USA Men's 1500m heat sheets are out - who you got???

Heat 1 looks STACKED. Better hope that one goes out fast or some big names are screwed.

Predictions for top 3 (not in order):

Heat 1 Prelims

9 Lopez Lomong Nike

15 William Leer Nike

16 Leonel Manzano Unattached

Good guys who aren't in top 3 in this heat:

3 David Torrence Nike

1 Jordan McNamara Nike / Oregon TC

2 Miles Batty Asics

Weakest heat, no big names - could be a big opportunity for Mac Fleet.

Heat 2 Prelims

6 Garrett Heath Saucony

10 Mac Fleet Oregon

15 Jeff See Saucony

These guys should have an easier time getting through...

Heat 3 Prelims

2 Russell Brown Unattached

13 Andrew Wheating Nike / Oregon TC

15 Matthew Centrowitz Nike

Alan We.. Oh.

Man, that first heat is tough.

Only 3 get in with Q's.

Manzano 2012 US champ

Lomong 2009 and 2010 US champ

Leer 2013 indoor champ

Torrence has run 3:34 and places high at USATF often

Miles Batty NCAA mile record holder

Andrew Bayer former NCAA champ

No one very accomplished is in the second heat. Mac Fleet I guess.

Centro, Wheating and Brown in the third heat

I certainly think a big name won't make the final.

Is someone going to take that first heat out and make it fast to get 4-6 in form that heat? Maybe Lomong?

Crazy that the Silver medalist (first medal in 44 years) goes in unattached.

So Russell Brown is still alive. He's been keeping a low profile. #darkhorse

Russell Brown hasn't made a final in years. He's really injury prone and hasn't race since mid May so he's probably still injured.

I think Andy Bayer and Ryan Hill will make the final. Ryan Hill was a little banged up earlier in the season but he's probably gained fitness since USA's. Bayer was 4th last year.

Heat 1:

Leer

Lomong

Manzano

Heat 2:

Heath

Fleet

Ryan Hill

Heat 3:

Centro

Wheating

Brown (if healthy)

Three on time;

Torrence

Bayer

Masters

Serious question. How do they spread out the names for heats like this? Do they take the best times this season of all 47 and arrange them in order and divide them up 1 to Heat 1, 2 to Heat 2, 3 to Heat 3, 4 to Heat 1, 5 to Heat 2, etc? Or their best times ever?

serious question on this wrote:

Serious question. How do they spread out the names for heats like this? Do they take the best times this season of all 47 and arrange them in order and divide them up 1 to Heat 1, 2 to Heat 2, 3 to Heat 3, 4 to Heat 1, 5 to Heat 2, etc? Or their best times ever?

Basically, except it would be more like "1, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, etc..." in order from fastest to slowest. Problem is most runners only run to qualify, so the big names don't have the biggest times. So it's essentially random.

The part that makes it crazy is that the stacked heat is first, so they don't know how fast they need to run. If they run "only" 3:40 the weaker heats could steal their spots.

On seeding, they sort by qualifying time. Then they assign the heats as:

3 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 1 3 ...

My prediction is:

Heat 1: goes out at a walking pace. 10 people furiously kick over the last 300 meters.

Heat 2: same

Heat 3: despite knowing that an honest pace will likely get all 3 time qualifiers, they will still go out at a walking pace and furiously kick over the last 300 meters.

Looks like they seed based on times from the qualifying window which started Jun 21, 2012.

So someone like Torrence who has a 3:34 PR and ran 3:35 low in May of last year, only has a 3:38 entry time from this year.

Lomong and Wheating have slow qualifying times.

Looks like Lomong is entered with his 3:51 indoor mile making him the 37 seed, when he should be top 3 if you convert it to 3:34.

Jack Bolas is the 3rd overall seed at 3:36.35 with Garrett Heath at 3:36.65.

So technically, the third heat which we see as slow has the 2 of the top 4 seeds.

Here's the entry list:

http://www.usatf.org/Events---Calendar/2013/USATFCS/Events/USA-Outdoor-Track---Field-Championships/Status-of-Entries.aspx

Heat 1 is definitely the toughest. But what is the deal with Lomong? Is he doing both the 1500 and 5k?

Its about time Torrence made his breakthrough. Potential future olympic/world champ medalist, but not in the 1500 - 5k is for him.

There's a nice article on Russell Brown in today's Eugene paper:

http://www.registerguard.com/rg/sports/30036134-81/brown-track-field-1500-elite.html.csp

It sounds like he's feeling good.

Jeeeeeeeezus! That first heat is nasty.

You know damn well all the big guns are looking at that heat and thinking "we better go hard" so they get 3Q and 3q.

Who will be the pace setter though?

Would like to see Mudd get into the final, but he has to beat some big names to get there.

Race will probably be Tactically....so I say he has pretty good chance!

elmore345 wrote:

Its about time Torrence made his breakthrough. Potential future olympic/world champ medalist, but not in the 1500 - 5k is for him.

Looks like he petitioned for the 5000 but wasn't accepted. It might be his best event but he doesn't really have the experience yet to make the US team there I wouldn't think. He has also expressed lots of interest in running the steeple but haven't heard anything about that either.

I'd say look for a fall or two.

RuKiddingMe!! wrote:

Would like to see Mudd get into the final, but he has to beat some big names to get there.

Race will probably be Tactically....so I say he has pretty good chance!

I would think he has an outside chance for making the top 3. Whether they go faster than the other two heats will determine if 4 or 5 or even 6 get in also.

Also, there are five Wisconsin guys here: three from this year -- Hatz, Finnerty, Bolas, Miller, and Mudd; and two older alums -- Miller and Bolas.

In that first heat, there is also last year's fourth place finisher Bayer. He will have had more time to build up from earlier problems.