I am running first marathon in a few weeks, I have put in a decent build up of 60-75 mpw for last 6 months, PRS are 4:45 mile, 16:40 5k, 34:50 10k, and half pr sucks but is a year old of 1:21. All other PRs are current from this year.
Based off my last workout of avg. 6:15-20 for 10 mile tempo,what do you think I am capbable of, the pace felt effortless and last mile ran 5:30...
Am I crazy to think I can come through half at half PR pace based off workouts?
You'll pay dearly if you do. This being your first marathon, something slower than your 1/2 PR (even if you think you are in much better shape)makes more sense. You'd probably be hard pressed to hold 6:20 pace for 26.2.
Here's my two cents:
sub 2:40 is highly unlikely: 10% chance of success, 90% chance of a blow up and 3hr plus finish.
2:42 - 2:44: 50% chance, 30% chance of a blow up and 3hr plus finish, 20% chance of a slow fade to 2:55.
2:45 - 2:47: 70% chance, 20% chance of a slow fade to a time in the 2:50s, 10% chance of a big blow up.
sub 2:50 is in the bag unless you get sick or something.
All that assumes a reasonable course and good conditions.
2:52
2:48 if you run evenly.
2:57 if you go for 2:40.
You could probably come through the half-way point at half-marathon PR, and might even feel pretty strong at the half-way mark, however that may not be the best strategy. One option though is to view this as a chance to get 1) get a half marathon PR and 2) finish your first marathon. This is assuming there is clock midway and no net elevation drop in the first half. But if your goal is to get the fastest marathon time possible for you and to have pleasant feelings about your whole marathon experience this may not be the best method. Your 10K PR predicts a 2:40 but being your first marathon, I think you should aim for 2:50. Good luck! Keep us in the loop.
*stipe wrote:
2:48 if you run evenly.
2:57 if you go for 2:40.
+1. Go out in 1:23-1:24.
I would shoot for 1:22-23 for the first half. If you are feeling good w/ 10mi to go, then go for it. You could set a half PR in the second half!