What is the explanation for Rupp's 58 second last lap only a few weeks ago?

The explanation is that you're a moron.

The explanation is that you're a moron.[/quote]

Impolite but true:

THen he ran 12:58; right? and now it was a 13:22 race

As I said, I think that is a possible explanation. However, if it is, he probably isn't as likely of a medal contender as it may seem since he will be facing people that can run a similar last lap off a much faster pace. Given the amount of speculation about his medal chances and ability to run 12:45, I don't think that the topic is as ridiculous as your post suggests.

Billy Pilgrim wrote:

There were two very different last 400m in his last two 5000m races. I see two possible explanations, either he was training through Pre and just in much better shape now, or 12:58 is near his fastest possible pace and he was maxed out at that point. I'm hoping the first explanation is correct, as he is going to be running against athletes with capable of running a low 50's last 400 off a significantly faster pace.

12:58 is not "near his fastest possible pace" it IS his fastest possible pace. IT was his PR and will be the fastest he is able to run ... until he runs faster.

Just because someone (a crazy ventolin) said he can run 12:45 doesn't make it true.

It is simple really. A 12:58 is 62 AVERAGE, so he was "on pace" for a 13:02 until the last lap at 58. A 13:22 is 64+ average, so he was "on pace" for a 13:32 until he kicked to a 52.5 last lap.

13:02 pace vs. 13:32 pace for a runner like him are worlds apart, especially if it is maintained over a full 11.5 laps.

The topic is absolutely ridiculous. You just asked "What is the explanation for Rupp's slower last lap in a much faster race only a few weeks ago?" and that question answers itself.

In the Trials 5000m final, Rupp was ~12:29.8 with a lap to go. At the Pre Classic, where his finishing time was 12:58.9 and his last lap was ~58.x, we'll say he was ~11:58.3 (I'm probably off by a few tenths, but it shouldn't change the analysis).

If you were running a 5000m race, would you run a few seconds faster over the last lap if you came through 4600 more than THIRTY seconds slower than your PR race?

This is ignoring the fact that one might expect Rupp to be a little sharper for this meet than the Pre classic. Purely based on the fact that he was averaging more than 2 seconds slower per lap in the Trials 5000m than he was at Pre, is it so astounding to think he'd be capable of an extra 5-6 seconds in the final lap?

Consider that Rupp had closed in 52.hi in a slow 1500 (Pac-10s his senior year, which was 2009? or 2010? I forget which, either way, multiple years ago) and 53.x in a slow 10k (2010 national championships). For anyone who pays attention, Rupp's last lap hasn't been an issue for several years. The difference has been he's been racing the best in the world instead of the best of the NCAA.

So, to recap, several years ago, Rupp could finish a slower race in the 52-53 range. The big difference is that now, Rupp is much fitter, and so a "slow race" for him is being 12:29 with a lap to go instead of, say, 13:00. It's awesome that he's this fit, but his kick shouldn't surprise anyone who pays attention.

I'd think most Letsrun posters could run a pretty fast last lap if they ran 4600m a touch slower than their 10k PR pace and sprinted in. I don't mean to take this away from Rupp- just that while his abilities are IMPRESSIVE, they're not SURPRISING, given his consistent development over the last few years.

Obvious mathematical error fixed- my apologies.

I think its a little bit of everything. There was a significant wind swirling at the Prefontaine meet. Salazar said Rupp's 12:58 time translated to 12:50 in better conditions. I believe it having been at the Pre meet. I wasn't at Hayward on Thursday so I can't compare to Pre. But the conditions looked better. Less wind and cooler.

But Rupp also looked in better shape in these Trials. As he should of. This was what he was building for after all, not the Pre meet.

Then obviously a faster pace at Pre makes for a slower last lap. I think he did alright at Pre. He didn't finish too far back from Koech who I think is a favorite to medal. And he beat KB handily.

grizz wrote:

So, to recap, several years ago, Rupp could finish a slower race in the 52-53 range. The big difference is that now, Rupp is much fitter, and so a "slow race" for him is being 12:29 with a lap to go instead of, say, 13:00. It's awesome that he's this fit, but his kick shouldn't surprise anyone who pays attention.

I'd think most Letsrun posters could run a pretty fast last lap if they ran 4600m a touch slower than their 10k PR pace and sprinted in. I don't mean to take this away from Rupp- just that while his abilities are IMPRESSIVE, they're not SURPRISING, given his consistent development over the last few years.

Right, the pace at the OT was slower than Rupp's 10k pace. Once I was in a 5k at a similar pace compared to my much more modest PRs and closed with what I thought my watch indicated was a 70 second final lap, which surprised me until I realized it had actually been 60 seconds...I had no idea I'd be able to close a 5k that quickly, since even my PR was closed in about 67 seconds. A slightly slower pace can make a world of difference when winding up for the final lap.

I guess I should have written the question differently as the point I intended to make seems to have been misunderstood by nearly everyone. I do understand that it is harder to kick off a faster pace.

I think that the relevant question is about the significance of his kick slowing from 52 to 58 with the faster pace. Several other runners still have a very good kick off a faster pace (Farah, Koech, probably 2 ethiopians). A 58 last lap (or 56 or 57) if the pace is relatively fast is much less likely to medal than a 53 last lap in a 13:20 race.

A lot of posters recently have talked about a fast pace being Rupp's best chance for a medal. From his racing this year, it looks like a slow pace is the best that he can hope for.

He's upping his dosage as the games get closer.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

0/10

The finishing time of the trials was also slightly deceiving since the first lap was 72 or so. Had Rupp run 64-66 for the first lap, would it have significantly changed the results of the final lap?

Let's say it adds one second to the final lap. So he would have run 6-8 seconds faster on the first lap and one second slower on the last lap...13:15-13:17 finishing time with a 53.5 closer.

Now if he runs a further 10 seconds faster with a 55 closer, that's a 13:05-13:07 finishing time with a pretty good kick. He's got a good crack at a medal but it is no lock. But he did just beat Lagat, so I would now say that he is just as much a favorite as anyone.

Presuming that nobody has an awful race at the Olympics, where Rupp, Farah, Lagat, etc end up is going to depend heavily on their positioning and tactics leading into the final laps. I could see any of them winning, but nobody can make a tactical mistake (eg Farah's mistimed kick in the 10k last year).