What are the chances that Mary Cain skips college and goes straight to Nike from HS? Training and racing in college would be a waste.
What are the chances that Mary Cain skips college and goes straight to Nike from HS? Training and racing in college would be a waste.
I'd say she'll go to college but not compete collegiately.
She should go the Allyson Felix/Evan Jager-post-Wisconsin route, be trained by Salazar the whole time, and just fvck sh!t up.
Kids from her HS traditionally prep for Princeton, and I gather she's a kid who aspires a complete college experience. For pure excitement and the most radical existence she would choose UC Berkeley. For instant front page exposure to the global sports world and media machine she would choose UCLA. But again I would put my money on Princeton.
I do not see her running college. She will train with Salazar and go to college on her parents dime.
bobby s wrote:
I do not see her running college. She will train with Salazar and go to college on her parents dime.
Correction, she will go to college on Nike's dime.
I read that Ajee Wilson is going to Temple while competing as a pro, and that Adidas is paying her way at Temple. I think a new business model is emerging for these very elite athletes. Better for these very few athletes and ultimately better for sports that they are not locked up by the NCAA.
I wouldn't be surprised if she goes the Robbie Andrews route, competes for 1-2 years until she's won a national championship or three, and then goes pro.
why would you think that? andrews wasn't anywhere near the top collegiate guys his senior year in high school. cain already is better than nearly everyone in college and nearly every american pro at this point and she is midway through indoor track of her junior year. collegiate running would be a waste of time for her. her focus should be on making the world team this year and rio in 2016.
What? She doesn't go to college? She is at least a middle class and maybe upper middle class suburban kid. She can be a welder? I don't think so. And the economic prospects which attach to being a pro runner, even one at the top of the national heap, are so dismal it makes sense to focus on educational and career development first, and track and field as, well, a means to express herself.
This is the problem I had with Alan Webb's decision to leave Michigan and never finish school. Yeah, I get it, he did well for a time training in relative isolation. And I get the Division 1 grind - I was a Div. 1 scholarship runner myself 25 years ago. But Alan was a middle/upper middle class kid who in the long run will not prosper from his decision to quit college and pursue the marginal sport of pro running. Young people need a peer group in areas other than running.
The XC championships this weekend only amplify these points. A small crowd in Saint Louis listening to lousy pop music hits (including Snoop Dogg) watched the race. It had an amateur, hobby like feel (the top athletes are great, not a knock on them). The "webcast" was atop a windswept tower with amateur announcers. And an average of 2000 people watched the amateur webcast. And $2,000 for being the best in the nation? $100 for 10th? (That doesn't even cover taking the athlete and their family out to dinner that evening). This at a national championship? And you think it makes sense for Mary Cain to not focus on college and education? Really?
Snowmobile jumps at the X Games - a manufactured piece of lousy entertainment - attracts more interest than the XC national championship.
hmmm, hmmmm, hmmmm wrote:
What? She doesn't go to college? She is at least a middle class and maybe upper middle class suburban kid. She can be a welder? I don't think so. And the economic prospects which attach to being a pro runner, even one at the top of the national heap, are so dismal it makes sense to focus on educational and career development first, and track and field as, well, a means to express herself.
This is the problem I had with Alan Webb's decision to leave Michigan and never finish school. Yeah, I get it, he did well for a time training in relative isolation. And I get the Division 1 grind - I was a Div. 1 scholarship runner myself 25 years ago. But Alan was a middle/upper middle class kid who in the long run will not prosper from his decision to quit college and pursue the marginal sport of pro running. Young people need a peer group in areas other than running.
The XC championships this weekend only amplify these points. A small crowd in Saint Louis listening to lousy pop music hits (including Snoop Dogg) watched the race. It had an amateur, hobby like feel (the top athletes are great, not a knock on them). The "webcast" was atop a windswept tower with amateur announcers. And an average of 2000 people watched the amateur webcast. And $2,000 for being the best in the nation? $100 for 10th? (That doesn't even cover taking the athlete and their family out to dinner that evening). This at a national championship? And you think it makes sense for Mary Cain to not focus on college and education? Really?
Snowmobile jumps at the X Games - a manufactured piece of lousy entertainment - attracts more interest than the XC national championship.
did you forget to take your meds today? who said that she would sklp college altogether? webb also went to GMU so you might want to check your facts.
[quote]hmmm, hmmmm, hmmmm wrote:
What? She doesn't go to college? She is at least a middle class and maybe upper middle class suburban kid. She can be a welder? [quote]
Just a heads up- she can go to college AND run professionally. As others have noted, that's exactly what Ajee Wilson and Evan Jager are doing.
High school running stars are somewhat like elite gymnasts. They have a choice to retain their eligibility or go pro and capitalize on their current successes. There were several gymnasts last year at this time that went pro and gave up their college eligibility banking on the fact that they would make the olympic team and cash in. then the injuries happened, they didn't make the team, and now they are paying for college on their own when they could have had a full ride.
cain is awesome and first thought is to capitalize on it. but at this level, he is one run away from an injury cycle that could ruin her pro career. she could also have another growth spurt that could slow her substantially.
the sure money is a college scholarship. if it turns out she is too good in college, she can bail after a couple of years and go pro. this is what missy franklin is doing. but, it's so risky to make the move to pro for a HS distance runner.
Just listening to her, she would probably be a perfect fit at a school like Oregon. Oregon seems to do well with these kids who are a bit non-conformist and willing to go outside the box. My bet is that she will continue to be coached by Salazar, but attend classes at Oregon for a couple years before turning pro. The Oregon head coach, Robert Johnson, has been extremely receptive to Nike overtures and has a laid-back attitude toward the distance runners in his program. IMO, Oregon offers a rare opportunity for someone like Mary Cain. In deference to the other poster, UCLA or Berkeley not so much.
Here's my official MC schedule.
2013 - she tries to make the USA team for Moscow. Doubtful that she makes it.
She has a senior yr of high school in an off year – no oly no wc. Not sure what she will do - she isn’t good enough to go to Europe. We're up to June 2014.
Sept 2015 she goes to college and competes in the NCAA freshman year. She wins the 1500 and maybe 5k.
That gets her to June 2015. She has wrangled with her coach a way to not overrace in the NCAA so she can race all summer. She makes the WC 1500 team. Running an NCAA season is ok because realistically she won’t make a wc final anyway. Why not train with a group and get an education? She just isn’t fast enough yet to make a living on the track.
Soph yr (starting September 2015) in college is a tougher choice - that is an olympic year. Seems to me that is the big choice year – train like a pro for the big double peak (trials/OG) or just hope things work out with an NCAA season. Team Cain will probably make that choice after freshman yr.
But seems clear to me that the best choice is to run a traditional freshman year in college - she just won't be good enough for the pro level.
agip,
Either she improves in 2014 and skipping is a real option or she doesn't improve in 2014 and the college looks good because no one can predict when she will improve again.
College running is a blast. She could do it for one year and then turn pro in June of 2015. I don't think money is an issue for that family.
Weighted decisions wrote:
High school running stars are somewhat like elite gymnasts. They have a choice to retain their eligibility or go pro and capitalize on their current successes. There were several gymnasts last year at this time that went pro and gave up their college eligibility banking on the fact that they would make the olympic team and cash in. then the injuries happened, they didn't make the team, and now they are paying for college on their own when they could have had a full ride.
cain is awesome and first thought is to capitalize on it. but at this level, he is one run away from an injury cycle that could ruin her pro career. she could also have another growth spurt that could slow her substantially.
the sure money is a college scholarship. if it turns out she is too good in college, she can bail after a couple of years and go pro. this is what missy franklin is doing. but, it's so risky to make the move to pro for a HS distance runner.
you are clueless if you think female gymnasts and runners are similar. how many 25, 30 or 35 year old professional gymnasts do you know?
(I had a date wrong)
Here's my official MC schedule.
2013 - she tries to make the USA team for Moscow. Doubtful that she makes it.
She has a senior yr of high school in an off year – no oly no wc. Not sure what she will do - she isn’t good enough to go to Europe. We're up to June 2014.
Sept 2014 she goes to college and competes in the NCAA freshman year. She wins the 1500 and maybe 5k.
That gets her to June 2015. She has wrangled with her coach a way to not overrace in the NCAA so she can race all summer. She makes the beijing WC 1500 team. Running an NCAA season is ok because realistically she won’t make a wc final anyway. Why not train with a group and get an education? She just isn’t fast enough yet to make a living on the track.
Soph yr (starting September 2015) in college is a tougher choice - that is an olympic year and she will be close to her peak years. Seems to me that is the big choice year – train like a pro for the big double peak (trials/OG) or just hope things work out with an NCAA season. Team Cain will probably make that choice after freshman yr.
But seems clear to me that the best choice is to run a traditional freshman year in college - she just won't be good enough for the pro level.
Right Seat Pilot wrote:
Kids from her HS traditionally prep for Princeton, and I gather she's a kid who aspires a complete college experience. For pure excitement and the most radical existence she would choose UC Berkeley. For instant front page exposure to the global sports world and media machine she would choose UCLA. But again I would put my money on Princeton.
Shut up.