Will Evan Jager Get The American Record in Monaco? Predictions Please...

as crazy as it may sound, it's certainly possible as he hasn't been pushed yet. My guess is 8:12-13, but wouldn't be surprised if he went 8:06-8 if the pace is hot.

I say close but no cigar, not yet. Maybe 8:09-8:11.

Mind you, I would love to be wrong and for Jager to run 8:08 or better.

It's possible but I'll say 8:11.45

"..is likely in sub-13:10 shape right now."

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ9iSQTDUf1fmHJKAuK-vVUI9Ul6u2stjEoNTPxChGlpg_XUsKvZH0Iih0W

Very long shot.

I think that shows that the best stepplechasers haven't run fast 5000 at the height of the season nothing else.

Zlatan wrote:

It's possible but I'll say 8:11.45

"..is likely in sub-13:10 shape right now."

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ9iSQTDUf1fmHJKAuK-vVUI9Ul6u2stjEoNTPxChGlpg_XUsKvZH0Iih0W

on the sub 13:10 shape idea. my thoughts exactly.

i'm thinking jager is a 13:19-13:25 guy at the moment. this is why he didn't run the trials 5k.

he will run 8:10.22

I see the future!

No. He'll improve a lot, but that's too big a leap at this point. Be happy if he runs 8:14.

It's going to be a fast pace from the gun for sure but I think it might be a little too much for him. I hope I'm wrong but I'm going to say right around 8:09-10. He definitely has more in the tank judging from his previous races. 25% chance he breaks the AR. 100% chance he's the AR holder down the road.

If he doesn't fall and he really goes after it, this field gives him every chance to get the record, because there are not only the sub 7 and low 8 guys in the field who are too fast but also a number of 8:07-11 guys. I'll go out on a limb and say he breaks it with an 8:07.93. No risk, no reward.

I predict he takes it easy and saves a little for an important meet coming up next month. No WR.

I <3 Tacos wrote:

It's going to be a fast pace from the gun for sure but I think it might be a little too much for him. I hope I'm wrong but I'm going to say right around 8:09-10. He definitely has more in the tank judging from his previous races. 25% chance he breaks the AR. 100% chance he's the AR holder down the road.

Well said, I am onboard with you.

I hope he does not get hurt, getting over barriers when you are redlining is something Jager perhaps has not experienced. The steeple is not like a flat race, if your legs are shot going into the last lap, the barriers appear to be 10 feet tall. I am not sure you want to learn this lesson 2 weeks from the Olympics.

My estimate is Jager barely dips into the single diges and gets the AR later in the year. I would also like to see him run a fast flat race this year becasue I think he is running fast in the steeple becasue he is really healthy and fit for the first time in 2 years.

Does the 'hoover principle' apply to the steeple? He might have an easier time running 8:08 at the front rather than in the middle of a fast pack.

I meant sub 8, not sub 7.

Historiologist wrote:

I predict he takes it easy and saves a little for an important meet coming up next month. No WR.

Could he really not recover from an AR?

The way he's improved it's possible and he did make the trials race look easy. I'd love to see it. It would put him in the picture to at least be a part of the final at the Olympics.

Jager seems fearless and doesn't yet know what is possible. Sub-8:10 is probably the goal, though he could run anywhere from 8:08-8:12. I'd rather see him get a medal than the AR.

Diemer was probably better at shorter distances than longer (mile>5k). 3k was probably best intermediate distance for Marsh/Croghan. Lincoln might have run faster 5k if he had tried based on his 10k strength. But I'm not sure that times predict ability as far as great steeple guys go.

IAAF lists Ezekiel Kemboi's bests as

3000 Metres 7:49.95 Arzana 30/07/2011

3000 Metres Steeplechase 7:55.76 Monaco 22/07/2011

and doesn't have any times for other distances.

Think Kemboi could run faster for flat 3k?

Richard Mateelong's PRs are also less than stellar at other distances:

1500 Metres 3:41.79 Rechberghausen 01/05/2005

3000 Metres 7:48.71 Rehlingen 16/05/2005

5000 Metres 13:30.4 Nairobi 01/07/2006

10,000 Metres 28:18.4 Nairobi 26/05/2007

3000 Metres Steeplechase 7:56.81 Doha 11/05/2012

On the other hand, Saeed Shaheen Saif's PRs are incredible:

1500 Metres 3:33.51 Berlin 03/09/2006

2000 Metres 5:03.06 Villeneuve-d'Ascq 17/06/2001

3000 Metres 7:32.46 Doha 08/05/2009

Two Miles 8:18.80 London 07/08/1999

5000 Metres 12:48.81 Ostrava 12/06/2003

10 Kilometres 28:05 Portsmouth 24/10/2010

15 Kilometres 43:22 Portsmouth 24/10/2010

2000 Metres Steeplechase 5:14.53 Doha 13/05/2005

3000 Metres Steeplechase 7:53.63 Bruxelles 03/09/2004

Like most of the ppl here I am undecided. Sub 808 is moving, especially for a guy new to the events. However he looks so smooth and is an enormous talent in the sport. Way better than any of the guys who have the top american time ever. I say sub 812 with the record not being a rediculous expectation. Look for him to get this record if not this time definitely in the near future.

I think he may have the ability right now, but I don't think he can do it in his first fast race in Europe. I'll guess 8:12.