No, there is no reason to think Saarel will break 13. Of course it is possible, but it would have been just as likely that Verzbicas or Fernandez would have, and they aren't likely to do that. It is simply too early to know.
Who?
At the present moment, Saarel can run, say, 1800-1900 meters at 12:59 pace. He is, indeed, a special talent, and he has picked a program that fits him to a "T", but talent doesn't always equal success, so we'll have to see.
rojo wrote:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2013/05/mark-wetmore-is-going-to-be-a-very-happy-man-ben-saarel-is-a-special-talent/
He won like one major race and suddenly he could be the next big star of the US? Are you also planning on giving an 8th grade basketball player a college scholarship?
No chance.
True, Derrick, Bumbalough, Jager, Centrowitz etc will do it before.
I'm not that impressed that a 4:02 miler is going to Colorado. Who cares.
Despite what I wrote above, I wouldn't say no chance. Think of what he has going for him: modesty; intelligence; hard worker; wants to be great but realizes he isn't; can close fast; currently, in the right race, he can run sub-1:50; sees himself as a 5 and 10 guy.
Adfladlsjdks wrote:
No chance.
True, Derrick, Bumbalough, Jager, Centrowitz etc will do it before.
I'm not that impressed that a 4:02 miler is going to Colorado. Who cares.
rojo wrote:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2013/05/mark-wetmore-is-going-to-be-a-very-happy-man-ben-saarel-is-a-special-talent/
I would say that some of the guys we have right now are much more likely to break 13 before Saarel...
Especially since a lot of them are within 12-15 seconds of doing it as it is.
he just destroyed that field at the end. he does look like he has a very bright future and should go well under 4 next year. with that speed and strength and continued altitude training at Colorado, he should be special. The pacemaker wasn't to blame as the field didn't go with him at all and left quite a gap. The pacemaker was tiring toward 800m, but really guys should have been drafting off him from the beginning and then they slowed quite a bit from 800-1200m.
DKCCC wrote:
He won like one major race and suddenly he could be the next big star of the US? Are you also planning on giving an 8th grade basketball player a college scholarship?
I hate the recruitment of 8th graders. He's won 3 major races. Aracadia. Mt Sac and Dream Mile.
Adfladlsjdks wrote:
No chance.
True, Derrick, Bumbalough, Jager, Centrowitz etc will do it before.
I'm not that impressed that a 4:02 miler is going to Colorado. Who cares.
I don't think he'll be the next sub-13. I just think he might be able to do that. I just started this thread as my misreading of the True one is what made me write my column.
Saarel is not just a 4:02 miler and that's my point. He's a 4:02 long distance guy who closes in 55.
It would be interesting to start a thread where everyone ranks your five guys in terms of likeliness to go sub-13. That would be very hard to do. I might put Centro at #1 which is crazy to make waves. I'd have to think about it. The only thing I'm certain of is I'd rank Bumbalough as the least likely.
But when they do it isn't really important to me.
Maybe later this week I'll start a thread entitled: "Rank True, Derrick, Bumbalough, Jager, Centrowitz in terms of ultimate lifetime 5000 PRs and give your reasoning."
I'm really surprised you would be this irrational rojo, way to lay the pressure on the kid sheesh, classic overreaction and set up for failure
Adfladlsjdks wrote:
No chance.
True, Derrick, Bumbalough, Jager, Centrowitz etc will do it before.
True - will go 13:0x in his career but will never go under 13
Derrick - shows potential and may do it within the next few years
Bumbalough - yeah right... next
Jager - too busy running steeple but would never go sub 13 anyways
Centrowitz - unknown at the moment
What makes anybody think Centro has a shot?? I love the kid, but he hasn't show any type of endurance near that level
skeptic scot wrote:
What makes anybody think Centro has a shot?? I love the kid, but he hasn't show any type of endurance near that level
1) He was the nation's best 2 miler as a prep. He ran 8:41.55 for the full 2 miles - six seconds better than Jager in that race.
2) His father was the former American record holder in the event after first being known as a 1500 guy. His dad broke Pre's Oreogn 1,500 school record by running 3:36 and made US olympic teams at 1500 in 1976 and 1980 but set the 5000 record in 1982 at 13:12.91.
Not sure I agree that he's a 5k/10k guy, yet. I don't trust what runners say about themselves, you have to really look at the performances. His two big races have shown about 3:58 and 8:30 form in his two big races, by my estimates, which is equal or better for the mile. He could go sub-14 in the 5k surely but It will take some time to get good at the 10k.
Agreed. Centro wasn't too remarkable in ncaa XC... But, I wouldn't be surprised if AlSal turns a 3:31 1500 runner into a sub 13 guyin 4+ years.
RuppNation wrote:
Adfladlsjdks wrote:No chance.
True, Derrick, Bumbalough, Jager, Centrowitz etc will do it before.
True - will go 13:0x in his career but will never go under 13
Derrick - shows potential and may do it within the next few years
Bumbalough - yeah right... next
Jager - too busy running steeple but would never go sub 13 anyways
Centrowitz - unknown at the moment
This ^ is right on.
Derrick is a 50-50 bet. I doubt any of the others will ever go sub-13.
It's hard to predict, because I never would have thought that Chris Solinsky would run as fast as he did at his size until one day I checked the University of Wisconsin website out of pure curiosity to see how another runner did and saw he broke the 10k record and soon ran 5ks in 12:55.
But if you had asked me whether a guy built like Solinsky could sustain the pace that long 4 years before that, I would have been skeptical. So predictions can blow up in your face. Likewise who would think Allen Webb was going to struggle so much?
You just don't know because there are too many variables, some of which the people control, others which they don't. But it's certainly a good bet to make, he's as good a bet to make as anyone.
He's a great talent and, possibly even more important, a very good racer. He has shown great progression year-to-year, and I think he is going to be perfectly suited for the 5k.
But the NEXT Sub-13? I'm going to guess no, because there is a lot of other talents older and closer than him (among them Lomong, Derrick, Fernandez, Hill, etc.). But I don't deny the possibility he could go sub-13 one day.
rojo wrote:
1) He was the nation's best 2 miler as a prep. He ran 8:41.55 for the full 2 miles - six seconds better than Jager in that race.
2) His father was the former American record holder in the event after first being known as a 1500 guy. His dad broke Pre's Oreogn 1,500 school record by running 3:36 and made US olympic teams at 1500 in 1976 and 1980 but set the 5000 record in 1982 at 13:12.91.
good points, although I don't think we'll see Centro in a fast 5k anytime soon. Salazar might throw him in some for strength work tho. As for Saarel, what a beast--if he can get in some Euro races as a senior... possible.
I know it's crazy, but I think Eric Jenkins is going to get sub-13 next. And I think he's just beginning to understand how fast he can be...