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Galen Rupp has no chance to break Bernard Lagat's U.S. indoor record of 7:32.43. It is clear that Galen has peaked and he will turn 27 in May, having run his best times already. Galen probably won't even win in Stockholm, as Iguider or Ndiku is likely to defeat him. Galen has had a nice little career, even better than I thought, but he has reached his ceiling, and I am nothing if not an expert on ceilings. Galen, good luck tomorrow, but it is time to be realistic about your prospects, no matter how much panting and salivating is done by the fanboys.
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He's back.
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i'm sure they call you in with your ladder & shovel, as an "expert on ceilings", as the 1 man army, when there is a methane explosion in the depot at county sanitation ...
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Bernard Lagat is past his peak. He set all his PRs running for Kenya.
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Wlpos wrote:
Bernard Lagat is past his peak. He set all his PRs running for Kenya.
No, only PRs at mile and shorter. 3000, 2 mile, 5000 were all set as American. And his shorter PRs (including 3:26) were done from training in the USA with Dr. Li.
If Lagat's 3000m was done as a Kenyan, why would Rupp be trying to break his AMERICAN Record? That's letsrun stupid. -
Welcome back SPMBLNPF it has been a while.
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Rupp and Farah are now pulling multiple peeks.....how do they do it?
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Like they have always done. They have two 20 week cycles each year and peak during indoors and outdoors.
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rupp ran a fantastic 3'50.9i, worth on ncaa app/1.08 conversion as
~ high-3'31 outdoors
right now !!
he's a 3k/5k/10k guy ( his size is suited to shorter of middle distances - 3k may always have been his best distance )
he can go 7'24, perhaps even 7'23 outdoors right now !!!
the ncaa app gives indoor/outdoor 3k difference as ~ 5s
if he guns it from shot to tape, he shoud look at
7'28/7'29 -
That prediction is wrong. He cannot run remotely close to 7:24 outdoors and indoors is not as slow as that app has it. He is in 7:31-7:33 shape right now and has done nothing to prove otherwise.
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First of all, you don't know what is a peak until it's over. What is common is to use indoors to do under-distance, at least initially, and a shorter distance event (Rupp's mile) can be used to program a longer effort later. That is a single peak.
There are plenty of sprinters who peak for indoors, US Nationals, and Worlds/Olympics because the US Nationals are so competitive and they have to. Charlie Francis used to do that. Distance people have a much harder time with 3 peaks because the base takes longer to build, and the championship efforts with heats take much more out of you and longer to recover from.
You can program a peak by going back from comp to rebuild your base a bit (give you something to taper from), then progressively cutting mileage and upping intensity (you know, what Alan Webb DIDN'T do in 2007?).
If you do this too many times, your ultimate peak will be short and narrow because you didn't build enough of a base, but you can do it multiple times if you want to. -
Canova>God wrote:
That prediction is wrong. He cannot run remotely close to 7:24 outdoors and indoors is not as slow as that app has it. He is in 7:31-7:33 shape right now and has done nothing to prove otherwise.
He has done something to prove otherwise. He ran a 3:51 mile! He ran a 7:34 3000 shortly after that. Galen needs to red-line as a runner. He is not the best tactical racer as I suspect many would agree. Sure he does get it right occasionally, but he needs to get his rhythm and press hard the whole way. If they had some good rabbits and little racing tacticians in the event, it is entirely like he could get under 7:30. Your comment has no basis in fact or evidence. -
This will piss some people off wrote:
Canova>God wrote:
That prediction is wrong. He cannot run remotely close to 7:24 outdoors and indoors is not as slow as that app has it. He is in 7:31-7:33 shape right now and has done nothing to prove otherwise.
Your comment has no basis in fact or evidence.
Besides the fact he ran 7:33 3k 2 weeks ago, but don't let facts get in your way. No chance Rupp goes sub-7:30 indoors. -
eh ?
he's a previous, ole, 26'48 guy who just smashed a 3'50i
it means he has superb mile ability & avariciously preserves speed with increasing race length
he's a current outdoor
7'23/7'24 -
Yeah a 3:50 and a 7:33 do not show that he is in 7:28/7:29 shape. I stand behind my 7:31-7:33 prediction if the race goes out hard.
About Rupp's peaking. He does peak indoors and outdoors. He works on speed and endurance all year but to peak he ups the intensity of his training for 8 to 9 weeks. During this time the training is not that different than the rest of the year he just runs harder. After that he tapers and reduces the volume to be rested for his goal race. After his indoor and outdoor peak he will take two weeks off and then two weeks of easy jogging before he returns to his normal training. -
Fluffy wrote:Besides the fact he ran 7:33 3k 2 weeks ago, but don't let facts get in your way. No chance Rupp goes sub-7:30 indoors.
i 1/2 suspected rupp wasn't ready for that 3k v geb2 or 3 ( the 12'46/47 ones ) just week after his 3'50, same as he didn't recover quick enough from 10k to the 5k in OG
he needs more than 1/52 gap between peak efforts
consequence of being young guy/low mileage/concentrating more on 5k/hx of allergies/etc
doesn't engender great recovery
at present, until/if he "matures", a 2/52 gap looks better for repeating peak performances
by '16, hopefully, this gap is within 1/52
( see how crap mo looked in his 5k heat after his 10k
it looked no chance of a 5k gold, but slow race & finished-article got the miracle... ) -
Nooooo!!! Now that you've said that, he WILL break the record, which sucks for me because I want Bernie to keep it.
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spade detector wrote:
Nooooo!!! Now that you've said that, he WILL break the record, which sucks for me because I want Bernie to keep it.
Yeah, but Eldrick is calling 7:24, and that makes Bernie safe. -
no idea who's calling it 7'24 indoors ???
( sounds pretty good for current outdoors whoever called it )
i said
7'28/7'29 i
he at worst as those indoor kenyans last year & approaching the ethiopian who ran 7'27i year before -
ventolin^3 wrote:
no idea who's calling it 7'24 indoors ???
( sounds pretty good for current outdoors whoever called it )
Of course it sounds good to you, as you are the one who called it. Are you for real? Galen Rupp will NEVER break 7:30 for 3000m, except on your calculator, which for most of us is not reality. It is always good to know that you are still living in fantasy land, as you provide ample entertainment with your imaginative calculations.
