Enough of the endless arguments about conversions, let's actually talk about what people have run so far this year.
Starting with the 5000, it looks like this is a bit of a down year relative to the last couple years (though maybe more like what it was in prior to 2011), with only 5 guys at sub 14:30 and nobody running any blazing times. Hard to know how much of that is the new conversions scaring people away from banked tracks and how much of it is just the quality of the field. I'd say its primarily the latter, as not many of the guys at the top end of the list have particularly impressive credentials. It is crazy that 3 of the top 5 times are coming from Haverford, that is pretty unprecedented. I'd say these guys are going to be the main players at nationals...
Chris Stadler - Haverford: Fastest time in d3 so far (14:23) in a race he won by 5 seconds over his teammates. Also has run a 4:12 in the mile (winning that race as well) so he's got the speed to finish hard, and was strong enough to finish 12th in xc last fall
John Crain - North Central: Just a tiny bit behind Stadler time-wise in both his 5k and mile (14:24 and 4:12), also winning both races, and he was the 6th place finisher at xc nationals. North Central guys have a history of performing really well at track nationals, so this guy is definitely one of the favorites.
Bobby Over - Allegheny: His 14:25 was on an oversized track in a pretty competitive race, and his other performances this season haven't been all that stellar. He was the 2nd place finisher at xc nationals in the fall, however, so you have to see him as a potential contender if he has a good day.
Michael LeDuc - Connecticut College: Not quite as impressive this season as Stadler and Crain, but he ran his 14:28 winning by 7 seconds, was 13th in cross, and 4th in the steeple last year, so he's probably going to be up there and could certainly mix it up with the leaders
I know less about the milers, but Dan Sullivan seems pretty well poised at this point to take the title, even if he does the DMR as well. He's got the fastest mile (4:08) and 800 (1:52.2) in d3, and was the outdoor champ last outdoors against a really competitive field. Saksa from St. Olaf has run fast so far as well (4:09) but the rest of the milers this season have been pretty slow thus far, with only 4 guys under 4:12 and I bet Schillit does the DMR/5k double. Might see some fast times these last two weeks that will give us more of a sense of who else could be up there.
I'll let someone else break down the 800, and its hard to say much about the DMR at this point, other than pointing out the 9:56 on the flat track by Lacrosse as pretty impressive. I guess the northeast teams will give it another shot at a last chance meet, but again the field seems a little watered down at this point.