Where are Kenyans, they seem to be racing less this year

I have actually noted this since Lausanne and probably even before.

In the Paris Diamond League on saturday, the women's steeple had about six Ethiopiand, no Kenyans. Same thing to the 5k.

Even during other years, they still participate even with the national trials looming but not this year.

I havent seen Brimin Kipruto,this year, Richard Mateelong, Wilson Kiprop...., Longosiwa, Isaiah Kiplangat, Soi, Chepkok have run very sparingly.

Others are Job Kinyor, Leonard Kosencha, Nixxon Chepseba and several gals.

I don't know what has changed.

I actually believe Brimin is onto something and we might see him during the trials.

EPO

The biological passport has the Kenyans running scared. They are not leaving anything up to chance, they have already had enough positive tests for the year.

The Kenyans poor performance is due to running to many races and they seem to have learned from it

Runthemhillsboy wrote:

The Kenyans poor performance is due to running to many races and they seem to have learned from it

Yeah, if they're running to the races it probably would lead to poor performances.

They should be taking motorized transportation to the races so they are rested and ready to go.

You don't know what you are talking about

The Kenyans are coming to this World Championship ready to battle like never before. Kiprop run himself out of the Olympics, the guy raced too many races by the time the Olympics where on he was done. Isaiah Koech, race every major race and he was exhausted before the season came to an end. Edwin Soi has not raced much this year that is why he took down Mo Farah

Of course in Letsrun when there is something different from the past regarding Kenya the reason, for some ignorant idiot, is EPO, doping, biological Passport, etc...

I challenge every stupid people thinking of doping to see how many Kenyans can be DQ because of biological Passport (so you can see the difference between Kenyans /Ethiopians and Russian, Maroccan, Spanish, Portuguese runners and some other European).

Instead thinking something strange, look at the date of Kenyan Trials : 11th of July. And Trials are in altitude.

Probably you don't know that Kenyans don't have any problems in competing at sea level when they move FROM altitude (instead for runners normally living at sea level the best solution, after a period of 3-4 weeks in altitude, is to compete at sea level after 2-3 weeks of re-adaptation) ; but, exactly like every other people, need more long period of adaptation in the conditions of the competition, if they have to run in altitude.

Don't forget what happened with Daniel Komen in 1996 : by far number one in the World, he had some of the best performances all time in Europe remaining at sea level till 9 days before Kenyan Olympic Trials, and when he came back was not able to qualify, having 3 other athletes (very much weaker than him in normal conditions) defeating him.

If the dates of Diamond League are like Lausanne (4th July) and Paris (6th July), and you need to compete in altitude on 11th, and you want to try to qualify for WCh, the only solution is NOT TO RUN (the only Kenyan running was Ezekiel Kemboi, who doesn't run Trials already having the Wild Card as defending Champion).

On the other side, to chose these dates means to know, before the race, that the best Kenyans don't compete.

And this is another reason because the most part of athletes with the chance to run a fast marathon wants to move to the longer event.

At the end, before believing in something written, I suggest to use your brain. For example, today there are articles, in all the newspapers in the worls, about Bolt playing with Manchester United in a friendly match ON 9th AUG.

Everybody knowing the next day there are, in Moscow, heats of 100m, clearly understands this is a great bullshit, only for speaking. And, if somebody doesn't know anything about athletics and its organisation, why do they write some post in very tough way, showing they well know the answers for every situation, when they don't know anything about the real picture ?

Renato

Can you give us any insight into what shape some/any of the Kenyans are in ?

I'm interested especially in 10k as Geoff Mutai wants to run trials

( I'd be interested in what you think a peak Mutai, when he ran 2"04+ in New York couda gone for 10k ( probably not close to that shape anymore ) )

Are Wilson Kiprop or Geoff Kipsang running 10k in trials ?

If so, any idea what shape they're in ( obviously trials at altitude, but you have coached fast guys at sea-level, so something might be gleaned from work-outs )

The Kenyans will have a clean sweep in the 1500m and the steeple!!!

Right on!

Beautiful, just beautiful.

I don't have, at the moment, the full knowledge about the shape of Kenyan runners. I left Kenya on 16th April, and after that period I was in China till 18th June, with problems in communications because of the limited internet access in Changbaishan (I was in the training camp of Marathon runners preparing WCh, after their National Games in Yingzhou).

Also, I'm currently home waiting for a surgery in one ear (I don't hear very well from my left side), so I don't go Kenya for Trials and I don't go Moscow. I go back, hoping in full shape, in September.

Anyway, I'm in touch by phone and, in some case, by email.

About your questions, in my opinion 10000m in 26'30" could not be a performance very difficult, for many athletes who never ran so fast.

When you speak about Sammy Wanjiru, for example, I well remember that in that competition, with the split in 13:10 at 5000m, 3 athletes were together : Kenenisa, Nicholas Kemboi and Sammy. But what people don't know, is the approach of Nicholas to that competition.

He was in training, together with Moses Mosop, for WCh in Helsinki, and always was faster than Moses. In my mind, I had hopes for beating Bekele in Helsinki.

During the race, Nicholas was spiked when they had still 4 laps to go, and finished 9th in 27:17 (while Moses won bronze medal, with the last lap in 53.6, faster than Kenenisa and Sihine, but he was only 5th at the bell, and lost time for overtaking Boniface Kiprop and Zersenay Tadese before attacking Sileshi, arriving only 30cm behind him).

The injury was very bad : Nicholas had 16 stitches, near his Achilles tendon, and had a plaster cast for about 2 weeks, using crutches for walking.

Immediately after Helsinki, we went back to St. Moritz with the group (including Shaheen, Dorcus Inzikuru, and all the other athletes listed for the next meetings).

The 10000m in Helsinki were on 8th Aug. Nicholas could'nt walk till 20th, when the doctor removed his plaster cast.

After this, he walked for 2 days, and jogged 40:00 very easy on 22nd. After jogging, he told me "I want to run in Bruxelles". I answered "In my opinion, you are not able. But I fear for your tendon, not for the performance : if you run bad, nothing happens. In any case, we can decide tomorrow, you need to run some 1000m on track without spikes, so we can see the reaction of your tendon".

Next days (3 days before Bruxelles !), Nicholas started with training shoes in 3:08, and after this continued for 12 times, increasing the speed every time, with the last in 2:42. So, I accepted the idea (he didn't have any problem with Bruxelles, because 2 years before ran 26:30.03 almost beating Haile), but I told him "listen, Kenenisa goes for the WR, nobody follows him, but all the group can go about 13:30 for the first 5 km, so you stay in the group and see how you feel after 7 km".

Nicholas told me "don't worry, I try to be tranquil at the beginning". But, after 5 km, only 3 athletes in 13:10, and Nicholas was there...

He was able to stay with Sammy till 7.4 km, and after started to run pressing his liver. The last km was almost jogging, and the final time was... 26:51 !

The real problem for this event is that, after 2007, practically disappeared from the biggest meetings. The last 10000m of top level was in Hengelo 2005. During the years 2009-2010 there were no competitions, in 2011 Nike decided to put 10000m in Eugene the day before the DL meeting, and immediately the results were globally very good. After looking at those results, Bruxelles again organised a 10000m in the meeting, and again we had very good results (at the end of the season, 16 athletes under 27:00).

The reality is that all the tables for points, and every calculation, is based on statistic results. But the statistic results of 10000m can't be the real picture of the technical value, compared with the PB of an athlete in 5000m, because there are, in the career of top athletes, less opportunities to run 10000m in the best conditions (weather, pace, period), that never we have during the top Championships (Olympic and WCh), when all the athletes look at their position, not at their time.

I already explained that, with a correct training for 10000m, an athlete can run inside 30.0 and 45.0 more than the double of his PB in 5000m (while normally the most part of people think the difference can be 1:00 / 1:10).

For instead, about the athletes I coached, the differences are as follows :

Nicholas Kemboi 13:01 / 26:30 = 28.0

Ahmed Hassan Abdullah 12:56 / 26:38 = 46.0

Imane Merga 12:53 / 26:48 = 62.0

Moses Mosop 12:54 / 26:49 = 61.0

John Korir 13:09 / 26:52 = 34.0

Mark Bett 12:55 / 26:52 = 62.0

(but when he ran his best 10000m could run only 13:08)

Geoffrey Kirui 13:20 / 26:55 = 15.0

(this year he improved in 5000m to 13:16)

The only athletes really specialists of 10000m were Nicholas and John Korir, and Ahmed Hassan (apart Geoffrey Kirui, very young and in current development). Of course, in many cases the athletes could run different times, IF THEY HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO RUN THE SECOND EVENT WHEN IN TOP SHAPE.

My personal evaluations, looking at the best results between 5000 and 10000m of my athletes, if they went to run the other event when they had their best, are :

Nicholas 12:53 (when he ran 26:30) = 44.0

Ahmed Hassan 12:56 / 26:38 (same shape) = 46.0

Moses 12:54 (when he ran 26:49 ran his best in a fast 5000m in 13:07 - so could run 26:32) = 44.0

John Korir (really specialist of 10000m, not very fast, but he could run 13:03 if had the opportunity) = 46.0

Mark Bett (prepared for 5000m in 2001, he ran 27:24 with 12:58 - prepared for 10000m, he ran 26:52 with a value of 13:08) = 36.0

Merga (he ran 12:54 5 days before 26:48) = 60.0

Going back to your question, I think Geoffrey doesn't have the speed for running under 13:00 in 5000m. Howevere, I was in 10k in Boston at the end of May 2011, and Geoffrey won with 27:19 running the second 5k in 13:18 and the last 3k in 7:51, so I can suppose he could run very near 13:03 on track. If we can use the same parameters of Nicholas (+30.0), it's not wrong to suppose he could run about 26:35 in a even and fast competition (same thing for Wilson Kiprop).

Another common mistake is to think that track is faster than road races (of course, well misured). This fact always brings to overrate some athlete (such as Leonard Komon), that can run really faster on moderate hilly courses than on flat courses. If, with a lot of flat official road races, the WR for 15 km is in a race called "Seven Hills", there is not the doubt that some athlete can have advantages in such situation, instead some disadvantage ?

In any case, the current problem of Kenyans for 10000m is that are all athletes for HM and full marathon, without a fast last lap. They don't have any chance to beat Mo Farah or Gebremeskel, probably also Galen Rupp, Kuma and Imane Merga (also if his shape is not like two years ago).

Till when Kenyans don't move to 10000m with proper specific preparation athletes able running 1500m under 3:35.00, they never can have any chance to win gold in this event.

Thanks for your input Renato

Renato

I know you're not a big fan of calculators, but I do think you have severely under-estimated the 5k ability of some of these guys & over-estimated the 5k to 10k differential ( commonly asserted as about 1'00 over double the 5k time ) at 30 - 40s

I have no doubt at all the 26'30/26'35 is probable for some of these guys, but you then can try a calculator to get an idea of their under-distance & the 5k/10k differential

I know you are very knowlegeable about the 400 ability of some of these guys, ranging from 52s to I reckon 57s at absolute slowest

( I don't think you'd claim any of these fast potential 10k guys woud be slower than 57 ? Perhaps not slower than 56 - even the M'ers )

52.0 / 1'49.0 -> 3'32.9 , 7'24.5 , 12'43.9 , 26'30.3

53.0 / 1'50.6 -> 3'35.2 , 7'27.7 , 12'47.3 , 26'32.1

54.0 / 1'52.2 -> 3'37.6 , 7'30.8 , 12'50.7 , 26'33.8

55.0 / 1'53.8 -> 3'39.9 , 7'34.0 , 12'54.1 , 26'35.6

56.0 / 1'55.3 -> 3'41.8 , 7'36.0 , 12'55.2 , 26'31.6

57.0 / 1'56.9 -> 3'44.2 , 7'39.2 , 12'58.6 , 26'33.4

The last line is definitely stretching credibility

( i e it's not really possible for a guy with only 57 speed to run 26'30/26'35 )

& the prior line isn't much better

The set of estimates does indicate that any guy that can run 26'30/26'35 shoud be well below 13'00 even if he's not a speed merchant - they can do it of their incredible endurance

Also that 5k/10k differential shoud be probably no slower than about double + ~ 50s

Renato, I know that you coach some of these athletes, but you need to understand that ventolin has a CALCULATOR. Do you understand? The man has a CALCULATOR and he knows more than you do about the capacity of your athletes. Texas Instruments would be so proud.

Thanks Mr Canova. These are very interesting insights and thanks for responding to questions.

To generalize this, the 10000, like other events, requires specific training to get to a certain level. Some athletes respond better to the training than others. Currently many Kenyans focus on the half marathon or marathon. Some of those who succeed there may respond well to specific 10000 meter training. Example Wanjiru. Others may not - for Example Makau or Lel may not be great 10000 meter runners but are great marathoners . Likewise, there are other strong 10000 meter runners who may or may not succeed at the longer distances. Mosop is successful, Tadesse has not yet been a success at the marathon but excels at the half marathon

Bottom line: it's hard to project times without knowing the specific training or the particular athlete's strengths. Kenya needs more athletes pursuing 10000 meter specific training.

sometimes Ventolin's grinder is useful. If used with caution.

Makes one question why they should hold the Kenyan trials at altitude in Nairobi.

If the trials were held in Mombasa or another place at sea level, there would not be any such problem. Holding the trials at altitude does not just prevent athletes from competing, which limits their earnings (not everyone makes it to the WC team, so some lose out completely) and race sharpness. It also means that athletes get selected under conditions that are very different from what conditions will be like in Moscow, so potentially not selecting the most competitive athletes.

I don't think the Ethiopian selection process (forcing some athletes to run themselves to the ground chasing times) is better, but the Kenyan process could certainly be improved.

You have to be the biggest ignorant person on this forum. Everyone someone is better than you the answer is EPO? c'mon