No, 2:04:19. His race in Berlin was a perfect race and I do not see him ever running faster than it. It was one of those days where every single thing went perfectly and the kind of race you only have once in a lifetime.
No, 2:04:19. His race in Berlin was a perfect race and I do not see him ever running faster than it. It was one of those days where every single thing went perfectly and the kind of race you only have once in a lifetime.
hard to say, either of you could be right, you cant really be 100% sure its impossible to do though, its a maybe
Frankfurt is a faster course than berlin. makau will run 2:03 12. you are an idiot
Only an idiot would make such a prediction before finding out what the weather is doing....
It's going to be around 2 degrees celcius at race time - NO CHANCE the world record gets broken in those conditions.
sub2?
No way. It's snowing right now in Germany.
34 degrees at the start. 36 at the finish. windy. no precipitation in the forecast. was rain/snow today but roads are already drying and will not be a factor
but it was also windy last year for kipsang's 2:03:42
How does cold affect EPO supplementation?
since EPO has no effect on Africans born at altitude, you can safely assume it has a negative effect.
2:05:03 to be exact! One reason the WR will not fall is the uncondusive weather. The second is that the main pacer for both Makau and Kipsang from last year(Peter Kirui) is missing in action. None of those assigned pacing duties this year is capable of taking the leaders or Makau to 30km in a time between 1:27:38 and 1:27:49. And lastly, Makau has not raced any distance longer than 10 miles in more than seven months. In fact those who predict that he will DNF have a great chance of being right.
The Quenton Cassidamius wrote:
No, 2:04:19. His race in Berlin was a perfect race and I do not see him ever running faster than it. It was one of those days where every single thing went perfectly and the kind of race you only have once in a lifetime.
This is one of the more ridiculous statements I've read here recently.
Obviously many things have to align for a WR or any great race, but the chances of that are not as infinitesimally rare as people act with statements like "once in a lifetime" etc.
Weather: 5-10 Celsius (40s Fahrenheit) is not exactly rare in northern Europe in April or October. Sometimes it's windy. Sometimes it's not. Not much rain. If you sampled 30 days in Berlin, Frankfurt, Rotterdam around the time of their marathons, the majority would be excellent conditions for a marathon.
Pacing: There is currently no shortage of guys who can run WR marathon pace to 30km. No shortage. The issue is that many of them are legitimate contenders themselves and will need to be incentivized pretty well to run 2:55 pace for 30km in support of a record attempt when they could win a lot of next-tier races in 2:05-2:06. But that doesn't seem to be a problem lately, when you look at the phalanx of pacers in Berlin.
Once in a lifetime? BS.
Obviously, I'm leaving out all of the obvious factors that are internal to the athlete, but let's not make this more complicated than it really is. A guy is going for a PR.
saladbar,
was out running here today in 1 degrees (same as race tomorrow) and let me tell you it was f%$king miserable. Big difference between 1-2 degrees and 5-10 degrees. It would a remarkable performance to break 2.06 tomorrow.
BBBBBBBBBBBBBRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Si Ripsnitch wrote:
saladbar,
was out running here today in 1 degrees (same as race tomorrow) and let me tell you it was f%$king miserable. Big difference between 1-2 degrees and 5-10 degrees. It would a remarkable performance to break 2.06 tomorrow.
BBBBBBBBBBBBBRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
I'm with you there. I've done a marathon that was 1C at the start and 4C at the finish (30s F, for the non-metric people) - not ideal. (But better than 15+!)
I agree that if it's 1C at the start nobody should expect a WR. What I was getting at that perfect conditions aren't as incredibly rare as people act (even if it doesn't happen tomorrow).
Stay warm out there!
30s is really pretty good running weather. Maybe not ideal with respect to setting a world record. But excellent non the less. The notion that he has done over 10 miles is a plus too. Many times an athlete whose primary specialty is the marathon will chase the money and do too many marathons. Will Makau set a world record tomorrow? Probably not but 2:04 is certainly possible.
No, not happening. 2:04 mid/high ftw, battle between Makau, Worku, and Tsegay, with Makau winning, approximately 1 minute off WR and Worku getting a sub-2:05 PR.
A livestream of the Frankfurt Marathon will available here:
The race starts at 10 a.m. local time.
Race appears to be at 4am ET.
I've changed the name of this thread to make it the official thread.
I just looked at an updated weather forecast.
The weather forecast is like 32 at the start and 34 at the finish with low winds of 5mph. So great winds but maybe a little chilly for a WR?
No chance since he's distracted by answering drug allegations.
Yes, 2:03:28
Frankfurt is only 5 hours ahed of east coast time this week because we don't "fall back" until next week. That means the race starts at 5, not 4.