Would Haile have won the 2008 Olympic Marathon if he had run it?

not first

He didn't run it because he didn't have to run through pollution for 26.2 miles.

If he ran the marathon, I think he may have won.

But it would have been a great battle.

ian edwards wrote:

He didn't run it because he didn't have to run through pollution for 26.2 miles.

If he ran the marathon, I think he may have won.

But it would have been a great battle.

really? wanjiru only ran what most believe to be the greatest marathon ever run.

For me...at the time, Wanjiru was unbeatable.

I know, I know.

But Wanjiru wasn't a world record holder.

bekele is the world record holder in the 10k....how did that work out for him this past summer in a little event known as the olympics???

manbearpig wrote:

bekele is the world record holder in the 10k....how did that work out for him this past summer in a little event known as the olympics???

Bekele was out of shape/ recovering from injury.

Gebrsellassie was in peak shape.

ian edwards wrote:

I know, I know.

But Wanjiru wasn't a world record holder.

So doesn't matter in the marathon. Geb had no clue how to run a competitive marathon. Get some pacers through 30k then finish, whoope doo. Wanjiru was a fierce competitor, would have destroyed Geb.

ian edwards wrote:

manbearpig wrote:

bekele is the world record holder in the 10k....how did that work out for him this past summer in a little event known as the olympics???

Bekele was out of shape/ recovering from injury.

Gebrsellassie was in peak shape.

jesus h chirst....out of shape and recovering? still in denial?

and geb wasnt in peak shape in 2008. what years were it that geb set world records in the 5000m and 10000m? pretty sure that would be geb at his all time peak.

Geb set a marathon world record in 2008.

You are an idiot.

Go to sleep.

ian edwards wrote:

I know, I know.

But Wanjiru wasn't a world record holder.

Not in the marathon.

Samuel "58:33" Wanjiru was not going to be beaten that day.

The Master Troll wrote:

So this begs the question: if Haile had run the Olympic Marathon in 2008, how would he have done?

That isn't what "begging the question" means.

I think Haile would have put on a great show but I still think Wanjiru would have won. He destroyed the field with his constant bursts...

Odds are good that he would've dnf'd, which is usually what happened to him when he had stiff competition in marathons at that stage of his career. If he could've held on, there's no chance he would've beaten Wanjiru. Maybe he could've grabbed a lower medal though.

Raptured wrote:

Odds are good that he would've dnf'd, which is usually what happened to him when he had stiff competition in marathons at that stage of his career. If he could've held on, there's no chance he would've beaten Wanjiru. Maybe he could've grabbed a lower medal though.

Agree with this.

Raptured wrote:

Odds are good that he would've dnf'd, which is usually what happened to him when he had stiff competition in marathons at that stage of his career. If he could've held on, there's no chance he would've beaten Wanjiru.

Correct.

This would have been a guaranteed DNF like every other "major clash" he has ever been hyped for in the marathon. When everyone else was dropped by Wanjiru's surge, Geb would have stepped off the course clutching either his stomach or his back while thinking up his excuse for the press conference.

Maybe he'd have had a chance if the Ethiopian team had paced him to 35km to simulate the conditions of his only successful marathons? Somehow I don't see Kebede and Merga going out like that, though.

Wanjiru was unbeatable that day. Geb has at all times been beatable in unpaced marathons. There's the answer to the OP's question.

of more interest is how close sammy couda run the kennster over 10k

he ran 26'41 off wild +ve splits as a raw 18y ole ( 13'12/13'29 )

he was probably worth 26'30 - 26'35 right there & then at even pace

3y later & immensely stronger, that 26'30 - 26'35 cannot fail to have been significantly faster ( he stopped running track because the turns caused him achilles tendinitis, so he had to move to the roads )

as for the M, geb traditionally had best 10k speed of any guy in the field which he built on for the M

i don't believe in any way or form geb had faster 10k speed than sammy in '08

Obviously we don't know. Apparently the pollution on the day turned out to be not nearly as bad as people had worried, so there's a good chance Haile could have run the race without significant breathing issues.

Clearly he was in great shape at that time - he broke the world record in September. Would he have coped with Wanjiru's tactics? Who knows. The shame is that he didn't run it. I bet he regrets it now...

Raptured wrote:

Odds are good that he would've dnf'd, which is usually what happened to him when he had stiff competition in marathons at that stage of his career...

Is that so? Isn't the only marathon he DNF'd in prior to that was London 2007?

He was in the marathon form of his life around then. Sept '07: 2:04 (WR), Jan '08: 2:04, Sept '08: 2:03 (WR), Jan '09: 2:05, Sept '09 2:06, Jan '10: 2:06. All first place.

He DNF'd New York in 2010, but that was more than two years after the Olympics.