Does Galen Rupp really have a good chance at a medal in the Olympics?

The problem Galen had last year was being able to kick with the best of them with 600 left. I hope he can medal in these olympics. I say if he follows Farah all the way down to kick time then he should have a chance to medal.

just responding, no jeilan is not running and yes rupp has beaten merga

Merga and Jeilan won't be there. The list of guys who won't be there is long enough that he has as good a chance as any number of other guys who will be there.

Galen will have to take it up a notch to medal. He will have to do something he hasn't done yet: make a strong late move for the win or pull an unexpected huge kick out at the end.

In essence, he will have to do what the "unknown African" does every Olympics. Basically we are hoping that Galen Rupp is this Olympics' "unknown African".

I think he is close and it will be exciting to watch.

if the pace is honest, he can medal in a sub 26:50 final, with his kick.

Good chance to be top 6 or 7, but things will have to break perfectly for him to pick up some hardware. Any chance of an Ethiopia/Kenya boycott?

He is not a medal favorite but he has a chance.

Every four years we have someone who looks like they might medal. In the race, they invariably fall far behind as the Kenyans and Ethiopians use surging tactics to break up the field. With a lap to go, the American hopeful(s) are far out of the picture and finish well beaten. Knowing that they always run this way, why are the Americans always so unprepared?

This style of race was run in 2008 and Rupp finished 13th in 27:36 to Bekele's winning time of 27:01. Clearly Rupp is in better shape, the question on my mind is, can he or any of the other Americans handle the surging race style that the Africans always run?

Doesn't this 'surging race style' just relate to a 26:30 fitness?

top ten

Reality Check. Here are the top performing times in the 10,000m for 2012 from the IAAF (link below). Galen Rupp has the 25th best time over the distance in 2012 so far. So the simple answer to your question is no. A top 10 finish would be quite an accomplishment though.

http://iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=o/age=n/season=2012/sex=M/all=n/legal=A/disc=10K/detail.html

His top 25 this year means nothing. There will be only 3 of those Kenyans and Ethiopians on that list in the 10,000m final. Rupp has proven sub 27min pace and can finish in around 4:05-4:10 for 1600m and maybe sub 2:00 for the final 800m at sub 27 pace. He needs to stick tight to Farah, run an evenly paced race and push the pace hard over the last 1200m. He has an outside chance at a medal but it means having a perfect race.

3 each from Kenya and Ethiopia plus Farah, that is 7 people ahead of him right there for an 8th place finish.

Trouble with Rupp is that he can't kick with the best of them.

JustSayin wrote:

Reality Check. Here are the top performing times in the 10,000m for 2012 from the IAAF (link below). Galen Rupp has the 25th best time over the distance in 2012 so far. So the simple answer to your question is no. A top 10 finish would be quite an accomplishment though.

http://iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=o/age=n/season=2012/sex=M/all=n/legal=A/disc=10K/detail.html

Whilst that list is interesting it's a bit misleading in this context because each nation can only send 3 people to the OG.

Witch Kenyan can beat Rupp ? Wilson Kiprop finished trials in 58.56 last lap. Rupp can run 58 back to back on 27flat race... Who we got left Kenenisa if he gets in shape fast like before Brussels, then he will beat Rupp no questions and of course Mo. He's a real contender for that bronze! I have believed in him since his college days -> haters are going to hate ,but he has what it takes. Before 26-48 everyone said he's a puss, he has no heart, no speed etc. then he run AR and then you accuse him about drugs ;D You losers can talk everything you want ,but his true fans always will have his back! Before you say anything negative about athletes: like '' he's done after 1-2 bad races ;D '' think about problems that you have and not worry about problems of elite-athletes because they will be just fine :)

To all loooosers/haters out there ;)

He hast to. run. A great last lap thats the only way.

The results of the 10k will be:

1. Bekele

2. Mo

3. T. Bekele

4. Geb Geb

...

6: Rupp

Here are the qualifiers from Kenya: Wilson Kiprop, Moses Masai, Karoki. And here are the three qualifiers from Ethiopia: Tariku Bekele, Desisa Benti and Kenenisa who appears to be rounding back into form. And then there is Farah. Rupp may pick off one of the Kenyans or Ethiopians but I don't think he is going to pick off 4 of them to get to a bronze. And there are other players as well like Tadese.

http://universalsports.com/2012/06/02/kiprop-surges-to-shock-victory-in-kenyan-trials/

http://running.competitor.com/2012/05/news/gebrselassie-misses-olympic-qualifier_53038

Just putting the facts out there.