A Hypothetical: What IF Lagat Is 27 And Galen Is 38?

You do love to re iterate to everyone that while Rupp is good, Lagat is a legend.

Which is fairly true. Lagat was one of the best 1500m guys in the best era of 1500m running. Rupp is certainly not an international legend, but his Silver and AR in 10000 already give him near American legend status, even I'f he quit running tomorrow.

As far as Lagat/Rupp race...I certainly think Lagat would win such a race as he is an all time great. Not so sure about the margin though, as we still have another 3-5 yrs of top level Rupp running...and no way of knowing how fast he will "decay".

Still dont understand why you point out regularly that Lagat is a more accomplished runner than Rupp. Its not exactly a difficult thing to ascertain.

I am going to hand it to you, LM, that you are one of the few posters here who recognizes that I am not "a troll," as opposed to the unwashed masses who unthinkingly label those they disagree with as being.

Yes, of course I am pointing out the obvious, but it is stunning to think that as good as Galen is, he is being mastered (not sure if pun is intended) by one who is NEVER going to break 13 minutes again for 5000m. This is noteworthy considering I have heard incessant claims of Galen being able to run 12:45 or so, when the truth is that Galen remains the 6th fastest 5000m man in U.S. history, and some on here appear to salivate regarding unrealistic prospects they concoct regarding Galen's 5000m potential, but the fact remains that Galen is a very good 10,000m runner who is in over his head against the world's best at 5000m.

Switch up the ages and Lagat would be running near-WR times and Galen Rupp would have retired about 2 years earlier.

Lagat will run a lot under 13 minutes in Monaco in some weeks

Bernie will break his AR in Monaco.

FrankenCain was spot on lol

Actually, the real answer is that Rupp wins the race by a landslide because Lagat is still 3-4 years away from becoming a US citizen at that age.

What does being a US citizen has to do with the performance and PRs, this guy ran 3:26 while a Kenyan and his 5,000m PR while a US citizen, so leave the citizenship aside and congratulate these two great runners. Their PRs in the events they compete in are amazing

So?

Pretty sure being a US citizen has a lot to do with competing in the USATF National Championships.

average guy wrote:

What does being a US citizen has to do with the performance and PRs, this guy ran 3:26 while a Kenyan and his 5,000m PR while a US citizen, so leave the citizenship aside and congratulate these two great runners. Their PRs in the events they compete in are amazing

lagat fan and a believer.... wrote:

Lagat will run a lot under 13 minutes in Monaco in some weeks

Two years ago Bernard Lagat set the U.S. record and his lifetime personal best of 12:53.6, at age 36. I am not sure if you consider this to be "a lot under 13 minutes," but it was the fastest 5000m time he will ever record. Of course he could have run 12:45 or so in his prime, of that there is little doubt. But now we fast forward 2 years, and Bernard is 38 years old, and sure, he can school Galen in a 5000m when Galen is not completely fresh, and remember, Galen has peaked in the sense that he will not be making any improvements now, at least none that really mean anything in the scheme of things, by which I mean he could run 12:55 or so, but that is his lifetime ceiling. Consequently, Bernard Lagat, currently at best a 13:00 runner, was able to outkick Galen in a 14:54 race, but it was not very impressive for either of them, in the sense that Bernard Lagat of 2006 vintage would have run that last lap yesterday in 50xx seconds if he'd wanted to, of that there is no doubt, and Galen would have trailed badly. Let's get real folks, yesterday was not a good sign for Galen, because he was dusted by a 3:34, 13:00 runner on the last lap. The 10,000m will have to be weak beyond belief for Galen to medal again.

Jarvis Jenkins wrote:

Bernie will break his AR in Monaco.

Again, there is NO CHANCE of that happening. Yenew Alamirew ran a FASTER last lap in a 12:54 race in Rome than Bernard and Galen managed in a 14:54 race yesterday. Yenew Alamirew would have destroyed Galen and Lagat yesterday, and it wouldn't even have been close.

lsafkjfalj;faljfjsljfsjsljf wrote:

FrankenCain was spot on lol

Ya, that was pretty damn funny, in a good way. To be 17 and doing that is freakish.

As far as Rupp goes, in over his head is something of an overstatement. He has closed a 13:30 race in 52 mid. That IS potentially fast enough to medal, especially depending on how well/if some of the other guys get their peaks right.

Last years 5000 in London was 13:40, and had Rupp ran a 52.5 like he did vs Lagat at US he would have gotten a medal. Fact remains he did not, giving a much weaker performance than at the trials, however or he has demonstrated the capabilities to medal in a least a certain kind of race.

Of course, many other race possibilites remain. A fast race (don't think Galen gas ever had a super fast, or even mid 50s close off a quick pace), a race with surges, a race with a big midway attack, etc. All are certainly a possibility at any championship race and we don't know how Galen will fare in such a race. He may very well struggle with it, especially if he hasnt preparined for it...and an in form Gebrhiwet or Gebremeskel could well just drop him regardless.

My question with Rupp now is his ability to close in medal fashion off of these slow, essentially 1500m, 5000s. The Olympics was that way, as was this Trials...and in both cases Rupp managed something in the 55-56+ range. Good, but not championship winning good.

this. thanks for the analysis.

this thread is dead, but why let a zombie rest in peace...

Apples and oranges.

O.P. tries to manufacture a zero-sum game out of two fantastic performers who are not natural rivals, in age or in talent bias. They are both great. Lagat is a class act and his career will indeed be legendary, based in large part on its longevity, assuming it ends without mishap. Legends are rare, but Rupp is already an unprecedented historical figure in running and has already outperformed Lagat (at any age) in anything over 5K. Explicit references to one of them being a groin-level servant to the other is indeed the essence of Trolling.

Lagat focused on the 5K and won. Rupp focused on the 10K and won. It's a win-win for U.S.

Galen at 38? WTF. Almost no one at 38 has ever done what Lagat does. Lagat's ability to maintain his high-end gear into his late 30s is preternatural. Jealous trolls speculate on Rupp's natural vs enhanced "Franken" abilities, while never questioning a much more remarkable ability to hold and even elevate such performance without serious setback through a second decade. The ageless Pettite, Clemens, Bonds, Armstrong, Jeannie Longo, MDSlaney, ringing bells anyone? To be clear, there is ZERO evidence either Kip or Galen has abused their gifts, but Galen's achievements are not the most astounding. If Lagat is already judged a legend and Rupp never is, fine. But if being "A Legend" is a Requirement to avoid carrying another's nether garments, i'm sure we all know what SPMB's occupation is ITRW.

Rupp's Never been great at 1500/mile so the premise that he'd not hold a candle at 38 is trivial. Lagat at 38 focused all effort on one event, a 5K Champs neg splitter exacerbated by heat that became a jog followed by a 3:40 time trial for Lagat's (and not Rupp's) specialty. Lagat ran smart, he ran strong, he showed class, and he'll need much more in Moscow for any momentos. Rupp ran for placement and he ran smart in taking over at 400 and kicking from 300. I'm sure he wanted to win, but it was never likely in the cards given the heat, the 10K double, and pre-peaking form, so when he came off the corner with Lagat pulling around him, he was only concerned with holding his qualification, not straining himself to retake Lagat like he did last time - watch his head flicks.

The OPs hypothetical left out the other part of the equivalence. Rupp at 10K. Lagat has NEVER demonstrated worldclass talent above 5K. Although his 5K PB is 5 sec ahead of Rupp, his 1/2M is 2 min behind (and Rupp fell mid-run). If Lagat had accepted the increased base volume needed for strength at 10K, would he have remained injury-free and effective to 38? Did he have the talent to have ever successfully qualified at 5K+10K, against current U.S. competition level? Double US champ? Rupp could never do what Lagat does, and Lagat can't now and probably never could do what Rupp does. But i can't see how there's a negative in there. It's two positives.

Picture SPMBLNPF at home at his computer.

Now picture Aaron Hernadez being pissed off at SPMBLNPF and beating him up.

Hats off to SPMBLNPF. I respect him. But its interesting thinking about Hernadez beating the crap out of him.