NCAA womens 1500/5k/10 predictions

I dunno..i'll be rooting for Hasay but she needs to take it out hard if she wants to win. Infeld has proven to have a kick equal to, or even better than Reid.

1500: Infeld, Flood, Hasay

5000: Reid, Sisson, Kroeger

10000: Rogers, ?, ?

1500m

1. Piliusina

2. Infield

3. Hasay

4. Van Dalen

5. Smith

6. McGee

7. Friday

8. Flood

Steeple

1. Kipp

2. Praught

3. Pappas

4. Henry

5. LaCaze

6. Stowe

7. Kulik

8. Leutert

5000

1. Tebo

2. D'Agostino

3. Reid

4. Kroeger

5. Rogers

6. Sisson

7. Goethals

8. Sutherland

10,000

1. Rogers

2. Tuliamuk

3. White

4. Maier

5. Nelson

6. Kibet

7. Bottorff

8. Bergman

3.

1500 should be really interesting. You have 5 primary contenders in Hasay, Infeld, Flood, Van Dalen and Piliusina. 3 of the 5 are individual NCAA champs, Flood powered Washington to the DMR championship and Piliusina has 2 runnerup 800 finishes. All very solid runners so just depends on who is feeling good during the race. No idea.

5000 - Reid lost to several collegians at Stanford, didn't run at Big Easts and then finished 3rd at regionals. She finished 4th last year at regionals and still won the double so she obviously is still very capable. Sisson and Abbey D both are running great. And then throw in Tebo and an ever improving Megan Goethals. Reid hasn't looked great in the races i have seen so i'm going with a Abbey D - Sisson 1-2 finish.

10k - Maier ran great at indoors and barely lost to Infeld and Saina in the 3k and 5k. This might be her race. I'm going with Maier with Tuliamuk a close 2nd.

You have Deb Maier in 4th? You are on hallucinogens. She will win the 10K.

DL13 wrote:

1500 should be really interesting. You have 5 primary contenders in Hasay, Infeld, Flood, Van Dalen and Piliusina. 3 of the 5 are individual NCAA champs, Flood powered Washington to the DMR championship and Piliusina has 2 runnerup 800 finishes. All very solid runners so just depends on who is feeling good during the race. No idea.

Feldman, who has the fastest time from Regionals, handled Van Dalen easily twice at Regionals and Van Dalen was clearly struggling to handle Feldman's kick in both races so Feldman would have to be one of the 'primary contenders' as you put it.

1500-Indfeld or Flood

5k- Tebo or Reid

10k- Maier

Feldman has been running well and she could certainly contend on a good day. All of my primary contenders are established. They all have been to NCAAs and have either won or have finished near the top. There are other runners in the field who are certainly capable (Feldman, Schneider, Friday, Tracey, McGee come to mind) I still rate Van Dalen ahead of Feldman goin in to NCAAs. Regionals mean something but not everything. Look at Reid last year with her 4th place finish. Look at Infeld this season. She coasted in both her races at regionals and took easy seconds. Van Dalen did what she had to do and advanced.

1500:

1. Hasay

2. Piliusina

3. Flood

4. Infeld

5. Feldman

This one is tough to call. I'm going with Hasay cause she's a gamer, her kick is back, and she wants it...and a little sentiment value. But I could easily see any of those others (or Van Dalen) winning it. Piliusina out kicked Flood at regionals and Infeld was out kicked (I know regionals isn't the best indicator), and Feldman has a nasty kick but she has to stay within distance.

5000:

1. D'Agostino

2. Reid

3. Tebo

4. Sisson

5. Kosinski

Another tough one...Reid wants the double but she hasn't looked great lately. D'Agostino is improving a ton and has great closing speed (out kicked Reid at Mt. Sac). It'll be hot, but Kroeger and Sisson don't like a slow pace.

DL13 wrote:

Feldman has been running well and she could certainly contend on a good day. All of my primary contenders are established. They all have been to NCAAs and have either won or have finished near the top. There are other runners in the field who are certainly capable (Feldman, Schneider, Friday, Tracey, McGee come to mind) I still rate Van Dalen ahead of Feldman goin in to NCAAs. Regionals mean something but not everything. Look at Reid last year with her 4th place finish. Look at Infeld this season. She coasted in both her races at regionals and took easy seconds. Van Dalen did what she had to do and advanced.

Van Dalen was certainly not coasting however, she was hanging on and couldn't respond to Feldman's kick, I rate Feldman ahead of Van Dalen going into NCAAs. Here's a shot of the finish of the Regional final from the Princeton website, check out Van Dalen, that's not someone who's doing what she has to do, she's giving everything!

Regarding Reid she nearly collapsed on crossing the finish line and doesn't look in good shape for NCAAs this year.

That might well be but in some races a runner just doesn't have their usual kick. Van Dalen was there in the end and got outkicked by Feldman. Credit to Feldman. Like i said, she certainly is talented and could certainly contend. I'm giving Van Dalen the benefit of the doubt mainly cause she just won the indoor title. Reid, i think, is a different story. She wasn't there in the end and like you said, nearly collapsed at the finish line. She didn't race indoors and didn't race much in outdoors either. And when she did race (Mt Sac), she didn't win.

Btw, good picture. Van Dalen does seem to be giving it her all. Feldman does have a great kick.

DL13 wrote:

Btw, good picture. Van Dalen does seem to be giving it her all. Feldman does have a great kick.

She does indeed, 7th ranked in the 800, 2:03.65.

Don't see how anyone could be against Tebo in the 5k. Fastest PR in the 5k and the best 800 PR of anyone in the race. Whether the pace is fast or slow, she will win.

I do enjoy hallucinogens...but that has nothing to do with my predictions. Did you listen to her Flotrack interview post Prelim Round in Austin? Did you see her run in that race? She's coming off an injury; was surprised by her Payton Jordan result; skipped Pac-12. Let me tell you...I was generous in my prediction.

Check back with me on Thursday.

punky bowles wrote:

I do enjoy hallucinogens...but that has nothing to do with my predictions. Did you listen to her Flotrack interview post Prelim Round in Austin? Did you see her run in that race? She's coming off an injury; was surprised by her Payton Jordan result; skipped Pac-12. Let me tell you...I was generous in my prediction.

Check back with me on Thursday.

What he said. Maier is an immense talent. She ran a solid race off of very little training and multiple cortisone shots.

With that said, Aliphine T. will dominate the 10k. If Maier makes it to the starting line, she should be lucky to make the top 5.

An aside.. it's crazy how weak the women's 10k still is on the NCAA level, relative to the 1500 and 5k and the men's distance races. It surprises me because the 10k among the pro women ranks in the US has come so far in a few years.

I agree that Feldman has a great kick, but let's remember she lost the 1500 at Heps by more than three second to Abbey D'Agostino because she couldn't catch her. If the race is very tactical, she has a decent shot, but there is likely to be a big move made 600+ out and she doesn't have the strength to hang with the likes of Hasay or Flood or infeld from there.

I think Reid's performance in the heat at Regionals was telling. she's a gamer and the defending champ, but she's been vulnerable this year and Des Moines at noon is likely to be very hot as well. I'm going with Abbey D over Tebo

Maier has been injured and barely training. I don't think she has a chance of beating Tuliamuk.

From what I've heard, Reid has her sights set on London and may sacrifice the NCAA season in order to peak later. She was even considering running at PRE this Saturday to get the 1500 A standard. Anyways I still don't understand why she is even running the 5k...her best event is clearly the 1500.

A little upset that we will not see a Hasay vs Reid battle this year. I really want to Jordan to get her first outdoor NCAA title!

Reid would prevail over hasay, so no need to be upset that there will not be a battle.

1500:Infeld

5000:Kroeger

10000: Tuliamuk