watched Alysia Montano finish up a track workout today...

She has fantastic speed for an 800m runner, but its her second 400 that is suspect. It seems that the 600 might be a better distance for her.

In fact, she did set the American record for the indoor 600m earlier this year with a time of 1:23.59.

The problem is her one note strategy of always taking the lead...she breaks the wind for others and makes her self a target for good closers.

She needs to be able to run more than one strategy.

Couldn't be better for the US: Montana goes out hard, Martinez is a great closer. I wish them both well, but odds are only one gets a medal.

alanson wrote:

Couldn't be better for the US: Montana goes out hard, Martinez is a great closer. I wish them both well, but odds are only one gets a medal.

Actually I see it happening like this: Montano takes it out hard, with Nyonsaba sitting behind her and Martinez further back. Nyonsaba passes Montano with 300 to go while Montano is just hanging on and Martinez is starting to make her move. Nyonsaba goes on to win by a good margin, while Montano fades in the final straight while Martinez barely passes Montano at the line. Nyonsaba gold, Martinez silver, Montano bronze.

NOP Follower wrote:

alanson wrote:

Couldn't be better for the US: Montana goes out hard, Martinez is a great closer. I wish them both well, but odds are only one gets a medal.

Actually I see it happening like this: Montano takes it out hard, with Nyonsaba sitting behind her and Martinez further back. Nyonsaba passes Montano with 300 to go while Montano is just hanging on and Martinez is starting to make her move. Nyonsaba goes on to win by a good margin, while Montano fades in the final straight while Martinez barely passes Montano at the line. Nyonsaba gold, Martinez silver, Montano bronze.

My guess is Montano will wilt under the pressure somehow, either go out too hard...and fade worse...due to heats and semi's etc.

Unless you are undeniably David Rudisha last year, Montano strategy almost never works in the biggest of meets.

Yeah, well I'd like to workout with Alyssa Milano.

NOP Follower wrote:

Actually I see it happening like this: Montano takes it out hard, with Nyonsaba sitting behind her and Martinez further back. Nyonsaba passes Montano with 300 to go while Montano is just hanging on and Martinez is starting to make her move. Nyonsaba goes on to win by a good margin, while Montano fades in the final straight while Martinez barely passes Montano at the line. Nyonsaba gold, Martinez silver, Montano bronze.

i agree. i have also predicted that martinez nips mantano in the last 20-30m. dunno about niyonsaba, haven't watched any of her races this year though i'm pretty sure she's the world leader

Stultifying Strategy wrote:

she breaks the wind for others

The effect of "wind breaking" is entirely psychological.

The effect of PACING others is real.

I'm not sure Montano will do well through rounds, especially if she has to go near all out to qualify. I hope she makes it to the final.

NOP Follower wrote:

alanson wrote:

Couldn't be better for the US: Montana goes out hard, Martinez is a great closer. I wish them both well, but odds are only one gets a medal.

Actually I see it happening like this: Montano takes it out hard, with Nyonsaba sitting behind her and Martinez further back. Nyonsaba passes Montano with 300 to go while Montano is just hanging on and Martinez is starting to make her move. Nyonsaba goes on to win by a good margin, while Montano fades in the final straight while Martinez barely passes Montano at the line. Nyonsaba gold, Martinez silver, Montano bronze.

Did the Russians all fall in the first lap or something? I wouldn't underestimate them, especially Savinova. Do you think they will make Nyonsaba undergo gender testing like Semenya?

I loved her on Who's the Boss. Didn't realize she had become a competitive runner.

So if she doesn't run like a retard she might have a chance.

NOP Follower wrote:

Actually I see it happening like this: Montano takes it out hard, with Nyonsaba sitting behind her and Martinez further back. Nyonsaba passes Montano with 300 to go while Montano is just hanging on and Martinez is starting to make her move. Nyonsaba goes on to win by a good margin, while Montano fades in the final straight while Martinez barely passes Montano at the line. Nyonsaba gold, Martinez silver, Montano bronze.

Listen:

Each nation mostly have the responsibility to test their own athletes, including some WADA testing. But out of competition testing is mostly done by an athletes national doping organization.

Russians will let their athletes dope this year, then before and during Moscow, no doping so WADA won't find anything, russians medal again.

Last year they didn't compete outside of Russia until the Olympics.

Nyonsaba is strong, and she had no problem going out with Montano at Pre in 57 and backing that up with a second lap in 59 seconds. In this respect, NOP Follower's prediction sounds like it could be on the money.

I've said it on another thread before, but my only question about Nyonsaba is experience; it's entirely possible that she undoes herself in a semi-final, going out or closing too hard to have much in the tank for the last 150m of the final. Montano may not have the ideal amount of strength, but she's been to the big dance a couple times now, and at this point she knows how to handle the rounds. Martinez, on the other hand--her strength is so impressive that I have a tough time thinking she won't get into the final with energy to spare.

The Russians are so cagey with pre-Championships competition that it's difficult to guess what kind of form exactly they will be in, but I have to think that 1 or 2 of them, doping or not, will be in the mix.

I really think it will come down to a 4-way battle between Nyonsaba, Savinova, Martinez, and Montano, and with Montano in the race, it will more or less be rabbited through 500m, which is good news for Martinez--the competition will get relatively strung out by that point, so moving around people, always tricky business in the 800m, will hopefully be easy enough to earn her a well-deserved medal.

What? She's never had a problem advancing through the rounds. In my opinion, she's one of the best when it comes to running rounds. Definitely one of the more consistent ones.

If Montano sits back and goes with 500 to go, I don't see anyone beating her. She has the speed to out-duel anyone in a longer kick like 500-600 to go.

Bmart has one of the nastiest kicks i've seen in the second lap of an 800. It'll be interesting to watch the two styles go head to head.