Update to my original post, because I want those researching training plans to have one more data point:
1) Pfitzinger 18/55
2) 3:09:43
3) Although I hit all the times on my training runs and felt like I had a shot at a sub-3 this past weekend, I crashed and burned spectacularly after about 30k. I ran at a 6:50, 6:51, and 6:52 pace for the first, second, and third 10ks, respectively, but by mile 19 I completely ran out of fuel. It was a death march to the finish after that.
I think I carbo-loaded pretty well in the days before the race, and I consumed plenty of Gatorade and a packet of those sports beans things along the way, so I don't think this was a typical episode of running out of glycogen and hitting the wall. Instead, as a poster above mentioned, for some people 55 mpw just isn't enough to get under sub-3. I am one of those people.
Naturally, the plan itself may have gotten me to my goal under different circumstances. There were several possible contributing factors which might have contributed to my poor showing. This is not to make excuses for my time; rather, for anyone evaluating potential marathon training plans, I want to make it clear that there were other factors at play:
a. I jumped into the plan 13 weeks out from the marathon. I had a tough time deciding whether to just hop on board the 18/55 or do the 12/55; perhaps the latter would have been more appropriate.
b. I didn't have a big base going into the program. An injury in the spring kept me from running for a month, and after that I logged around 30 mpw until about 18 weeks out from the race, when I started putting in around 40. But these were relatively unstructured miles.
c. I missed an entire week of running three weeks out from the race. This was approximately the first week of the taper and included a tune-up race, a 16-mile run, and a(n abbreviated) V02 max session, as well as a couple easy runs.
d. I had a persistant cold for 8 days before the race. Although I felt mostly better on race day and I don't think my cold affected me during the race itself, it may have left me less than perfectly rested going into it.
e. It was really windy for several long stretches of the race, which certainly slowed me down, and it was a little warm. Then again, conditions are rarely ideal.
All in all, I am confident that I could have finished in around 3:05 if I had gone out with that as my goal. But by the time it was evident that I wasn't going to make it in under 3:00, it was far too late. I was just dead.
Next year: more miles and/or a more robust base before starting a structured training plan. I still improved immensely because of my training, and I would still strongly recommend Pfitzinger's 18/55 plan. But whether the plan itself didn't have enough mileage, or whether some of the factors listed above had an impact, it just didn't get me to my goal this time around.