A Numbers Argument That Men's U.S. Distance Running Has Arrived

What about scoring it like a track meet? 10-8-6-4-2-1

I admit I'm too lazy to go through the events and score it but I wondered how it would come out for the 800 and up and for the whole meet.

Here's a couple of numbers to refute that. 13:41 and 27:30.

And if it were scored like a cross country race, it would have been run like a cross country race and won from the front, as cross country races generally are.

your numbers are way off the las time I saw we graded cross country with the whole team meaning you have to add in our 2nd and 3rd guys in each race. And yes I am too lazy to add it up for you.

The US is clearly the third strongest nation when assessed across all distance events now (on the male side of things) in relation to overall talent pool.

Like it or not you are nowhere near to Kenya in terms of depth.

Ethiopians are vastly superior at the upper-end of the track events and haven't seemed to put as much focus in anything below 5,000m. This is not meant to denigrate the outstanding achievements of Ritz, Rupp, Solinsky and Teg over the recent years.

The only other nation worth mentioning (reputation aside) in the same breath is Morocco.

Honourable mention to Britain but they are still totally outmatched.

I DID account for the 2nd place runners in each event. Beyond that, there were multiple events missing a third competitor from one or more of the three countries (i.e., third runner didn't qualify for the finals), so the numbers became less tangible. Remember, Ethiopia didn't even have a SECOND runner qualify in the 800m or 1500m.

I have no delusions of grandeur. I am well aware that Kenya is far and away the powerhouse running nation of the world, with Ethiopia a close second.

My numbers merely aimed to illustrate that at the top, at these Olympics, America's best runners competed admirably against the best runners on the planet. Sure Kenya got five medals while the U.S. and Ethiopia each got two, but the U.S. was competitive in every event, just missing three more medals in the 800, 1500, and 5000. Hell, we even had a competitive pair of Americans in the steeplechase!

Growing up (I am 34), I can remember when a competitive American distance runner was the outlier (i.e., Kennedy, Williams, Webb, etc.). Even those outliers had little real chance of medalling. Now our best are competitive across the board. Some may view the performances of certain U.S. runners in these Olympics as disappointing - I am encouraged by the depth of our team that gives rise to higher expectations.

Talented Africans have moved to the marathon, but they wouldn't destroy us. They for the most part don't have good speed, which is why they moved up in the first place.

When will Americans finally realize that concentrating on long distances is foolish and irrational? They don't have the body type for these events. They may be sufficiently lean (like all West Eiropeans), but they are too tall already. They may produce few medal winners, but the overall effect won't be worthy of the effort. If they concentrated on the 400-1500 m range, it would be much more productive.

kozz wrote:

Here's a couple of numbers to refute that. 13:41 and 27:30.

And if it were scored like a cross country race, it would have been run like a cross country race and won from the front, as cross country races generally are.

I have definitely seen cross country races won by guys who didn't lead until the last mile (if not later).

I'm gonna do this a couple ways because of my own curiosity and boredom. First, all men's track distance events scored like a track meet. I'm taking runn's word that that's how you score a track meet because I never paid attention myself.

800: Kenya-10, Botswana-8, Kenya-6, US-4, US-2, Ethiopia-1

1500: Algeria-10, US-8, Morocco-6, US-4, Norway-2, Ethiopia-1

5000: GB-10, Ethiopia-8, Kenya-6, US-4, Kenya-2, Morocco-1

10000: GB-10, US-8, Ethiopia-6, Ethiopia-4, Kenya-2, Eritrea-1

Steeple: Kenya-10, France-8, Kenya-6, Ethiopia-4, Kenya-2, US-1

Scores: Kenya-43, US-31, Ethiopia-24, Great Britain-20, Algeria-10, Botswana-8, France-8, Morocco-7, Eritrea-1

Now what I'm going to do is score each event like a cross country meet(for the sake of time, I'm only doing Ethiopia, Kenya, and US). If a runner didn't make it to the final or semifinal then their place among the nonqualifiers in their heat is added to the number of runners in the final or semifinals to get their score. Hopefully that makes sense but if someone has a better way of scoring the nonqualifiers then let me know. Also, if someone is DNF in the final then they will just be added on one place below the last finisher. Yet another thing, in the case of someone like Ethiopia who qualify only one person for an event, 2 imaginary runners will be tacked on behind the entire field in order to show the lack of depth.

Kenya-

800: 1, 3, 9

1500: 7, 11, 12

Steeple: 1, 3, 5

5k: 3, 5, 18

10k: 5, 12, 27

Kenya total: 122

US-

800: 4, 5, 26

1500: 2, 4, 16

Steeple: 6, 8, 28

5k: 4, 6, 16

10k: 2, 13, 19

US total: 159

Ethiopia-

800: 6, 57, 58

1500: 6, 27, 28

Steeple: 4, 12, 38

5k: 2, 11, 12

10k: 3, 4, 8

Ethiopia total: 276

It seems that where Kenya still beats the United States is in the third man. We kept having two perform very well and then a third way back whereas Kenya might have been out of the medals but they had a tight grouping. Also, as you can see, scoring distance overall absolutely kills Ethiopia. They have great scores in the 5 and 10 but lack any real depth in the middle distances. Of course, this scoring system overly punishes those countries who can't qualify multiple runners into the finals but I can't find a better way to score it if you're looking to demonstrate depth.

its track. you score it like a track meet. Why not try scoring it like archery?

Now all events scored like a track meet to see the best overall men's track country.

100: Jamaica-10, Jamaica-8, US-6, US-4, US-2, Netherlands-1

200: Jamaica-10, Jamaica-8, Jamaica-6, US-4, Netherlands-2, France-1

400: Grenada-10, Dominican Republic-8, Trinidad&Tobago-6, Bahamas-4, Belgium-2, Belgium-1

800: Kenya-10, Botswana-8, Kenya-6, US-4, US-2, Ethiopia-1

1500: Algeria-10, US-8, Morocco-6, US-4, Norway-2, Ethiopia-1

5000: GB-10, Ethiopia-8, Kenya-6, US-4, Morocco-2, US-1

10000: GB-10, US-8, Ethiopia-6, Ethiopia-4, Kenya-2, Eritrea-1

110H: US-10, US-8, Jamaica-6, GB-4, Barbados-2, Cuba-1

400H: Dominican Republic: 10, US-8, Puerto Rico-6, GB-4, US-2, Trinidad&Tobago-1

Steeple: Kenya-10, France-8, Kenya-6, Ethiopia-4, Kenya-2, US-1

4x100: Jamaica-10, US-8, Trinidad&Tobago-6, France-4, Japan-2, Netherlands-1

4x400: Bahamas-10, US-8, Trinidad&Tobago-6, GB-4, Russia-2, Belgium-1

High Jump: Russia-10, US-8, Canada-6, GB-4, Qatar-2, US-1

Pole Vault: France-10, Germany-8, Germany-6, Russia-4, GB-2, Russia-1

Triple Jump: US-10, US-8, Italy-6, Italy-4, Bahamas-2, France-1

Shot put: Poland-10, Germany-8, US-6, US-4, Canada-2, Argentina-1

Discus: Germany-10, Iran-8, Estonia-6, Lithuania-4, Poland-2, Germany-1

Hammer: Hungary-10, Slovenia-8, Japan-6, Ukraine-4, Russia-2, Czech Republic-1

Javelin: Trinidad&Tobago-10, Ukraine-8, Finland-6, Czech Republic-4, Finland-2, Norway-1

Decathlon-US-10, US-8, Cuba-6, Belgium-4, Canada-2, Germany-1

Total Scores:

US--147

Jamaica--58

Kenya--42

Great Britain--38

Germany--34

Trinidad&Tobago--29

Ethiopia--24

France--24

Russia--19

Dominican Republic--18

Bahamas--16

Ukraine--12

Poland--12

Canada--10

Italy--10

Hungary--10

Grenada--10

Algeria--10

Belgium--8

Botswana--8

Morocco--8

Japan--8

Finland--8

Iran--8

Slovenia--8

Cuba--7

Puerto Rico--6

Estonia--6

Czech Republic--5

Lithuania--4

Netherlands--4

Norway--3

Barbados--2

Qatar--2

Eritrea--1

Argentina--1

You fools, track is scored 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1

My Name Is Judge wrote:

You fools, track is scored 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1

Screw it, I'm not doing it again.

Disasterous Games for the Ethio men, so far.

And thanks to Meb, another competitive American performance! Just like the other events, Kenya the class of the field, US second, Ethiopia well back.

Again, I am well aware that the true depth in Kenyan and Ethiopian distance running outclasses the U.S., but our best fared very well against their best.