Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40%

I beg to differ from RC, but to rank Kiprop ahead of Rupp does not hold up under the light of day. Rupp is thirteen seconds faster at 10,000, and would crush Kiprop at 1500 and 5000. We underestimate Rupp because he's an American, and we think the Africans must be better, but the only two Africans in the Olympics who have a faster PR than he does are Bekele and Tadesse, and there's no evidence Tadesse has the fitness to be a factor on Saturday. And as for Bekele, there's no evidence he's ready to run 26:30s, much less 26:30, something he hasn't done since 2008.

Montesquieu wrote:

as for Bekele, there's no evidence he's ready to run 26:30s, much less 26:30

Huh, he's run 12:55.

Double, add 40 seconds, and that's 26:30.

J.R. wrote:

Montesquieu wrote:

as for Bekele, there's no evidence he's ready to run 26:30s, much less 26:30

Huh, he's run 12:55.

Double, add 40 seconds, and that's 26:30.

Chris Solinsky PR 12:55.5. Double and add 40 seconds = 26:31.

Bekele PR 12:37. Double and add 40 seconds = 25:54.

Ummm...I think your method leaves a bit to be desired.

J.R. wrote:

Montesquieu wrote:

as for Bekele, there's no evidence he's ready to run 26:30s, much less 26:30

Huh, he's run 12:55.

Double, add 40 seconds, and that's 26:30.

You're supposed to double and add a minute. That gives 26:50 based on a 12:55 5k. However, Bekele is likely in better shape than he was in Paris when he ran 12:55, and also leans more toward the 10k. 26:30 is not out of the question, but I agree with Renato, if the race gets tactical he will lose over the last 800m to Mo Farah.

not.a.doc wrote:

J.R. wrote:

Huh, he's run 12:55.

Double, add 40 seconds, and that's 26:30.

Chris Solinsky PR 12:55.5. Double and add 40 seconds = 26:31.

Bekele PR 12:37. Double and add 40 seconds = 25:54.

Ummm...I think your method leaves a bit to be desired.

It's a method Canova described as being possible for a certain type of athlete. I think it is possible, but not necessarily for Kenenisa. However, what some people don't comprehend is that all this talk about the final finishing time misses the point a bit. It's a factor, but a bigger factor is that Kenenisa is the toughest one mentally. He will REFUSE TO LOSE. I've seen it in him before when everything is on the line. I believe this is it for him. This is everything and he knows there are doubters, but as long as he doesn't doubt, he will win. Kenenisa is the one who can suffer the most. Yeah, he is as talented as they come, but that is not what will get him this gold medal. Kenenisa can pay the price more than anybody in this field. Kenenisa likely could not win the 5000m, because his mental advantage might not be enough, but in this 10,000m, he is still mentally a man among boys. Yeah, he is shy, but what burns inside him cannot be taught. The man has more pride in him than the rest, and you will see it Saturday.

It's the Olympics so two things hold: PRs don't matter and expect the unexpected. Rupp could win or DNF. Who the F knows? Farrah? No idea. Can't wait to watch - of course I'm sure I'll miss the finish because of some dumb ass car bungee jumping.

SPMBLNPF wrote:

Kenenisa is the toughest one mentally. He will REFUSE TO LOSE. I've seen it in him before when everything is on the line.

Um, like when he DNFed world cross? That time?

You are perhaps the dumbest poster on letsrun today.

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

SPMBLNPF wrote:

Kenenisa is the toughest one mentally. He will REFUSE TO LOSE. I've seen it in him before when everything is on the line.

Um, like when he DNFed world cross? That time?

You are perhaps the dumbest poster on letsrun today.

When Kenenisa is physically capable of winning, he wins. That is the greatest compliment you can give a competitor, and something you likely cannot relate to for palpable reasons.

SPMBLNPF wrote:

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

Um, like when he DNFed world cross? That time?

You are perhaps the dumbest poster on letsrun today.

When Kenenisa is physically capable of winning, he wins. That is the greatest compliment you can give a competitor, and something you likely cannot relate to for palpable reasons.

Why do you always attack the poster after your argument? It makes you seem so stupid.

Montesquieu wrote:I beg to differ from RC, but to rank Kiprop ahead of Rupp does not hold up under the light of day. Rupp is thirteen seconds faster at 10,000, and would crush Kiprop at 1500 and 5000

it's not that simple

wilson has never chased a time on the track

he's run to win in his few races at 10k & not even considered the clock

he won the 10k at trials & was by far the best of the kenyans & that was in 27'01 without any concern for the clock whupping amongst others 26'43 rotich

remember also he won kenyan 10k trials in nairobi in '10 in 27'26 which possibly worked out to 26'40 at sea-level & that was again a proper race not a tt & that was 2y ago !

his lines of fit i believe is very similar to tergat

53.5 / 1'51.3 ->

3'36.0

7'28.2

12'46.7

26'27.2

to

54.0 / 1'52.0 ->

3'36.8

7'28.6

12'46.1

26'22.2

rupp being faster at 1500 is no surprise at all, but look above & think tergat

the fact that canova is offering wilson only 10% chance indicates to me he may be carrying an injury/hasn't trained on from trials or more likely that the 2 other kenyans are hesitant to sacrifice themselves from the gun to pace him to <26'30

if they did, i'd put him level odds with kennster & 2nd favourite

canova himself said few weeks ago wilson is in 26'30/26'35 shape ( which i actually thought was an under-estimate )

Rupp can stay with anyone, whether it is 26:20 pace or

27:20.

1) KB

2) MF

3) GR

One of these days I'd like to see a civil conversation on these forums that doesn't devolve into people calling each other stupid.

gramthlete wrote:

One of these days I'd like to see a civil conversation on these forums that doesn't devolve into people calling each other stupid.

That's not gonna happen; humans visit this forum. With that said, here are my predictions:

1. Farah

2. Bekele

3. Rupp

Bekele

Taddese

Massai

Farah looks smooth today

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5VXpxhj09M

yyy wrote:

Rupp can stay with anyone, whether it is 26:20 pace or

27:20.

Hate to use it but...You do realize that the world record is 26:17 and nobody in the world has approached this in seven years.

hey renato's previews are pretty cool too:

http://www.albertostretti.org/

oops typo 26:40 makes more sense:)

The Kenyan Team General Manager talked about using different technigues in 10000m, expect to see something different from previous championships.

see 1:34

shttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MUdMths4_k