Does a freshman who runs a 4:40 1600 have sub 4 potential?

4:40 as a frosh is quite good. It does not immediately predict sub 4 but it does indicate some level of talent so sub 4 would definitely be possible.

Well, I ran 4:39 as a freshman in HS off of playing hockey all winter and not really running at all. Had run 17:09 in XC on a very flat course that past fall. Needless to say, I'm nowhere near sub 4 today.

No. Of course anything could happen, but 4:40 as a freshman is no promise of greatness. Promise of above-averageness, maybe, but it's not great.

It's highly unlikely but not impossible. 4:40 shows you have the talent, but you certainly won't have it come "easy" (and I don't mean easy, mainly I mean you don't have to put in insane training ie alan webb and jim ryun). You're pretty much gonna have to train as if you are already a pro and this is what you want to do w/ your life. Only then could you go sub 4 as a high schooler off of 4:40 frosh talent.

That depends. If he ends up running sub 4 then yes. If he doesn't, then maybe.

Also could you specify whether or not you did basketball or wrestling? You don't seem to be sure which one you competed in.

Personally I ran 4:45 as a freshman and eventually with a shitload of hard work and dedication I ran 4:11 in high school. It is definitely possible. You would need to put running first in most aspects of your life and make sure you stay consistant in everything from drills and diet to training and sleep. There have been far less talented people break 4 but I would guess that none would say it was easy or accomplished on talent alone.

Hope this helps

Most guys who break 4 either run 5:00+ or sub 4:25 their freshman year from what I've seen.

Mary Cain ran 4:38 as frosh and 4:31 as soph.

She had the same freshman PR in the 1600 as me. After my softmore year I'm a 4:24 guy. Feels good to be beating a HS girl.

Of the great many runners I ran with as a kid, and was aware of from schools in our large league, then also from my kids' teams and their leagues, here is what I have seen.

I know of about 50 or 60 kids from both eras who were 4:40 or faster freshmen, covering about 15 years in more than one state. Three were eventually sub four minute milers during their careers. By age 16, all three were huge stars in high school, in part because, by some very long odds, one of them was the #1 miler in the country and became the U.S. record holder. Another was super young and became a 16 year old senior who was sub 4:15, then went sub 4 around age 20 in college. The third was more steady, but still was sub 4:10 in high school as an 18 year old.

Most of the sub 4:40 frosh I know of did not run collegiately. I would say about half never broke 4:30, with some focusing on shorter distances, some with injuries, taking up of other sports, drug use, lack of interest in running, etc. I know of about ten who became sub 4:15 runners in high school or college, or both. That's a more likely trajectory for a 4:40 frosh wo is a committed runner. The three I know of who broke 4:00 were regarded as amazing talents by the more typical (but still very talented in comparison to an ordinary kid) kids who could run 4:40 as freshmen.

I definitely believe that there are runners who went from 4:40 as frosh to sub 4, but the three I know of personally who got there were much faster that young. All three also were commandingly talented in cross country very early on. After only about 8-10 weeks, the two who were typical age were competitive at the very front of state varsity championship meets and the younger one was by the same age.

yes, it's possible. it's also possible he'll never break 4:30. it's also possible he'll become president. it's also possible he'll be the first man on mars. it's also possible he'll be the next great guitarist to choke on his own vomit. or the first great guitarist to choke on someone else's vomit.

how do you quantify potential?

here's another way to look at your question: there are over 350 americans who've broken 4 in the mile in the last 55 years--more recently, 20 broke 4 in 2010. how many freshman boys run 4:40 every year? i don't know the answer to that question, but i'd be willing to bet over 50, though i'm just guessing here...

There have been far less talented people break 4 but I would guess that none would say it was easy or accomplished on talent alone [/quote]

How could you possibly conclude that "far less tallented" people broke 4 (mile)?? It's hard to see how sub 4 milers are less talented than someone who did not...asssuming they all tried to do it.

Sub is possible, but very difficult (obviously).

Just for another data point, my freshman PR was 4:40, and my ultimate PR was 4:10 for the mile and 3:51 for the 1500.

-Can't remember XC times from that year but I think I had about 17:00 3mi or just under.

-4:42 in 9th grade (1600)

-Basketball in the winter through 10th grade

-Very minimal mileage

-Didn't do any off-season training until summer/winter of senior year

-Not physically mature (tall though)

-3:59 lifetime best

Definitely possible. But when you look at something only a few hundred Americans have done, I'd say it's not statistically likely.

Your friend has the potential. You don't. Not with that "my friend" attitude.

well i was in a similar situation and did not make it to sub-4 but was close. there are way too many factors to determine, but yes, because technically speaking everybody has sub-4 potential.

depends a heck of a lot on his physical maturity and other factors. I know of a 4:40-ish freshman who ran 4:01 as a senior and a 4:40ish freshman who ran 4:27 as a senior.

If he drops the winter sport and trains his butt off and doesn't get injured, he has a chance! I have a friend who went from 4:38 his frosh year to 4:10 his senior year of high school. Hard work can get you anywhere!

it depends.

do you wanna sub 4 next year or in ten years?

next year: no

ten years: maybe

talent doesnt equal sub 4 as time goes on.

training equals sub 4.

so get off your computer and run some 400m repeats.