Discussion: What Does The Paris 5,000 Mean For Galen Rupp's Medal Chances?

Agreed. Very solid analysis. People keep pointing to the 5,000 - but it is obvious that Rupp's focus is on the 10. Bekele did not look like a world beater &, again, I think that Rupp's strength & closing speed; combined with the struggling (relative) Ethiopians & question marks on the Kenyan side - means this is a golden opportunity for Rupp to sneak in for a medal. People are talking about silver or maybe even gold - but I would gladly take a bronze medal at this point.

I agree that Galen Rupp's focus will be the 10k not the 5k. I do not know why they keep insisting he will medal in the 5k.

Also, this is the Olympic Games, it is not about who has the fastest PB or the fastest kick, but who is better at running rounds and being strong at the end of the race. These guys can run 12'40's now, but can they run 4'00 miles or faster for 2 rounds. And one hit wonders don't count, have they been consistent, have they peaked early, all these make a difference.

If Galen and Farah take out the 10k out hard, they will have a better chance to medal than if they sit and kick. The 5k will come when it comes.

If Galen Rupp takes the lead to try to force a fast pace, his finish will be in the double digits. He just needs to tuck in, stay out of trouble, and relax for 20 laps or so (and hope that things don't heat up beforehand). I am pretty sure Rupp can run with the best for the last mile or even the last 2k, but if one of the Kenyans decides that lap #11 would be a great time to start clocking 61s, I think Rupp is in serious trouble.

An excellent analysis by Letsrun, I wish I could say thanks to whoever wrote it.

...whoever wrote it, thanks.

When you point out the fact that "two of the guys Rupp beat handily at Prefontaine in the 5,000"

Do not forget to consider the travel to America for those guys. Rupp was home. He is welcome in Addis Abeba or Nairobi.

Also note that John Kipkoech paced Hengelo 5000 on may 27, then he has to rest and travel to america for that 5000m. Longosiwa had to focus on the Olympics Trials and save energy as well as Yenew who had to prepare for Paris Trials.

Uh...54 and 64 are both double digits.

adsfadsf wrote:

If Galen Rupp takes the lead to try to force a fast pace, his finish will be in the double digits.,,

Double-digits as in not top 10, I assume.

Good analysis. A lot of this hand-wringing about Rupp comes from people who think it's impossible that he's in sub-12:50 shape, IMO. I'd say it's unlikely that he's not. Farah was world champ in the 5k last year, and Rupp has been a second or two behind him since 2011. Does anyone think Farah isn't in sub-12:50 shape?

Coach Owl Birdo wrote:

Uh...54 and 64 are both double digits.

adsfadsf wrote:

If Galen Rupp takes the lead to try to force a fast pace, his finish will be in the double digits.,,

bro, he means higher than 9th place, i.e, 10th, 11th, 12th, double digit finish

Very interesting! :-) Let's not forget though that the Ethiopian team might be changed in the last minute due to Federation orders. Gebremariam doesn't really seem to be a 10000 guy any more (and the only reason he tried out in the first place was that he was cut from the Marathon squad) so chances are they'll let Gebremeskel double up and do the 10000 too. (Or Sihine back on to keep his wife Dibaba happy).

If any of the four guys on the Marathon squad should be injured prior to the games the descision will be easy, if not it might happen anyway.

Also we have some ex-Kenyans and ex-Ethiopians training under the radar that will compete for Quatar and Bahrein in the Olympics and will kinda come there as wild cards. And then there's Uganda who seem to produce a track medalist out of nowhere every tenth year or so, or Tanzania who hasn't made much fuzz as a runners country since the 70s due to being one of the worst failed states in the world but now has a bunch of good guys making a living on the North European road race circuit rather than even trying to get on the Diamond League (don't know if they'll even go to the Olympics though).

The biggest wild card of all though might be the North African spring revolutions of last year, their runners (if they send any) will be running for free democratic countries for the first time, albeit that's a bigger factor in team sports (Croatia after breaking free from Serbia won the handboll olympics in 1996, took silver in the European Soccer Champs the same year and made semifinals at the World Cup in 1998) it can't be ruled out as a possible factor). Sticking my chin out for punching I'm guessing that Egypt over the next ten years have a good chance to be the country to rise to challenge Kenya and Ethiopia, they already have a long tradition in the world top of Soccer (African champs several times over) and Handboll, but one where talents were directed and encurraged to go there by the military in much the same way as running is the "national" sport of Ethiopia.

Peter Andersson wrote:

Very interesting! :-) Let's not forget though that the Ethiopian team might be changed in the last minute due to Federation orders. Gebremariam doesn't really seem to be a 10000 guy any more (and the only reason he tried out in the first place was that he was cut from the Marathon squad) so chances are they'll let Gebremeskel double up and do the 10000 too.

With what qualifying time?

Why no mention of Yenew Alamirew in the article? He went 12:48 in Paris and Rupp beat him at Pre.

I think and I have pointed out before that Rupp will be right where he was in Daegu 5th or 6th, lets be sincere with ourselves he has to deal with 1 Brit, 2 Ethiopians and 2 Kenyans, I know he will beat Lagat so that does not factor in the equation. Remember at Pre, the Kenyans and others had traveled a long way and Just imagine what time Rupp could run in Addis or Nairobi so those results do not matter at this point in the season.

If my life were to depend on it, I will pick Ethiopians to win both the men's 10k and 5K. This is their 3K steeplechase and they hate to let it go. What I saw in Paris has convinced me that Ethiopians will win and it is going to be a fast race. They know Mo and Rupp will kick with about 1K to go so the tempo is going to be fast right from the start. I wish Rupp the best but the fact that he might not compete even one race before the Olympics is a big pointer to what I consider his weakness, he needed to get to a race to be elbowed and shoved a bit so that he knows the men he is facing,and as you can see all athletes are getting into shape world bests are tumbling fast everywhere. at least Mo is racing in the London DL

They ran under 12:50 because they had to, not because it was the best thing for their Olympic preparation, I see it as detrimental to their medal chances. Rupp needs a bit of luck to medal, and so do the rest, but he has a shot and I'll be cheering for him.

@ Augusto: You got a good point there. I forgot. He's not A-standard qualified, is he? Then again, their federation can easy enough set up a "final trials" internal 10000 at home front camp to fix that A-standard, it could even/also be the excuse they need to get him on and the other guy off the team...

Peter Andersson wrote:

@ Augusto: You got a good point there. I forgot. He's not A-standard qualified, is he? Then again, their federation can easy enough set up a "final trials" internal 10000 at home front camp to fix that A-standard, it could even/also be the excuse they need to get him on and the other guy off the team...

It's not going to happen. They won't have any more competitions until the Olympics and they wouldn't try to have their top 5000m man attempt a distance for the first time before the 5000m at his first Olympics. If he runs a 10000m next year, then maybe he'd be in a position for that for Moscow, but for now they'll stick with the team they have.

Rupp's chances are no greater given that race and very weak at best. Mo Farah, Kenny Bekele, and Moses Masai are my favorites for the medals. Farah and Bekele know how to win when it counts and Masai may not win but is always in the mix when it counts. Rupp has not proven to be a medal contender. Yes he out kicked an old Bernard Lagat on what amounts to be his home track. Well guess what, he isn't racing Lagat in the 10000 in the Olympics.

I can't imagine Rupp medaling in the 5K. He'll be presentable, though. If he's top six, he should be proud. And I'm a fan of his. I think his medal hopes lie in the 10K, but even there it'll be a stretch.

super** wrote:

I know he will beat Lagat so that does not factor in the equation.

Is this the only mention of last year's Silver medalist in this thread?

I still think Lagat is going to win Gold but maybe I am way off here.

The guys in Paris were racing for $$, and went as fast as they needed to to win money. A ball-buster race like that may not have been the best thing to do before the Olympics, ie. leaving it all out there a month before the important race.

May be a non-factor, but I wouldn't want to feel like I peeked early. These guys all run the race they have to to place high. Paris was a different kind of race than the Olympics will be.