Farah versus Gebremeskel in a time trial 5000; who wins and how fast?

i pick farah, i guess they will be trying to run a fast 5000 in zurich, lagat tweeted he is running zurich yesterday, i believe rupp and lomong will too as zurich is about as big as a meet gets with its budget, known as the one day olympics.

Gebremeskel but not by much

they'll end up jogging and farah will win in the last two laps

The rabbit wins in 13:20

Farah 2nd in 13:31.24, Gebremeskel 3rd, also in 13:31.24.

So the question really amounts to: "does Gebremeskel have a better time-trialling ability than Farah?"

It's possible but unlikely. Farah was victorious in what was essentially a 3k race and is also the Olympic champion over 10,000m. It's certainly possible he could lose but it is unlikely.

Any predictions for time? I think ventolin said around 12:40 a few weeks ago. I would say near the same, but just based on Gebremeskel running 12:46 looking like had more left and Farah being, in my opinion, a little better.

I would like to see rabbits take them out at 12:40 pace through two miles or so. I don't think Farah could beat him. I think Farah and Rupp just have great race tactics. That explains part of their success. They're obviously both in great shape, but I don't think Farah could run in the mid- to low 12:40s. I'd say he's right around 12:48 to 12:50 at best. But who knows. I could be completely wrong.

Sleeping Policeman wrote:

It's possible but unlikely. Farah was victorious in what was essentially a 3k race and is also the Olympic champion over 10,000m. It's certainly possible he could lose but it is unlikely.

What does being Olympic 10,000m champion have to do with which one can run a faster 5k? The 10,000m he won was in 27:30.

It is hard for me to imagine Farah maxing out at 12:50 after how easily he handled a group of sub 12:50 runners in London.

Predictor wrote:

It is hard for me to imagine Farah maxing out at 12:50 after how easily he handled a group of sub 12:50 runners in London.

He didn't handle them in a way that is relevant to this discussion. He beat everyone by running sit and kick races. That almost let Cam Levins be a factor. Ridiculous.

does Dejen race with one shoe or two.....so far he's 1 - 0 when racing in just one shoe

just sayin'

they tested in London. sub-12:50 then means very little.

jnkjgiuhiughi wrote:

He didn't handle them in a way that is relevant to this discussion. He beat everyone by running sit and kick races. That almost let Cam Levins be a factor. Ridiculous.

but if "they" (the sub-12:50 crew) are in such better shape than Farah, they should have been less taxed by the first 11.5 laps and had more left in the tank than Mo for the last lap kick, right? (this is assuming their 400m prs are comparable/equal to Mo's, which we have no data on)

economy kills wrote:

jnkjgiuhiughi wrote:

He didn't handle them in a way that is relevant to this discussion. He beat everyone by running sit and kick races. That almost let Cam Levins be a factor. Ridiculous.

but if "they" (the sub-12:50 crew) are in such better shape than Farah, they should have been less taxed by the first 11.5 laps and had more left in the tank than Mo for the last lap kick, right? (this is assuming their 400m prs are comparable/equal to Mo's, which we have no data on)

The pace of the 10k was their tempo run pace or slower, so the pace didn't remove anyone's kicks. It was so slow that it was equally UNtaxing on everyone (everyone with a sub 27 10k ability). I.e., the fastest absolute sprinter was going to win.

I dont recall how slow the 5k was, but i know that it was similarly slow. I would then assume that Farah is a faster sprinter than the guys he beat. Apparently, faster than Lagat (at this age) also.

I'm not sure why you would assume that they would all have the same 400m prs. But if they did somehow, then the faster 5k person would have won in any scenario.

jnkjgiuhiughi wrote:

Predictor wrote:

It is hard for me to imagine Farah maxing out at 12:50 after how easily he handled a group of sub 12:50 runners in London.

He didn't handle them in a way that is relevant to this discussion. He beat everyone by running sit and kick races. That almost let Cam Levins be a factor. Ridiculous.

that's an absurd argument. to say farah winning 10k gold was almost letting levins be a factor is like saying christian smith winning the indoor mile a few years ago is almost letting stephen pfeiffer be a factor. or like saying any other very talented runner winning a sit and kick race is giving a less talented runner a chance to be factor. just because the pack is bigger with a lap to go in a slow race DOES NOT mean it's equal. farah has great sprinting speed but the fact is he's won 3 of the last 4 international championship 5k/10k races. he is the man right now. no questions asked. when someone beats him, in any kind of race, questions can be asked.

gebremeskel's 5k speed is irrelevant to a comparison with farah. my opinion would be that farah could run 12:44 range right now, gebremeskel a little faster. but the ethiopian would almost never win in a race. 8/10 times farah wins - superior tactics and better finishing speed. once youre at that level the x-factor suddenly matters.

also, nothing is absolute. rupp beat lagat, then bekeles, then got 7th in the 5k. running is fickle and performances ebba nd flow constantly. we may never see double champ farah again or we could see him for 6 more years. who knows.

Farah in about 12:44

Farah no faster 12:44. In a fast race I also think Rupp can run low 12:50s.

If the olympic race was so slow that it came down to who has the PR in the 400m, why didn't the 1500m bronze medalist do better? Why did Rupp, who we have seen finish in 52, look like he was running backwards? Clearly, the last 5 laps of the race were tiring for most of the runners, including several sub-12:50 runners.

I cannot imagine Mo getting 7th at Paris this year, which is where just 12:50 would have put him.

My biggest question about both Mo and Gebremeskel is if they have the mental strength to push the pace solo for an extended drive at the end of the race, which is what would be needed to run a super fast time. So far, neither has done this. You could argue Mo hasn't needed to, but he will if he wants a fast time. Gebremeskel I have more doubts about, as this may have been his best chance in the olympics but he didn't do this there.

You guys are all wrong. Gebremeskel is better than Farah in both finishing speed and time-trialing. Remember his kick off of a super fast pace in Paris this year? I doubt Farah could have finished faster than him had he been there. The reason why he lost to Farah in London is that he failed tactically, he got boxed at the bell and Farah made a gap at that moment. If he had followed him all the time he would have outkicked him at the home stretch.