HEPS XC

as of right now lieb is back running now, but who knows what the future will bring

Brown loses their #3,4,5 runners.

Columbia loses their #1,7 runners.

Yale loses their #7 runner.

Dartmouth loses their #1,2,7 runners.

Princeton loses their #1,2,6 runners.

Harvard, Penn, and Cornell aren't winning this year anyway.

dartmouth's #7 (welsh) is back as a 5th year sr

how about on the women's side? just columbia or princeton? anyone else with a chance?

dartmouth has some good new kids coming in - who knows if they will make any impact in their first year...

Some individual favorites: Hyde, Lieb, Maclean-Foremean, Meyer

None of the incoming freshman will make a significant impact, especially with Dartmouth coaching them straight into a drunken haze of 27minutes+. Sorry Ben True, this isn't HS anymore...

Yale - Strong MD + Meyer, could carry over into a good XC season? Peaking isn't generally that good, but in XC: who cares? Ireland is a solid coach.

Columbia - Good workhorse program...no Sundell? No problem...maybe.

Dusen shoudl be back for action, and Groothius ran a blazing 3k I believe (8:06?)

Princeton - Lot's of talent, another decathelete...another underachieving year. Maybe this new guy will be less-bad than brady?

Penn - Solid MD squad + Lieb....GO DUSTY! Depth is somewhat lacking...

but a heps 10k champ is a good place to start. Lieb was all-american as well, should be running with hyde.

Cornell - Big 800m school, with a trio of Milers (tasinari346, hyde 342, someone-else 350)...hyde could win. Johnson has been doing a good job with the no-talent express...now they're getting recruits (supposedly) so who knows.

Dartmouth - Much hyped freshman class...what else is new? Still, Dartmouth has been damn solid in XC since the MCardle days. These guys might not be good on the track but Harwick sure can peak em for XC right. Tons of 25-something guys could spell trouble for the other school...lacking up front.

Harvard - Is Foreman-Mclean back? An individual champion possibilty could save some face for this distaster-bound program. Where is Galebach? The Crimson needs that guy to become anything other than off-Red.

Brown - Defending champs, strong 3k-10k focused program is custom-built for XC. This squad isn't a Cornell/Penn (mid-D powerhouses)...it's got the big guns over the big distances and should be ready to prove it again. These guys aren't going to have to watch 800m specialists trying to run 10x the distance, and that should make them feel good...very good. Returning Champs.

Bump

brown- they have a good 1-2 punch (gaudette, tarpy) and a solid #3 in washburn (14:28, 8:18). i'm not sure where they're going to get the rest of their guys from... they do have some average/respectable distance guys, but a couple of them will really need to improve for them to think about repeating

harvard- might be better than people think... their top 3 (maclean-foreman, galebach, and bienvenu) was actually reasonable at heps xc last year, and foreman gives them something to work with up front at least. still, hard to see them placing better than 5th or 6th, and could very well end up last

yale- should probably be considered the favorites on paper, with meyer (8:47sc, 14:13), moriarty (14:22, 3:50), napper (8:21, 30:44), yelsey (3:47), and dantzer (8:20, 14:35). depth is a problem though... if one of those guys gets injured and misses time, it's a long way back to #6 - i don't feel entirely comfortable predicting them to win

princeton- hard to say how they'll perform. they have enough talent to win, but then again they do every year. they probably should've won heps last year, or at least been very close, but ran by far their worst race of the season and wound up fifth. they have a couple very good recruits coming in (like always), and macreery (29:48) and smith (29:58) along with stern (3:49) are strong up front

dartmouth- they got 4th last year after losing most of their guys from the team that won in 02. they return their 3-7 runners. a few guys who weren't in their top 7 last year had very good track seasons - brissette (30:23), mucchetti (8:12i), and strong (9:03sc, 8:14). a couple of the newcomers (true, norton, gottesfeld) could break into the top 5. their problem could be a low number up front, they don't have a definite #1 guy like most other teams. still, their depth is second to none

penn- if lieb can stay healthy, he's my pick for the individual win. he's a tough sob and can kick with anyone. these guys have the potential to have a good team, with tully, hayes, and about a million 3:50ish 1500 guys filling out their roster. hard for me to see them contending for the win, mostly because lieb and tully are their only real contributers who aren't milers moving up. but you never know with these guys, they could surprise

cornell- finally have the talent to break out of the cellar. hyde is a very legit #1 and has the best track pr's of anyone in the league (3:42, 8:03). mort and arlinghaus were very good in outdoor, both breaking 9:00 for the steeple. tassinari has run 3:46, but that was over a year ago and hasn't looked quite as good since. track isn't xc though, and the only person on their roster who's ever had a good college xc race is hyde. they were terrible last year, and will improve significantly no matter what... they'd have to consider finishing in the top 4 a big success.

columbia- dusen (14:13, 29:5?) and groothius (8:09, 3:46, 14:18) will probably give columbia the lead after 2 scorers. both of those guys are rock solid, although it's doubtful either of them could contend for the win. after that the picture gets a little less clear. frazin is a pretty good runner (14:33), but they're in trouble if they have to rely on him as their #3 guy. apparantly they have some good recruits coming in, and they're going to need them to help shore up the top 5

Prediction

1) Dartmouth

2) Yale

3) Princeton

4) Columbia

5) Upenn

6) Brown

7) Cornell

8) Harvard

Don't forget Muchetti who ran 8:12 indoors for Dartmouth.

Brown- appears to only have two guys, but washburn emerged in outdoors, though it remanis to be seen if he can convert that to cross country. Their seeming lack of depth may be offset by their impressive team dynamic, that should be one of the stories of heps. Not the favorite, but stil a team contender

Yale- Return everyone. Not sure how coach Ireland keeps these guys healthy running in new haven, but if the core group from last year can continue to miraculously stay healthy they should be a team contender.

Colombia- lack of depth again, maybe partially ofset by a strong recruiting class. Groothies is a little weaker in cross, maybe he will have finally found his strength this year. Dusen has excelled despite pretty rough luck healthwise, if he has a good string of training he will probably move to one of the elite in the ivies. Surprised if these guys have the depth to comepete.

Princeton- don't know too much about these guys, however they dominated the 10k outdoors and if their cross team could ever capture the mentality they have running the distances indoors and outdoors they would probably be more consistant. Good top 2 or three, princeton always has a FL finalist that's been injured for 3 years readys to break out and have a good season. Probably not a team contendeder.

Harvard- is Alistair coming back? It doesn't matter too much outside of individual performances, these guys should seriously give someone else their travel budget. Galeback could contend for a good spot in the chase pack. Contend with cornell for bragging rights in the cellar

Dartmouth- Lose their top two, but a lot of guys broke out either indoors or outdoors. Combine this with hopefully at least half of the injured runners returning and you have the deepest team in the league. A clear favorite if top 7 scored, however if they have a respectably healthy squad who run consistantly and the talented freshman contribute they could win by packing their guys in spots 5-15.

Cornell- Have yet to beat a heps team while coached by Rojo, this year they should beat harvard, but they do not have a good record in cross country and it will be interesting to see hydes influence on the team beyond his running. While a perenial bottom feeder, cornel does have the potential to surprise people, but not to contend.

As for the questions- they're tough here are my GUESSES

who does brown lose? anyone? Yes either yale or dartmouth

will princeton choke yet again? yes, they don't have the depth for many mistakes

how many people does columbia lose? 1 big one

is yale a dark horse or an outright favorite? One of 4 contenders

is harvard's mclean-forman (last year's runner-up) the individual favorite? No all americans Leib and Gaudette will contend with hyde and probably one more surprise runner

does dartmouth have anyone at all to help make another title run? Yes, strongest 3-4-5 runners in the league, their 6-7 should beat most teams 4 and 5. However need to have a few front runners develop

will penn's lieb be running? Hopefully he realizes now what it takes to stay healthy.

Good luck, Stay healthy Teams need to be able to score points off each other at Heps- so get your shit together

Harvard-Cornell ought to be interesting...but I would point out that Johnson's coaching has had a very significant impact in the mid-D, up to about the steeple. They're biggest handicap is total lack of 5k/10k guys. Do they have a single long distance specialist? I know they have like 10guys under 1:53, and a few under 3:50...but any 5k/10k guys?

Harvard has a slew of somewhat competitive 5k/10k runners, as seen at heps outdoor, and that could give them the edge. All those 15minute guys could be helpful against cornell. Hyde/Foreman don't do LD, but it doesn't even matter...they are damn fast. Foreman has the talent, Hyde has the work ethic, they should be 1-2, one way or the other.

We (harvard) do have a incoming freshman who's an all american in 800 track.

1:53(?) in the 800 indoors

Dartmouth has a 1:49 guy who ran 1:50 indoors and won nationals.

I know this question may have been answered somewhere already but where was Hyde last year? Something about eligibility problems?

Brian Hanak of Yale will step it up this year and win the whole thing.

I hear bruce is running 140 mpw...

Do all of Brown's runners come from Northern California? That's just what I heard...

I don't really know much about Ivy League XC, but don't be surprised if Ben True makes an immediate impact. True impressed me more in his HS career than any Maine runner in recent memory (Lane, Luchini, Gaudette, Tarpy, etc.). He's a special talent and I hope he gets developed well at Dartmouth.