CAM LEVINS vs CHRIS DERRICK - who wins at world XC?

The California boy beats the Canadian in those conditions? I'd say advantage Levins.

I'm predicting Leavins will be top 10 and Derrick in the 20s.

InWyo wrote:

The California boy beats the Canadian in those conditions? I'd say advantage Levins.

I'll take Levins as well but don't forget Chris is from Illinois while Cam is from Vancouver Island, I wouldn't say the conditions work in favour of either

Illinois is much colder in the winter than Vancouver Island. It's not even close.

Are you suggesting that Cam didn't grow up in an igloo?

Canadian XC championship is run in the snow almost every year... So Levins is experienced in racing in the snow. I think that's more important than experience of training in the snow.

I'm going with Levins just because Levins walked all over him last time they met up, NCAAs. Not really sure whom the conditions favor, but I think this is an advantage for both of them over the Kenyans.

Ejnedcjkncedckjn wrote:

Canadian XC championship is run in the snow almost every year... So Levins is experienced in racing in the snow. I think that's more important than experience of training in the snow.

The last two years it was run in Vancouver BC in about 50 degree temps

Vancouver Island has the highest density of mountain lions, and attacks by same, on the planet. Illinois gave us Lincoln Logs. Levins prevails.

I doubt if Cam has raced in the snow more than a few times in his life, certainly not enough to be classified as having an advantage over Chris, for that reason.

Although the cougar density on Vancouver Island is high, sightings and attacks are extremely rare. They usually are quite content to munch on the deer population, well away from most humans. The density of runners on Vancouver Island is also very high, and the vast majority haven't run into a cougar, 4-legged variety of course.

Neither.

although Levins hasn't raced much on snow, he won his first National Title on a snow packed course.

Derrick, and it won't be that close (20+ seconds)

I have this outside feeling that Leavins might really blow one out here. I'm saying "top 8"

He's been consistent and very high mileage (averaging 150 - 200). Yet he ran a good 2 mile indoor race :

1 Bernard Lagat Nike 8:09.49

2 Andrew Bumbalough Nike 8:13.02

3 Cam Levins Nike 8:14.69

4 Evan Jager Nike 8:14.95

It was his only indoor race and was running it through high mileage. A little taper and sharpening might make him very strong this weekend.

Chris derrick top 5, cam levins top 30.

Utah Spy wrote:

I have this outside feeling that Leavins might really blow one out here. I'm saying "top 8"

He's been consistent and very high mileage (averaging 150 - 200). Yet he ran a good 2 mile indoor race :

1 Bernard Lagat Nike 8:09.49

2 Andrew Bumbalough Nike 8:13.02

3 Cam Levins Nike 8:14.69

4 Evan Jager Nike 8:14.95

It was his only indoor race and was running it through high mileage. A little taper and sharpening might make him very strong this weekend.

Correct.

You heard it here second.

Anyone predicting Derrick over Levins is deluded. The last time they raced was a blow-out in Levins's favor, and Levins has shown far more upside.

Also, Derrick may be vulnerable to American Distance Runner Syndrome and lose gonads in the race Ritz-style, coming >60th. Levins has shown he has the sack to roll with anyone on earth.

"Two new scientific studies confirm the Island's reputation as the place with the highest frequency of cougar attacks on humans in North America, but researchers still have no definitive explanation."http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=d1a9c0e0-69ea-4f7b-b3c4-67375443550ehttp://bc.ctvnews.ca/boy-in-hospital-after-vancouver-island-cougar-attack-1.916638Attacks are rare, but still the highest rate in the world. A larger danger is actually predatory black bears.

alejandro wrote:

Although the cougar density on Vancouver Island is high, sightings and attacks are extremely rare. They usually are quite content to munch on the deer population, well away from most humans. The density of runners on Vancouver Island is also very high, and the vast majority haven't run into a cougar, 4-legged variety of course.

Interesting links, thanks. I have run or walked into 2 bears on the Island, but never a cougar. Back to Cam/Chris, I hope they both finish top 15ish.

For whatever it's worth, if we rank the entrants by their 5,000m best since March 2012, then:

1- Merga ETH 12:59.7

2- Kipsiro UGA 13:00.6

3- Demelash ETH 13:03.3

4- Birmingham AUS 13:09.5

5- Derrick USA 13:12.0

6 - Fathi MAR 13:12.1

7 - Medhin ERI 13:17.2

8 - Adem ERI 13:17.3

9 - Gerenew ETH 13:17.4

10 - Levins CAN 13:18.2

Notice a few things...

France and Germany did not enter anybody

Morocco and Mexico only entered one guy each

All the top Kenyans and Ethiopians are not there (except for Merga)

Only one of the top 8 Americans at 5,000m are not there (Rupp, Lagat, Lomong, Derrick, Ritz, Teg, Bumby, Torrence)

It will be disappointing if Derrick and Levins don't make top 10.

This is not the World XC as we knew it...