If so, it's about time some girl finally cracked 4:30. I would expect it gets done by 3 girls in the next decade.
If so, it's about time some girl finally cracked 4:30. I would expect it gets done by 3 girls in the next decade.
Yes, I would say so.
I figure 4:26 = 4:00, so 4:00 and 4:30 are pretty close
I always thought it was more like 4:33-35
Almost a Senior wrote:
I always thought it was more like 4:33-35
Someone once posted that a sub 5 mile for a girl was physiologically equivalent to a 4:26 for a boy, yet competitively was more similar to a 4:16.
That still holds true in my mind.
IAAF Tables: 4:36.23, under which four girls have gone (including conversions): Cain, Hasay, Plumer and Babcock.
The rocket. wrote:
If so, it's about time some girl finally cracked 4:30. I would expect it gets done by 3 girls in the next decade.
I would say it is more like 4:33, which means Cain is the first girl to run the sub-3 equivalent.
4:20
coachkritter wrote:
4:20
I agree. Due to the lack of talent draw as most girls play soccer I would agree with this. While top performers are setting records, the truth is the depth of girls performances are weaker than ever despite participation numbers increasing. Soccer is stealing middle distance talent, and the fact is there is no Jim Ryun of the girls side yet.
Consider this angle. The correct answer is around a sub 4:38 for a girl is about equivalent to a sub 4 for a guy. Here is where I get that.
If you look at the sub 4 milers in college men right now , there is about 21 of them. If you look at the top 21 ranked college women they are all at 4:38 or better. What gives this method more weight is that no other high school girl right now is near the 4:38 mark other than Mary Cain just as no high school boys are near a sub 4.
Mary Cains mark for a high school girl is very equivalent to Alan Webbs outdoor mile mark of 3:53xx for a high school boy. Mary Cain is just ahead of the top college mark right now which is national and NCAA steeple champion Emma Coburns 4:29xx. Webbs time was also ahead of the top college miler at the time who was CSU's NCAA champion Bryan Berryhill who was behind Webb at a 3:55xx in the same meet.
The rocket. wrote:
If so, it's about time some girl finally cracked 4:30. I would expect it gets done by 3 girls in the next decade.
hmm well it would be nice but it didnt work out that way for the guys. Its been 12 years since Webb broke 4 and I don't think anyone else has done it other than 19 yr old senior Verzbicas.
The IAAF tables are the proper comparison. 4:36 it is.
As we all know, women's running depth is not as great as men's. Nonetheless, I thought I would compare the USATF yearly list for 2012 (indoor and out) of men v. women. There were 50 men under 4:00 last year. Only 18 women were under 4:36. The IAAF ranking of 4:36/4:00 seems to be reasonable.
Certainly Polly Plumer was ahead of her time.
If you look at the physiology side of it 4:36 is much weaker than 4:00.