how fast to run tempo runs for sub-3?

I am not a marathoner (well I ran one), however based on what I've read and intuition, I think it's going to be more about extending those 6:30 pace runs up to 6 miles. Your 800s are run at well under 6:20 pace anyways, so stay consistent with those for speed.

Sub 3 would be a big breakthrough. I'm not saying you can't, but it would be good to have a B goal of sub 3:05. How realistic it is depends on well, timing. If you can keep getting in quality training, improve your fitness, and still have enough time to show up to the line tapered and fresh, you might be able to break 3 in peak shape.

yay wrote:

10x800 in 2:50s

If you can do this, you're not lacking in speed. This seems a bit exaggerated for someone who hasn't broken 3:00 yet or who can't even muster a low-6 pace in a short tempo run. For one, Yasso repeats, which these 800s are, can "predict" your marathon time (2:50), and second, 10x seems a bit on the excessive side (unless you're taking a long rest break in between repeats). 5x, 6x, maybe 7x seems a bit more reasonable. Third, 10x800m = 8000m. At 2:50 per 800m, it gives you a cumulative race-pace time of 28:20 for 8000m. If you can do this workout, it would be on the conservative side that you can at least break 29 in an 8k. Convert that into a calculator, and you're looking at a low-2:50 marathon.

You're not lacking in speed; you're either overstating this workout, or you're seriously lacking in aerobic endurance.

let's define a tempo run - 20 minutes at 1 hour race pace.

2nd - you should be doing your tempo runs on a flat, well groomed course in order to practice a constant pace AND effort.

3rd - 6:30 pace for 5 miles (hilly) would be worth what, conservatively... 6:25 on a flat course.

now, let's apply all the methods to adjust from tempo to a race result to a potential marathon result.

6:25 pace for 32 minutes might mean that your true tempo pace for 20 minutes is 6:15. this indicates to me that you can probably run 18:10 - 5k, 30:00 - 8k, 38:15 - 10k, 1:23:30 half. these results would strongly indicate sub 3 potential.

now, your 4-5 mile tempo runs are fine, but they are not as specific as a 9 mile tempo in 60 minutes.

the requisite speed to break 3 for the following forms of a tempo run would be something like this to me

20 minute -- 6:20

30 minute -- 6:25

40 minute -- 6:35

50 minute -- 6:40/6:37

60 minute -- 6:40

all of your other runs are solid. what kind of mileage have you been getting in?

Thanks for all the responses. I've been doing about 60 mpw. Would like to increase but finding it hard to commit the time to it (I generally have about an hour a day to run and then longer on the weekends).

It may very well be the hilly course that is the problem. I should try running for an hour at 6:40 on a flat course and see how difficult that is.