Can an average person be trained to run a 15:30 5k?
Can an average person be trained to run a 15:30 5k?
lol nope
Can the average person ask this question for the 100th time?
High School Joe wrote:
Can an average person be trained to run a 15:30 5k?
Umm, no. Given the Olympic Trails qualifying standard for women is 15:35 you have pretty much half the population who, even under the best of circumstances, won't be able to hit 15:30. (Well one half less a few hundred). The milesplit gold standard for high school boys happens to be 15:30. Last year 45 boys made that standard - all of them very serious runners with more than a teaspoon full of gene's working in their favor. 16:30? Maybe.
The average male could absolutely run a 15:30 with proper supplementation and 2 years of training.
If you are male, not overweight to begin with, not impaired with physical ailments, and put in four to six years of good healthy training...yes.
If you are the average human...no
No. That is just silly.
Me and my group of running friends speculated about the 17 min 5k over 25 years ago. My speculation was NO for for 17! And certainly not for 15:30. Now I suspect that 18 might be beyond many normal people?
Few people (myself included) are able to put in four to six years of good, consistent training. Durability is a needed ingredient for those not in the top 0.1% of natural ability.
Average person, no.
But I'd say any male over 18 could, provided they could:
A. Run 5K without stopping
B. Have a BMI of around 23 or less
C. Run 400m in around 60 seconds in about 2-3 years of training
It may take 4+ years, but definitely doable.
the problem here is the average letsrunner has no idea what average is
I bet the average letsrunner couldn't run 15:30, even if you take out dudes over 30 and kids under 18.
Lenny Leonard wrote:
Average person, no.
But I'd say any male over 18 could, provided they could:
A. Run 5K without stopping
B. Have a BMI of around 23 or less
C. Run 400m in around 60 seconds in about 2-3 years of training
It may take 4+ years, but definitely doable.
I think you severely underestimate the number of people, even within those restricted categories, who would succumb to injury before they could put in the training mileage necessary to get to 15:30 on mediocre natural foot speed.
go look at some race results on athlinks.com. i would ghuess that more than 95% of 5k races dont have a single person that runs a 15:30.
obviously not every runner trains optimally, but there are a lot of runners who train pretty hard and never get anywhere near that time.
of course. Everyone knows the average runner can run sub 13 min for 5k
Lenny Leonard wrote:
Average person, no.
But I'd say any male over 18 could, provided they could:
A. Run 5K without stopping
B. Have a BMI of around 23 or less
C. Run 400m in around 60 seconds in about 2-3 years of training
It may take 4+ years, but definitely doable.
If it takes them 2-3 years of training to get to 60 seconds in the 400m, they would never ever get to 15:30. I got to sub-60 in 1 month, got to sub-54 in 1 year, did lots of distance running for years and years running plenty of 5Ks, have low body fat (~10%) and wouldn't have a prayer of hitting that time (my best is a minute over that). I think you're confusing the meaning of average even when you limit it to your A, B, and C categories. It's a much smaller group that is even capable of 15:30.
Nope. Not a chance.
I was always one of the fastest, if not the fastest, kids on all of my sports teams growing up. Far faster than average, you might say.
Over the last 6 years (Im 26) I have put in ok training, not great training (anywhere between 45-60 miles per week) and I have run between 16:00-16:15 a handful of times, and only under 16 once.
I know that I am slow...but I can't count how many times I was in "the best shape of my life" and ready to go well under 16, to come up short and run a 16:08 or something. There is a lot more to it than training. Im not saying I am the most gifted, but I know I was more gifted than 95% of the kids I played soccer, basketball, track etc..with.
2012xxx wrote:
Lenny Leonard wrote:Average person, no.
But I'd say any male over 18 could, provided they could:
A. Run 5K without stopping
B. Have a BMI of around 23 or less
C. Run 400m in around 60 seconds in about 2-3 years of training
It may take 4+ years, but definitely doable.
If it takes them 2-3 years of training to get to 60 seconds in the 400m, they would never ever get to 15:30. I got to sub-60 in 1 month, got to sub-54 in 1 year, did lots of distance running for years and years running plenty of 5Ks, have low body fat (~10%) and wouldn't have a prayer of hitting that time (my best is a minute over that). I think you're confusing the meaning of average even when you limit it to your A, B, and C categories. It's a much smaller group that is even capable of 15:30.
hahaha lol. i was already running 15:30 before i could break 60 for a quarter. ended up peaking at 56ish and 14:15. 400 speed is largely unimportant as long as youre not running like a 68s 400
the average Tarahumura or Kenya Masai male would have a good shot at training and running a 15:30 5k.
The average American person is about in 45 to 60 minutes shape and would need some consistent training to break 30.
Wouldn't have a prayer? I believe in you!
I honestly think that the leg strength component of footspeed is the biggest limiting factor. If you can run sub-54 then it is not much of a stretch to make 75 second quarters feel comfortable. Especially when we are talking in terms of years, not months, of training.
I know these debates are always tricky because the average person is a pretty sad sight. But if you train SPECIFICALLY for a 5K, I think it's a realistic goal for someone who meets the criteria I listed. The trouble is, most people I know training for "distance" just do lots of slow miles and then occasionally throw in some vO2MAX intervals without laying the base. Either that, or they train for a half or full marathon and then jump in a 5K and think that it's the best they could ever do.
Training for a 5000m race and training for a 42200m race are not as similar as the average person believes.