What would you expect a 9:00 3200 runner to run Freshmen year of college?

this is absolutely ridiculous. It depends on a million different factors. Is that 9:00 kid running 50 miles a week or 80? When he gets to school how much does his mileage increase? What is the new program like? Does he adjust well or get hurt? The kid could run anywhere from 13:50s to 15:30s

qefbwebf wrote:

this is absolutely ridiculous. It depends on a million different factors. Is that 9:00 kid running 50 miles a week or 80? When he gets to school how much does his mileage increase? What is the new program like? Does he adjust well or get hurt? The kid could run anywhere from 13:50s to 15:30s

thanks captain obvious, of course it depends on the person. but i think he was asking what you would expect from an average 9:00 3200 guy. Typical milage for those guys is around 70 mpw and they usually don't go to joke programs.

14:00 to 14:20 for 5000 is the answer. 29:20-29:50 for 10,000. This is for the average high schooler training at least a year at 55-65 miles a week before college.

14:20 and 30:00 on the track.

9:00 for 3200 is roughly equivalent to 14:30 and 30:00, but this assumes you're putting in the miles usually (there are always outliers). Assuming you make a smooth, gradual transition to college, 14:10-14:15 and 29:20-29:30 are good goals. You may run faster or slower depending on how hard you are training and how you handle it.

14:20/ 30:15

My son ran 4:15 and 9:17 in HS on about 60 to 65 a week average his senior year. His freshman year he ran 14:36 and 30:25. The 30:25 was at Mt Sac. the 14:36 was at the end of the conference meet after he had already ran in the 10K. His senior year he went 14:22 and 30:18, at Penn and Mt Sac. So he did not improve a lot after that jump from HS to college. He ran at a decent, but not great SEC program.

Hey Now! wrote:

My son ran 4:15 and 9:17 in HS on about 60 to 65 a week average his senior year. His freshman year he ran 14:36 and 30:25. The 30:25 was at Mt Sac. the 14:36 was at the end of the conference meet after he had already ran in the 10K. His senior year he went 14:22 and 30:18, at Penn and Mt Sac. So he did not improve a lot after that jump from HS to college. He ran at a decent, but not great SEC program.

Shame on that coach! Or your son stopped trying!

I would expect a 9:00 H.S.er to get down to 13:45 and 28:45 by their senior year if they work really hard in college

7:10/100km

iwouldexpectbetter wrote:

Hey Now! wrote:

My son ran 4:15 and 9:17 in HS on about 60 to 65 a week average his senior year. His freshman year he ran 14:36 and 30:25. The 30:25 was at Mt Sac. the 14:36 was at the end of the conference meet after he had already ran in the 10K. His senior year he went 14:22 and 30:18, at Penn and Mt Sac. So he did not improve a lot after that jump from HS to college. He ran at a decent, but not great SEC program.

Shame on that coach! Or your son stopped trying!

I would expect a 9:00 H.S.er to get down to 13:45 and 28:45 by their senior year if they work really hard in college

Moron.

How many college kids run 13:45 a year?

Why I'm I a moron? You don't know what your talking about loser!

If you run 9:00 in H.S. you should run no slower than 13:55 in college. MORON!

About 25-30 counting indoors and out.

I would guess that number will go up in four year to about 40-50/year.

I think sub-14 should be expected by a sub-9 highschooler.

break it up wrote:

14:00 to 14:20 for 5000 is the answer. 29:20-29:50 for 10,000. This is for the average high schooler training at least a year at 55-65 miles a week before college.

That is way too ambitous.

Averaging your two 5k times and you get 14:10. A 14:10 is roughly the same as 29:40 and a ffreshman is likely to be worse at 10k than 5k so your 5k/10k equivalnets are off.

But let's just say you are saying on average 1410/2940.. What is that equivalent to for 3200? 8:46 according to JK's chart -

. YOu can't expect anything close to 7 seconds per mile (14 seconds per 3200 every year) when they are already that good.

By your logic they'd be running close to 8:00 when they graduate?? Even if they slowed down in their improvement to say 5 seconds per mile per year, you'd have them running 8:20 for 3200 when they graduate??? So you expect every 9:00 guy to run 13:26/28:05. Give me a break.

Here's another way to think of it.

If I've done the math right, a 9:00 3200 (not 2 mile, I added 3.2 seconds to make it a 2 mile) is equivalent to about 14:33/30:30 according to John Kellogg's chart

So what do you think decent improvement is? It's hard to improve a lot. As explained above, 10 seconds per year in the 3200 is too much to expect.

Well according to JK's chart, an 8:51.7 (8:54.9 2 mile) is equivalent to about 1419/30:00.

Freshman year? I'd say like 14:45 at the slowest. By the end of college, I'd expect them to dip under 14:00.

It depends on how many miles he is doing in high school. Did he run that 9:00 off of 50-60 mpw or 80-90? My 10,000 conversion was a bit aggressive; 30:20 seems closest according to these tables, but the 5,000 conversion was spot on.

http://run-down.com/statistics/calc.php

So, I don't think going from 14:30 to 14:10-15 in college is a stretch by any means, which would put him at 29:30-29:40, IF he makes a smooth transition with improvement. Heck, I've known 9:35 kids (altitude adjusted equivalent to 9:20) who ran in the 14:20s as freshman. The former CO state record holder who ONLY ran 9:31 and change at STATE in the early to mid 80s broke 30:00 in college as a freshman. He ran close to 29:00 as a sophomore. So many intangibles in play.

He ran 9:17 in HS not sub 9. And yes, the program and the coaches were ok, not great. Did he stop trying, no. Did other priorities come into play, yes. Including a couple of injuries, graduating, and life in general. Like most decent HS runners that end up on schlarship at a D1 school, running is a huge priority. But at some point you realize you have limits (you are not going to the Olympics), graduating, grad school, battling injuries, and time take over. No excuses just what happened. He has no regrets, although he really wanted to break 30, and was disapointed for a few weeks.

College training is a big adjustment, regardless of how talented a kid is in high school. Some coaches just look at FR year as a chance to get a bunch of 19-year-olds acclimated to heavy volume, high-intensity workloads.

It also seems like a time when injuries are pretty common. And given that great high school runners have rarely encountered serious injuries (the kind that require more than two weeks of rest), they're probably not going to know how to manage the damage while training.

So, there's a low chance that a FR can stay healthy on 70-80 a week from June to January. Lower chance that he can keep rolling on that into the track season. Even lower chance that, with the jump in training, he'll feel sharp enough on race days to throw down legit times.

I'd say a 14:25/ 30:15 is a victory for most 9:00 guys their first year. The big times probably won't come until Soph and Junior year.

jbhbkjbk wrote:

5k? 10k?

14:10 and 29:45?

What times would show pretty solid progression from Senior year in HS to freshmen year for a 9:00 guy?

The correct answer is 14:17 and 29:50.

you cant predict a 10k time using a 3.2k time, 10k is 3 times longer. For all you know this freshman could not handle the 10k race. I could run 5k in 15:40 but it took me 29:30 to throw down a 8k.