Montesquieu wrote:I beg to differ from RC, but to rank Kiprop ahead of Rupp does not hold up under the light of day. Rupp is thirteen seconds faster at 10,000, and would crush Kiprop at 1500 and 5000
it's not that simple
wilson has never chased a time on the track
he's run to win in his few races at 10k & not even considered the clock
he won the 10k at trials & was by far the best of the kenyans & that was in 27'01 without any concern for the clock whupping amongst others 26'43 rotich
remember also he won kenyan 10k trials in nairobi in '10 in 27'26 which possibly worked out to 26'40 at sea-level & that was again a proper race not a tt & that was 2y ago !
his lines of fit i believe is very similar to tergat
53.5 / 1'51.3 ->
3'36.0
7'28.2
12'46.7
26'27.2
to
54.0 / 1'52.0 ->
3'36.8
7'28.6
12'46.1
26'22.2
rupp being faster at 1500 is no surprise at all, but look above & think tergat
the fact that canova is offering wilson only 10% chance indicates to me he may be carrying an injury/hasn't trained on from trials or more likely that the 2 other kenyans are hesitant to sacrifice themselves from the gun to pace him to <26'30
if they did, i'd put him level odds with kennster & 2nd favourite
canova himself said few weeks ago wilson is in 26'30/26'35 shape ( which i actually thought was an under-estimate )