My primary question for those that do not want to read the full description:
The scenario: A HS boys cross country team averaging 20-25 mpw during the 2012-13 cross country and track seasons (with a few higher weeks in the winter, but nothing above 33 mpw). What can I expect from them if they have made a safe and steady increase to 55-65 mpw?
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Now the details.
I inherited a very mediocre program last fall. No athlete trained during the summer, except a few who ran 2-3 miles a few times per week. So, I spent the cross country season keeping them healthy, slowly introducing them to running daily and they got better, but were not very good (middle of the pack at our district meet).
Track season saw some improvement, but my "varsity" runners were not competitive above the 800m.
I have a successful background with developing athletes, but at a much higher level (NCAA D-I coach for a few years, so my talent was never this low). I have always maintained to my athletes, if they follow the program, they will see improvement.
This has been my first opportunity to train a HS program during the summer. My last few stops did not allow for it.
My HS team wanted to improve--a lot. So I've laid out a very safe mileage bump to potentially 60 mpw (65 for a couple). Six of them have gone all in, and want it badly, which is awesome. I am trying to not get too excited about their progress. They have gone from running at an abysmal 8:30 average pace on runs, to a comfortable 7:30 this summer, with a couple of them getting very comfortable running around or under 7:00.
The following is my mileage progression, followed by a brief bio of all six athletes.
We began summer training the first week of May. They had three weeks off from the end of track.
15 week Mileage Progression:
25
25
30
35
30
35
40
45
40
45
50
55
50
55
60
Long runs are the standard 20%, except the down week--I keep it up from the previous week. Starting with the 5th week, we added one fartlek day and one tempo day. We lift twice a week in the weightroom, and do a body circuit in the middle of the week. Add in drills, abs and stretching, and that's our routine.
The runners (with grade and track PRs)
Runner A: Junior--2:02, 4:50 (also 23.xx, and 53.xx opens)
Runner B: Junior--2:08, 4:57
Runner C: Junior--2:09, 5:06, 11:08
Runner D: Senior--2:07, 4:54, 10:48 (also, 54.xx open)
Runner E: Senior--5:04, 11:03
Runner F: Senior--5:08, 11:02
They have all been doing very well with mileage, so far. They hit 45 last week. No problems yet.
I am certain they will improve, but how much improvement? Increased mileage, better pace on runs, more active in the weightroom.