Predicted 2 M Finish Times by Altitude
Elevation Time min/km min/mile
sea level 8:44.7 2:43.0 4:22.4
1000 ft (305 m) 8:45.8 2:43.4 4:22.9
2000 ft (610 m) 8:46.9 2:43.7 4:23.4
3000 ft (914 m) 8:48.0 2:44.0 4:24.0
4000 ft (1219 m)8:49.0 2:44.4 4:24.5
5000 ft (1524 m)8:50.1 2:44.7 4:25.1
6000 ft (1829 m)8:51.2 2:45.0 4:25.6
7000 ft (2134 m)8:52.3 2:45.4 4:26.1
8000 ft (2438 m)8:53.4 2:45.7 4:26.7
9000 ft (2743 m)8:54.4 2:46.0 4:27.2
10000 ft (3048 m)8:55.5 2:46.4 4:27.8
Calculations are based on data from Daniels' Running Formula by Jack Daniels PhD.
Note: Predicted finish times assume the runner is already acclimatized to the alitude.
For Flagstaff, the NCAA conversion is about 20 seconds for the 3k right? Let's just say at 4500ft, it would be a 15 second conversion for an non-acclimated runner. So that woul be 8:34 at sea level at best.