T. Dibaba Destroys Olympic Marathon Champ Tiki Gelana By 1:01 At Seven Hills Loop 15km - How Good Will She Be At 26,2?

15km is not fundamentally different than 10,000m. A Half is getting there, and going from a Half to the Marathon is something that has eluded a number of fast Half runners.

For Dibaba, one of the advantages on the track is her finishing speed. At the marathon that is worth much, much less. She should be able to run 'well' (2:22-2:26) but I am not sure she is a 2:19 with high probability. [Look at the guy who has won five Half World titles.]

26mi235 wrote:

15km is not fundamentally different than 10,000m. A Half is getting there, and going from a Half to the Marathon is something that has eluded a number of fast Half runners.

For Dibaba, one of the advantages on the track is her finishing speed. At the marathon that is worth much, much less. She should be able to run 'well' (2:22-2:26) but I am not sure she is a 2:19 with high probability. [Look at the guy who has won five Half World titles.]

The closest analogue is Haile Gebrselassie.

47:08 = 2:22 from MacMillan, so there is a clue.

Here is the IAAF recap of the race:

http://www.iaaf.org/news/report/dibaba-and-kipkemboi-prevail-in-nijmegen-15k

Nicholas Kipkemboi Upset Men's 15k WR Holder Leonard Komon

To be a marathoner it's a totally different world.

Haile is the exception...not the rule

Anyways...Haile G (almost unbeatable in the track) could not beat a prime Wanjiru in a major marathon. In a normal day.

Same if Bekele stick to 26.2...he will be very good but never unbeatable like his track prime.

Is Nicholas Kipkemboi the same as Nicholas Kemboi?

Ben L. Wrong wrote:

To be a marathoner it's a totally different world.

Haile is the exception...not the rule

Anyways...Haile G (almost unbeatable in the track) could not beat a prime Wanjiru in a major marathon. In a normal day.

Same if Bekele stick to 26.2...he will be very good but never unbeatable like his track prime.

The only reason Haile and Bekele wouldn't be as unbeatable is because.... they would be competing in the marathon PAST THEIR PRIME. Has nothing to do with it being a different world. They are not the exceptions. Wanjiru himself is an example of this. He is better than Farah and Rupp at 10k.

Ben L. Wrong wrote:

Anyways...Haile G (almost unbeatable in the track) could not beat a prime Wanjiru in a major marathon. In a normal day.

Because he was in his 40s by the time he became a full-time marathon runner.

Pretty damned good, I'd say.