put it on paper wrote:
Okay smart guy. Tell us all your positions right now.
Long US Dollar Index since November 2011
Short Gold since February (when Soros and other started getting out of longs. I don't know if they are actually short but I am).
I was essentially "long everything" for quite a while, but have been pulling out since February. I have a few stocks and my safe money is in the Pimco Total Return Fund as it has been for a very long time.
I expect that we are at the start of setting up another long term top in the very long term trading range ~1600 SP500 that goes all the way back to 1997, similar to the tops in 2000 and 2007-2008. I expect to be going short NEXT year (it takes about a year for a large degree top to develop). If I'm wrong and this is just s 5-10% correction that resolves to the upside and we convincingly take out the prior high, I will go with it.
Note that a significant breakout upside implies an end to the trading range we've been in and a return to buy-and-hold. This would be a major change in investment policy for many and a major change in expected returns (up).