Dow continues to climb; housing recovery is real

just another bubble being inflated. When this one bursts in a couple years, it's gonna be ugly..

Can't have a bonafide 'housing recovery' with real incomes declining..

Demand isn't really up. it's just that low inventory makes it look that way. Artificially low interest rates can't stay artificially low forever. When a market correction is allowed one day, interest rates will jump & the bubble will burst..

Great time to re-fi. If you can't because of insufficient equity, try again in 6 months.

Interesting eight-minute clip from Bill Gross that speaks to all of this, rates, the carry trade, housing, how the Fed has not only lost control of the real economy but never had it to begin with, and the distortion of business models. Of course, I pretty much agree.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000171978

Sagarin wrote:

Interesting eight-minute clip from Bill Gross that speaks to all of this, rates, the carry trade, housing, how the Fed has not only lost control of the real economy but never had it to begin with, and the distortion of business models. Of course, I pretty much agree.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000171978

So I would assume you are out or largely out of the equity market and would advise anyone else to do the same?

Flagpole wrote:

for me... wrote:

Some of us are still waiting for the "BIG" drop Flagpole predicted about a year ago... when he said the market was overvalued or something to that effect.

There WILL be a big pull back, but you should not wait for it. I never advise that you wait for a pullback. Corrections are inevitable, and there are too many reasons out there right now to cause a decent pullback within the next year or so. As I've said many times, 73% of years are UP years, so it behooves you to be in the market pretty much all the time, especially since NO ONE can accurately time it.

You completely misunderstood my point. Obviously the sarcasm was lost on you.

I'm waiting for your prediction to finally pan out. Not waiting to invest.

I was merely pointing out that your last prediction of a "BIG fall coming soon, since the market was overvalued" was absolutely, completely wrong. I seem to remember most of your other predictions being wrong as well. It's good to remind of your past, whenever you throw out a new prediction.

But don't worry, in no way do your predictions, opinions or advice affect my investing. If anything, I use you as one of my many data points for contrarian purposes.

for me... wrote:

I was merely pointing out that your last prediction of a "BIG fall coming soon, since the market was overvalued" was absolutely, completely wrong. I seem to remember most of your other predictions being wrong as well. It's good to remind of your past, whenever you throw out a new prediction.

Could you link us to some of these failed predictions? Thanks!

for me... wrote:

...in no way do your predictions, opinions or advice affect my investing. If anything, I use you as one of my many data points for contrarian purposes.

Good luck with that.

Market Analyst wrote:

Sagarin wrote:

Interesting eight-minute clip from Bill Gross that speaks to all of this, rates, the carry trade, housing, how the Fed has not only lost control of the real economy but never had it to begin with, and the distortion of business models. Of course, I pretty much agree.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000171978

So I would assume you are out or largely out of the equity market and would advise anyone else to do the same?

I'm not a CFP and wouldn't advise anyone of anything. Suffice it to say that I'm not as bullish the US as I was earlier in the year, but I'm a tactical trader. I was short the US market a few days ago for a brief period. I was short the metals, and while I think they have further to go on the downside, I'm not as adamant about that trade. I like Vietnam, South Korea, some of the South American countries, various currency plays, etc. I am currently short the US, but that could change in five minutes or a couple months. I do believe the market has gotten frothy for my tastes and needs a correction. But that is merely my opinion.

... in my trading accounts. I do think the Fed is creating malinvestment that will haunt us at some point. Remember, austerity is the end result, not the cause of anything. It is merely a symptom.

It is dangerous fighting central bank profligacy however. It's amazing that, minus the Fed's open market operations on Tuesdays, where we've had something like 20 straight positive closes, the S&P 500 is only up like 0.2% since late January. Those figures could be slightly off, but you get the idea. Curious.

This stock market roar is killing me as I'm closing on a house in middle of July and the rates keep going up. I hope there's a correction very very soon, but I doubt it and my rates will be above 4%.

Sagarin wrote:

I'm not a CFP and wouldn't advise anyone of anything. Suffice it to say that I'm not as bullish the US as I was earlier in the year, but I'm a tactical trader. I was short the US market a few days ago for a brief period. I was short the metals, and while I think they have further to go on the downside, I'm not as adamant about that trade. I like Vietnam, South Korea, some of the South American countries, various currency plays, etc. I am currently short the US, but that could change in five minutes or a couple months. I do believe the market has gotten frothy for my tastes and needs a correction. But that is merely my opinion.

Major Key Reversal in the stock markets on 5/22, and the thing that really makes me nervous is the lack of response to the signal: Hardly any bears pointing it out, and that makes me wonder if there's anyone left to buy. Make no mistake, this is a major signal that stands out on intermediate/longer term charts and it is VERY negative.

Not sure if this is a longer term signal (SP goes to 800 again) or merely a correction of the 5-10% variety, but this follows a top and smart money pulling out of gold in February. I'm short gold since February and now out of S&P (stop just under recent reaction low got hit). I'm not short the stock market and probably won't be until next year even if this is a major top (don't know, but playing the percentages now). Only long the US Dollar now.

I think a lot of talk about the economy doing better (so far) ignores the fact of the sequester in place, and the CBO projections of tax hikes and budget cuts from last year had the economy close to or in recession as a response to the "fiscal cliff." There are significant lag effects, but the market looks ahead.

D-E-F-L-A-T-I-O-N

It's amazing that,minus the Fed's open market operations on Fridays,the S&P 500 is only up 5.35% for the year.(11.5% as of today). It's amazing that,minus the Fed's open market operations on Mondays,the S&P 500 would be up 16.3% for the year.(+ 4.8% as of today),but you get the idea.Tuesday,April 16 the S&P 500 had it's largest point gain of the year.Curious,go to the New York Fed and see how many treasury securities they bought that day.

coach d wrote:

Major Key Reversal in the stock markets on 5/22, and the thing that really makes me nervous is the lack of response to the signal: Hardly any bears pointing it out, and that makes me wonder if there's anyone left to buy. Make no mistake, this is a major signal that stands out on intermediate/longer term charts and it is VERY negative.

A one day reversal is NOT a signal. In fact, it is a perfect example of NOISE. Sheesh.

Oh boy, coach d you're something else.