Wilson Kipketer: A 1:38 800 Is possible Within 4 Years

Obviously Kipketer's god thinks its possible.

Isn't it plausible that diminishing returns do not apply as much to race with such significant positive splits?

I guess he is talking about the 18 year-olds at 1:42.5 and better:

Nijel Amos, Tim Kitum and Mohamed Aman

That's some fast, young talent.

Still, Rudisha has more than half of the top-20 times ever run in the event, and only Amos (1:41.73) and Kaki (1:42.31) have cracked the top-20 marks in this century. The gap between 1:42.xx and sub-1:40 may be greater than a lot of people think.

Still, Rudisha has more than half of the top-20 times ever run in the event, and only Amos (1:41.73) and Kaki (1:42.31) have cracked the top-20 marks in this century. The gap between 1:42.xx and sub-1:40 may be greater than a lot of people think.

Kipketer has been smoking crack. That's 2 seconds. The 800 WR doesn't drop by 2 seconds in 10 years.

If this line of reasonig were true the record would have dropped shortly after Coe set it. A whole bunch of people were 25 or under in '81.

Unless Kipketer knows something we don't know, i.e. there is a new undetectable PED doing the rounds, like the EPO of the late 90's, then there is no chance of any of these guys running 1:38 in 4 years. I don't expect anyone to even break 1:40.

The 800m has progressed less than most events in the last 30 years, despite it being one of the most widely raced distance, and this is because they have reached pretty much what is the limit. In real terms ( improvements in training, tracks, spikes, etc)it's hardly moved on at all since Coe's 1:41.7 in 81.

Love Kipketer but I'm not sure what basis he makes this proclamation on.

Let's work backwards from even a sub 1.40 - say 1.39.9

Final 200 26.3? (at best???) - this is well faster than what Rudisha has managed to close in off an even slower pace in his WR's - example 26.6 in London.

So that means 600m in 1.13.6 - the current WR for 600m is 1.12.81

Third 200m - 25.0 - the toughest quarter segment of the race. Rudisha was able to manage this in London however this was off 49.3 at the bell. Is it possible to maintain this of a....

48.6 second first 400m? The only race we have seen in this territory was Kipketer when he ran 48.4 chasing Joseph Tengelei's ludicrous 48.10 in Zürich '98 - that ended up at 1.41.24

So in my mind a 1.39.9 looks something like:

24.0

48.6 (24.6)

1.13.6 (25.0)

1.39.9 (26.3)

Look imposing enough? How you squeeze another 1.0 seconds out of those splits without some incredible chemicals I'm afraid, (sorry Wilson), is well beyond me.

LetsRun.com wrote:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201209190184.html

[quote]The Star wrote that Kipekter said:

"The athletes who ran in the 800m at the London Olympic Games are all under 25 years and this means they can still bring the record down to 1.38 in the next four years,"

Personally, we can fathom a 1:39 but 1:38??? My god.

I think 1:39:XX ( high) based on Rudisha breaking 1:41 basically solo. It will take perfect conditions and pacing ( great pacers that Rudisha never has). I don't see a 1:38 in this generation.

That's a bit fast. I would be surprised if it went under 1:40.5. As big of a deal as Rudisha is, he has only taken .2 off Wilson's time in 3 record breaking performances.

obviously there is some new ped in 800m

we got 18 year olds coming out of no where with

fast times.

whatever ped seems best suited for high lactate build up

of 800m.

got to be this gw-50 / aicar combo that hearing about

or what else could be,the times in 800m were proped up wit epo

all through 1990,s and near end of 2000,s and now running even faster times without as much of it and more controls on hematrocrits as in biological passport .

as for breaking such times if they know something we dont

that even stronger ppar delta modulator on the way ,then might be .

has anybody tried gw-501516 ,yet as of start of 2012 can easily source on various websites .

lets see if wariner gets his hands on it ,if any truth that moving up .

Si Ripsnitch wrote:

Love Kipketer but I'm not sure what basis he makes this proclamation on.

He's been training in secret and is planning to break the record in the 2016 Olympics.

Si Ripsnitch wrote:

How you squeeze another 1.0 seconds out of those splits without some incredible chemicals I'm afraid, (sorry Wilson), is well beyond me.

There's one way it could be done, by building (and legalizing) banked outdoor tracks, but that would bury pretty much all the records.

agreed, the news drugs are going to shatter all the records from 100m to 800m within the next 5 years.

rudy will go well below 1'40 & likes of nigel probably not far behind if they actually put in some proper weight-training for the event

the africans run this off natural endurance primarily & virtually no strength work ( = weight-training )

they will lose some endurance concentrating more on weights, but the trade-off is likely to be likely in favour of a much faster overall time

you here plenty about rudy's sessions but nothing about his weights sessions - how much leg press/bench/shoulder-press, etc

canova himself said maloofi does lot of weights, which is obvious from his physique

sub-saharan africans have run this event for past 40y+ off just endurance & whatever natural speed they've got with it

if they ever incorporate hard weights into their training, not only will likes of rudy go well below 1'40, but the plethora of mid/high-1'42 guys will go nearer 1'41.0 & likes of nigel, well below

their overall training seems to have changed little since kiprugut's day 42y ago...

Utter nonsense. This is 2012 not the late 60's.

Kipketer, Rudisha, Kaki and many other top 800 guys from the past 20 years have been/are trained by European and African coaches who will be fully aware of the use/benefits of weights for middle distance runners. Makhloufi and Kaki are trained by the same guy. Why would he encourage one to do weights and not the other? If it was simply down to incorporating weights into their training then all 800 guys would be doing it. It has been shown in the past that some guys benefit from it and some have not. The whole point of a coach is finding the best training types and methods that work for that individual athlete.

You make it sound like an African has never seen a gym before! Do you really think Rudisha's coach hasn't at least looked into incorporating weights into his training, especially given his appreciation of Coe and apparently being a knowledgeable historian of the event? For all we know he already does use some kind of weights in his regime.

Your vision of all these naturally gifted and ignorant African athletes running free around the natural terrain where they live, without a clue as to how talented they are, is both fantasy and extremely patronizing to all african athletes.

Throughout the EPO era only one man broke 1:42. The event, one of the most contested of all t&f events, has hardly moved on at all since 1981, despite advances in tracks, training, etc. To suggest that a whole "plethora of mid/high 1:42 guys will go" to 1:41.0 in the next few years is ludicrous.

If it happens it will only be through the introduction of another undetectable PED as mentioned elsewhere on this thread, and certainly not down to Africans picking up weights!

evidence rudy is severely underweight

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/discussion/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=39762

jlt, his manager, said he was 1.88 & 71kg the year he went 1'41.01wr

this is a BMI of

20.08

which for an adult is bordering on anorexic ( normal 20 - 25 )

he is at least 10 pounds underweight

10 pounds of propulsive muscle underweight

ventolin^3 wrote:

evidence rudy is severely underweight

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/discussion/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=39762

jlt, his manager, said he was 1.88 & 71kg the year he went 1'41.01wr

this is a BMI of

20.08

which for an adult is bordering on anorexic ( normal 20 - 25 )

he is at least 10 pounds underweight

10 pounds of propulsive muscle underweight

Call yourself a doctor! A normal BMI is in the range of 18.5 and 25. So 20 is fine.

Coe did loads of weights and his BMI was much lower.

Height 1.77, weight 58kg. Mo Farah's is probably lower still.

You can have muscles from weights and still be light. And weights won't make every 800 runner faster.