Only 5 high schoolers have done it so far, which shows how rare it is. I believe that American distance running is taking a turn for the better, and it's very possible that 3 or more boys can break 4 on saturday. If the number of HS sub 4s increases from 5 to 8 in just one race, I believe that it will be the beginning of the end for the "mystique" of the HS sub 4 mile
Something something...mary cain...
Good when you think about it we should have our "milers" run better than merely a 3:42 mid equivalent. The new goal should be 3:55
In the US, the sub 4 mile still has mystique for college / open runners. Why would it end for HSers just because 8 people have done it over the last 50+ years?
mile lover wrote:
If the number of HS sub 4s increases from 5 to 8 in just one race, I believe that it will be the beginning of the end for the "mystique" of the HS sub 4 mile
That seems extremely doubtful. I could see where you are coming from if you were born in ... say, ... 2006.
I personally guarantee that NO ONE will break 4 on Saturday. You young punks don't realize how hard it is to break. Every single year there are 1-4 guys who come close and get hyped up like they are going to do it, yet 99.9% of the time, they fall short. Since Danielson did it only 2 guys have done it- Webb (no introduction needed) and that kid 2 years ago (whatever happened to him?).
Don't kid yourself- it's not going down.
Old Cheatin Cohen wrote:
In the US, the sub 4 mile still has mystique for college / open runners. Why would it end for HSers just because 8 people have done it over the last 50+ years?
There can't be that much mystique when a sub-4 may not even qualify you for NCAAs. And it's not because there are 8 total sub 4s, it's because the number of HS sub 4s increases by 60% or more in just one race
Haha, YO (super cereal) wrote:
I personally guarantee that NO ONE will break 4 on Saturday. You young punks don't realize how hard it is to break. Every single year there are 1-4 guys who come close and get hyped up like they are going to do it, yet 99.9% of the time, they fall short. Since Danielson did it only 2 guys have done it- Webb (no introduction needed) and that kid 2 years ago (whatever happened to him?).
Don't kid yourself- it's not going down.
I wouldn't go so far as to guarantee that no one will do it, but you are right in that people shouldn't be assuming it will happen. There's a reason only a few HS guys have broken 4. With the great field they have assembled maybe one or two will sneak under. It should at least be an awesome race to watch.
A likely scenario may be that 3 guys break 4 this weekend, and then no others will break it for 10+ years afterwards. It would most likely lose some prestige in your eyes at first, but it wouldn't take long for people to look at it as the greatest HS race of any distance, ever run.
mile lover wrote:
Old Cheatin Cohen wrote:In the US, the sub 4 mile still has mystique for college / open runners. Why would it end for HSers just because 8 people have done it over the last 50+ years?
There can't be that much mystique when a sub-4 may not even qualify you for NCAAs. And it's not because there are 8 total sub 4s, it's because the number of HS sub 4s increases by 60% or more in just one race
If you want to be so cool and cynical about high school sub 4's, don't muddle up your cynicism with NCAA comparisons and don't think of a Dream Mile sub 4 this weekend as any type of significant accomplishment. Move on.
I was kinda thinking about this today. But more along the lines of, at what frequency would high school sub 4s become less intriguing? If a sub 4 came around every year would that do it? One every other year?
Prediction for this weekend:
They will go out in 57-58, then the pace will lag. The leader will hit the 1200 in 3:02 or thereabouts, start a kick, fade on the backstretch, and the pack will catch him. Winner will run 4:01-4:02.
I saw in one thread that the rabbit was going to go out in 1:57, does any else think that's a bit fast? Unless these guys are planning on 3:55, wouldn't that mean they're guarenteed to be running a slow third lap to gear up for a blazing finish or the pack will fade into the finish.
ladies represent wrote:
I was kinda thinking about this today. But more along the lines of, at what frequency would high school sub 4s become less intriguing? If a sub 4 came around every year would that do it? One every other year?
If your mother did it.
That puts the top 4 guys around 1:58. Not bad. They probably slow down for 600m putting them through 1200 in 3:00 and 1400 in 3:30. Then it's go time.
You're thinking Lucas Zerzbikas from two years ago who broke it. He is a triathlete now who was severely injured in a bicycle accident. He is already back and he was in bad shape. Go to flotrack and they are tracking his progress.
mile lover wrote:
Only 5 high schoolers have done it so far, which shows how rare it is. I believe that American distance running is taking a turn for the better, and it's very possible that 3 or more boys can break 4 on saturday. If the number of HS sub 4s increases from 5 to 8 in just one race, I believe that it will be the beginning of the end for the "mystique" of the HS sub 4 mile
this reminds me of the "idiotic puffing of mass media buffoons"
Yeah, it's a bad DyeStat thread. If Ritz, Pre, Rupp, Virgin, and Lindgren never broke 4 in high school, then you know it's never going to be an insignificant accomplishment. Ritz, Virgin, and Lindgren never did it in their entire lives.
How exactly to you back up your personal guarantee?