Very interesting! :-) Let's not forget though that the Ethiopian team might be changed in the last minute due to Federation orders. Gebremariam doesn't really seem to be a 10000 guy any more (and the only reason he tried out in the first place was that he was cut from the Marathon squad) so chances are they'll let Gebremeskel double up and do the 10000 too. (Or Sihine back on to keep his wife Dibaba happy).
If any of the four guys on the Marathon squad should be injured prior to the games the descision will be easy, if not it might happen anyway.
Also we have some ex-Kenyans and ex-Ethiopians training under the radar that will compete for Quatar and Bahrein in the Olympics and will kinda come there as wild cards. And then there's Uganda who seem to produce a track medalist out of nowhere every tenth year or so, or Tanzania who hasn't made much fuzz as a runners country since the 70s due to being one of the worst failed states in the world but now has a bunch of good guys making a living on the North European road race circuit rather than even trying to get on the Diamond League (don't know if they'll even go to the Olympics though).
The biggest wild card of all though might be the North African spring revolutions of last year, their runners (if they send any) will be running for free democratic countries for the first time, albeit that's a bigger factor in team sports (Croatia after breaking free from Serbia won the handboll olympics in 1996, took silver in the European Soccer Champs the same year and made semifinals at the World Cup in 1998) it can't be ruled out as a possible factor). Sticking my chin out for punching I'm guessing that Egypt over the next ten years have a good chance to be the country to rise to challenge Kenya and Ethiopia, they already have a long tradition in the world top of Soccer (African champs several times over) and Handboll, but one where talents were directed and encurraged to go there by the military in much the same way as running is the "national" sport of Ethiopia.