and has both guys good off a hard pace and guys who have monster kicks. Much tougher field than the 10000m. I think it will take something special for Lagat to medal.
As much as I like Derrick, he's definitely in the no f*cking way category.
Why makes people think the 5000m is so deep this year?
Farah and Yenew are probably the best picks for gold.
Hagos, with all he's done this year, could probably do no better than silver.
Then there's Longosiwa, who would have lost to Lagat last year if he hadn't been tripped.
Isiah Koech lost to Lagat last year, DESPITE Lagat being tripped.
Gebremenskel is out.
Rupp lost to Lagat at USAs.
As long as Lagat has fixed whatever problem caused him to drop out of Monaco, I think he's a sure bet for a medal. I mean, I doubt he would have announced Monaco as a 5k American Record attempt if he wasn't in shape for it. The only question is how his hip has healed since then.
You forgot about Edwin Soi, who has the WL, and has already shown the ability to outkick Farah. I'd love for Lagat to medal, but with Farah, Alamirew, and Soi, I don't see it happening.
A High Schooler wrote:
As much as I like Derrick, he's definitely in the no f*cking way category.
That's fair
osm wrote:
You forgot about Edwin Soi, who has the WL, and has already shown the ability to outkick Farah. I'd love for Lagat to medal, but with Farah, Alamirew, and Soi, I don't see it happening.
Ahhhh, yes, I forgot about Soi. As good as Soi was at Prefontaine, remember how he got beat handily by Yenew and Hagos in Rome. Winning time was 12:54, Soi ran about 12:58. And although he ran 12:51 in Monaco to beat Rop, Rop isn't exactly a big kicker so the win was almost expected.
Anyways, while Soi certainly looks better on paper, all I'm saying is that if Lagat shows up healthy, he certainly has a chance to beat Soi, Yenew, or even both.
LetsRun.com wrote:
We say there are only 11 Americans who might medal and we've rnaked them 1-11. What do you think?
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2013/08/assessing-the-us-mid-d-and-distance-hopefuls-odds-for-a-medal-we-rank-them-1-through-11/
I think Shannon Rowbury is going to medal in the 5000.
xenomorph wrote:
Ahhhh, yes, I forgot about Soi. As good as Soi was at Prefontaine, remember how he got beat handily by Yenew and Hagos in Rome. Winning time was 12:54, Soi ran about 12:58. And although he ran 12:51 in Monaco to beat Rop, Rop isn't exactly a big kicker so the win was almost expected.
Anyways, while Soi certainly looks better on paper, all I'm saying is that if Lagat shows up healthy, he certainly has a chance to beat Soi, Yenew, or even both.
But he still ran 12:51. I'm not saying he's going to medal, but I'm saying he has a shot. As do about 8 other guys. Which is why the 5000m is tough to pick this year. I picked Farah, Alamirew, Gebriwhet, and will probably look like a fool.
I also think Rowbury has a chance. Especially without Dibaba. In a slow race she is a huge threat.
No. I like Rowbury as much as the next guy, but she couldn't hang with Huddle at USAs. Sure she was tired from the 1500, and I expect her to be our top finisher, but she'll be way off the pace of the medalists at the beginning of the final lap. Count on it. 5th would be an incredible performance, top 10 is likely.
How is Johnson not on the list of those who you could fathom medaling. You talked about how much of a crapshoot making the final in the 800 is. If a couple favorites get unlucky and he makes the final he's got a great shot. Plus he's got one of the better times on the year and has run solidly recently.
I think that of all the runners mentioned here, the Letsrun guys have most underestimated Brenda Martinez, whom I would even consider ranking about Montano.
Yes, Martinez has not been to a World Championships before. But winning Diamond League races in controlled, tactical fashion plus placing a strong, narrowly beaten 2nd place at the U.S. Championships--there is enough evidence to suggest that Martinez is not one to lose her cool on the big stage, and her controlled style of racing will serve her well in this respect. On top of that, I have to think that her endurance work is going to leave her plenty fresh for the final.
My picks are this:
1. Martinez -- For the reasons above.
2. Symmonds -- His speed work and a more aggressive running style, showcased in London, will serve him well in the Moscow final.
3. Simpson -- I like Simpson's chances, but I think the women's 1500 is more competitive than people are making it out to be lately: Obiri, Kipyegon, Dibaba, Aregawi. These are big names, while Cain remains something of a dark horse.
4. Solomon -- He's going to find himself in good position with 200 to go and may have just enough left in the tank to hold on.
5. Montano -- I think Montano's odds are excellent, but I just anticipate Martinez to edge her out--though it's possible, as some are saying, that we get 2 medals in the women's 800.
6. Rupp -- Position is going to be everything for Rupp heading into the last lap.
7. Lagat -- Monaco was a disappointing result for him, and the field is so strong, but Lagat is just as good at placing himself in the right spot with 150m to go.
8. Centrowitz -- That 3:58 raises a lot of eyebrows, but if he's able to peak like he did at USA's, he's going to be in the mix. Like Simpson, he faces a deep field, but Kiplagat can be hot/cold, and I am not convinced that Souleiman's racing style is going to translate so well into championship racing.
9. Manzano -- It's entirely conceivable he repeats his silver medal performance, but I just have to give slightly better odds to Centrowitz.
10. Flanagan -- It could really be anyone after Dibaba, but I just have a feeling that an unheralded youngster or two has the chance to edge Flanagan out.
11. Jager -- Kipruto, Mekhissi, Kemboi--these are tough, tough athletes to beat, but anything could happen, and with a falter Jager could move ahead of one of these guys.
Solomon performs when it counts (aka the olympics/US Championships) of late. He should be first!
Bump. So who was most on the money?
San Vicente wrote:
Solomon performs when it counts (aka the olympics/US Championships) of late. He should be first!
How come so many on a runners site do not understand the sport of T&F?
US Championships are basically a qualifying race. And Solomon, while talented, is not now, and has never been, someone who is known for performing 'when it counts'.