Rowbury - what can she do in the 5000m?

Top American in Moscow.

If the pace is fast she should break 15 this year.

I predict a top 5 finish for her in Moscow

yyy wrote:

With 1500m 4:01 speed I say 14:45. Ventolin^3, where is your grinder????

14:45 would mean running this 3k in 8:41, then running another 2k in 6:04. doubtful.

this race should put her around 15 flat, but as i'm pretty sure they went out slow, i'll say 14:55.

reed wrote:

yyy wrote:

With 1500m 4:01 speed I say 14:45. Ventolin^3, where is your grinder????

14:45 would mean running this 3k in 8:41, then running another 2k in 6:04. doubtful.

this race should put her around 15 flat, but as i'm pretty sure they went out slow, i'll say 14:55.

Remember, in Moscow it's not as simple as 4:01 -> 14:xx. It's a race with heats. Everybody in the final is going to know what speed she's bringing, so this is going to be interesting. She just ran the WL at 3000. The Africans have to bet that Rowbury dies in the last 2000: If she doesn't, she'll kill them in the last lap.

rowbury will be killing zero africans in the last lap. i'm excited for her like you are, but lets please be real here.

abstracts are for mice wrote:

rowbury will be killing zero africans in the last lap. i'm excited for her like you are, but lets please be real here.

Agreed. She has a good chance at getting top 10 and being first Non-African.

Rowbury will win gold, with Huddle getting silver, Dibaba will fade quickly she's not as good as any American woman, if she gets top ten she will be lucky.

abstracts are for mice wrote:

rowbury will be killing zero africans in the last lap. i'm excited for her like you are, but lets please be real here.

If the pack doesn't go with Dibaba there might be some space for a sprinter like Rowbury...

yyy wrote:With 1500m 4:01 speed I say 14:45. Ventolin^3????

can't help much

that 2'05sb is really not helpful at all

with 4'01sb, i'm pretty sure she coud still go 2'01/2'02 if running her best possible 800 currently

also, i'm not sure if she's a fully "filled out" 5k gal, or still just a 1500 gal who's giving the 5k a shot

( usually takes a coupla years+ to acheive your full potential at 5k when moving up from 1500 )

she coud definitely claim to be in about 4-flat shape currently as that 4'01 had an appallingly slow 800 split of 2'12, when 2'08 was expected ( 4s too slow - majority of that 4s is flushed away permanently )

i think her current prelim line of fit maybe

~ 57.0 / 2'01.3 ->

3'59.9

8'27.1 !

14'38.8

30'48.8

albeit i'm not convinced her endurance yet lasts "perfectly" to 5k ( might be closer in the 3k )

even if it did to 5k currently, i don't think ~ 14'40 is going to be of any threat if there is any hint of reasonable pace in moscow 5k