Olympic mens 100m

I'm not going to predict any times, as the weather will play havoc with the performances.

It is supposed to be 70 or below for the highs this weekend, with around a 50% chance of rain, and a SSW wind around 15 mph. Who knows how the wind will manifest at track level.

There is a weather system spinning toward Ireland right now, which will be affecting London this weekend; it is almost sure to rain at some point.

However, I think that the times will be exceptionally close among places 2-5. I think that Blake will be the clear winner.

I'll go:

Bolt

Blake

Gatlin

Gay

Powell

Collins

Bailey

Bledman

Lemaitre the last place alternate.

I'm very confident in Bolt. Not as much in the 200m but still confident. I'll happily eat humble pie if I'm wrong.

Lemaitre is runing only the 200.

Jasari22 wrote:

Lemaitre the last place alternate.

Nice list sprintgeezer. I had written off Gay a while back I must admit. I seriously thought that anytime he was going to run his body would just fall apart on the track. He has proven me wrong this summer. He has run 9.86, 9.99, a couple of 10 flats and even ran a curve on an extremely fast relay.

I doubted he would survive the trials and never thought he would run any races in Europe or on a relay. So glad he proved me wrong.

His start has not been good this summer but I also feel like he is not putting all of his effort in it to keep it easy on the body.

I think he is healthy and ready to roll given his summer.

[quote]Sprintgeezer wrote:

I'm not going to predict any times, as the weather will play havoc with the performances.

Odd.

In the past you have claimed to have predicted 100 meter times to the 1/100th of a second.

I guess it is safer to make your predictions after the fact

Bolt

Blake

Gay

Powell

Bledman

Gatlin

Bailey

Hyman

Potentially the best 100m race ever.

5 athletes that either have at least one Olympic Gold or World Championship Gold at 100m.

A sixth athlete that has broken the 100m WR a few times.

Asafa Powell has broken or tied the world record on 4 occassions.

Here are the last several 100m champions:

2011: Yohan Blake

2009: Usain Bolt

2008: Usain Bolt

2007: Tyson Gay

2005: Justin Gatlin

2004: Justin Gatlin

2003: Kim Collins

They are all in pretty good shape this year execpt Collins PR is 10 years old and he hasn't been under 10 since 2003.

After watching Powell's start at the trials I think Gay is not going to be able to beat him out for bronze. Powell looks to be in better shape than Gay so unless Gay's training has really turned around in the last few weeks I do not see him getting a medal. You are expecting too much out of Gay just because of what he has run in the past.

I just can't bet against a guy that has gone 9.58. I don't think Bolt will need a time that fast to win, but on the big stage, I think we could see something ridiculous if he absolutely had to pull it out. The 200m is where Bolt should be much more concerned in my opinion. I'm becoming more and more convinced that Gay will pull out a fast one too. I don't think he has enough in the tank though to make a serious push for Gold or Silver. I'm very confident that Bolt-Blake are going 1-2. I'll also put a range of times that I expect the runners to hit. Feel free to agree or disagree.

100m-

Bolt - 9.60-9.70

Blake - 9.68-9.75

Gay - 9.77-9.85

Powell - 9.78-9.90

Gatlin - 9.80-9.95

Everyone Else

200m

Bolt - 19.20-19.40

Blake - 19.30-19.50

Spearmon - 19.70-19.80

Everyone Else

That's a shame. Probably smart though. His 200m is a real medal chance.

When I see this I have to think the guy was still toying with people and leaving something in the tank for the 2012 Olympics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=By1JQFxfLMM

Jasari22-

Collins ahead of Bailey and Bledman!

That's balls. Do you think that Bailey and Bledman will flame, or that Collins will have the run of his life?

Smart of Lemaitre to bail from the 100, in which his medal chances would be astronomically low, to focus on the relay and 200, in which, with Dix and Gay not running, he has a realistic shot at bronze if he can re-create or improve on his 19.80

Gallagher,

It was in the 60m, not the 100m.

And I didn't "claim" to have done it, I actually DID it--got 2 of 3 exactly correct and the third off by .01, the evidence being right here on LRC.

Of course, indoor 60m predictions are much easier to make than outdoor 100m predictions.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

Smart of Lemaitre to bail from the 100, in which his medal chances would be astronomically low, to focus on the relay and 200, in which, with Dix and Gay not running, he has a realistic shot at bronze if he can re-create or improve on his 19.80

I agree that dropping the 100 was a good call. Seems like a common sense move but I wasn't sure that he would do it. It will really be interesting to see how he matches up with Spearmon, given the fact the two tend to run the 200m similarly with weak curves and with great closing speed down the stretch.

The 200m might turn out to have a little more depth than at first glance. There are several good runners in this field right around that 19 high 20 low mark. Blake and Bolt will likely be long gone though for Gold/Silver.

Ilemux coming in with Hyman!

And Bledman ahead of Gatlin!

Considering Gatlin has been up with Gay & Powell this year, do you think that he will under-perform this time?

Hyman! Awesome.

The Quenton Cassidamius wrote:

After watching Powell's start at the trials I think Gay is not going to be able to beat him out for bronze. Powell looks to be in better shape than Gay so unless Gay's training has really turned around in the last few weeks I do not see him getting a medal. You are expecting too much out of Gay just because of what he has run in the past.

I know what you mean, but I don't think you can discount the effects of training with a guy like Gay.

I think his best sprint this year was actually NYC, I thought it was beautiful. It was a 9.90 adjusted, if you believe in adjusted times. If he can lay that down with any increased fitness, he will go 9.80-9.85 adjusted.

Powell has shown already this year that he can go sub-9.90, the question is whether or not he has improved by that .05-.10 to get him to the same range. I would say, based on his championship performances, that he will improve, but not by as much as Gay will improve.

I think training will have a really big effect on Gay. For him, I think max speed is just a matter of memory, to remember what it feels like to get going that fast. The downside is that I don't see any effect from his alleged start training with Drummond--but in the past, Gay has shown that he can go 9.80-9.85 with a mediocre start, as long as his finish is incredible.

Don't know that I have a favorite or a pick to win the title but the odds certainly favor a Jamaican sweep.. the order for me being irrelevant.

That said.. I think a lot of you are underestimating just how quick this track is. Ennis ran a 12.54 this morning in the 100m hurdles.. her previous best in any championship setting? 12.93 in Berlin and 12.94 in Daegu last year. Now even if you factor in massive improvements in her training and performance and even the specter of PED's a 4 tenths of a second improvement is hardly to be scoffed at.

A world record at this Olympics is a certainty and I'm thinking that even the 2nd and 3rd placed finishers will run not just PR's but times fast enough to have been Olympic records just 4 years ago...

I don't see Gay managing to finish on the podium this year regardless of his comeback and Gatlin will have to be quite frankly an order of magnitude better than his best ever to even contend for a place.

BTW for those doubting Bolt's readiness... a fair few peolle have been quoted as saying "Bolt is back", "he's looking very good in training" etc etc.