Anyone Buying Some Facebook tomorrow?

not I. there is a ton of hype that will hold the price up for a while but when it dies i think some people will be disappointed. better off waiting and seeing what happens. might be able to snag a bargain after the hype is gone and the price settles.

Agreed. I think it is best to wait until the hype is low and the media begins reporting on how everyone is disappointed in Facebook. Snatch it when public moral is low and then hold until a new Pages announcement is made. At that point, sell after the spike and repeat if necessary.

bangalangadanga wrote:

I think more people than not are going to buy into it.

Are you saying over half the world will invest, or just Americans? I want to know just how high to set my expectations.

2 words

eleventy billion

Buy it early and then dump it next week and take the short-term gain.

Will facebook even be around 3 or 4 years from now?

$105B IPO will make it a top-40 company in market capitalization. Even if revenue was $4B in 2011 (which is double the $2B from 2010), that's still 25x annual revenue.

Let's disregard for a moment that revenues do not equal earnings, and assume that FB's 2011 earnings were $4B. While many tech companies support 25x P/E, it's hard to imagine any legitimate company with a $100B capitalization and 25x P/E.

So where does FB go from here? If the $100B valuation is correct, it needs $10-$14B earnings to bring the P/E into the 10x-7x range. I'm not sure how much revenue is needed to produce $10-$14B in earnings, but let's just say it's $20B. Don't count me in the group that expects FB to deliver $20B annual revenue anytime soon.

(I am not Adam Smith, I am not a financial analyst, and I did not sleep at a Holiday Inn last night).

I assume it won't actually be available anywhere near its $38 price. What do you think it will cost to buy a share at say, 9:35 am?

$42 - $44 ?

Just a FAD!!!!

fad? i dont know. i believe that facebook doesn't have a good raport with the public. people are suspicious of it. people give it up for lent. people are trying to disentangle from the addiction they've developed with facebook. i don't know if it will grow. i don't know if it will be around in 3 or 4 year. frankly, i don't care. i want people to hype it up. i want to invest 5 grand and make 20 grand in a week. sell, by a motorcycle, and put the rest in the bank.

earnings, fundamentals, revenue projections?

wait ... i need someone to say "you don't understand, this time it is diffrent."

bangalangadanga wrote:

I think more people than not are going to buy into it. That along with the hype is going to drive the price pretty sky high regardless of the business model and plans. Anyone going to have their mouses poised to buy tomorrow morning?

No.

Amazon has a P/E of 100 and a market cap of 100 Billion.

I think Facebook will rocket to 50 then come back to 40 and thats where big buyers will buy back.

A P/E of 100-200 is doable for Facebook now, but in the next few months it better be showing proof that its growing or Wallstreet will dump it.

bangalangadanga wrote:

fad? i dont know. i believe that facebook doesn't have a good raport with the public. people are suspicious of it. people give it up for lent. people are trying to disentangle from the addiction they've developed with facebook. i don't know if it will grow. i don't know if it will be around in 3 or 4 year. frankly, i don't care. i want people to hype it up. i want to invest 5 grand and make 20 grand in a week. sell, by a motorcycle, and put the rest in the bank.

Thats not gonna happen bro unless you go in super margin.

I expect a pop but nothing that will get you that much money.

The price should be $30 a share, not 45 which is where it will open at 11:01AM.

Garcia Diego Lopez Valderama wrote:

I think Facebook will rocket to 50 then come back to 40

Sound like as good a guess as any. I'd guess that a market order to buy at open would probably be filled in the upper 40s.

Facebook reminds me of the dotcom boom back in 1999. People were buying dotcom stocks like crazy.

I just don't get Facebook. I don't see the fascination with it. At least Google can target specific searches with ads. Facebook can't really do that. On Google,you search for Saucony Kinvara and you get ads for shoe stores. I get that. I just clicked on my Facebook page. There's an ad for the Ford Fusion Hybrid. I haven't bought a new car since 1978. I visit a friend's wall and I see a lame college yearbook ad. If I wanted to search college yearbooks, I would have done it, like, 6 years ago when the ads first came out.

In short,the current model will have to be revamped considerably to generate the kind of revenue this IPO is anticipating. It's possible Zuckerberg and do it, but until I can see it, I'm not buying the stock.

Before buying in, I would strongly urge looking up the history of comparable IPOs like Google and Linked In.

High profile IPOs like this tend to be great deals for employees who put in a lot of hours to get to the IPO day....but lousy deals for investors.

Consider this: investors who bought Google and held it for the last 5 years have a whopping 30% return over that time. That's not annual return; That's Total Return. Many investors in IPOs like these see their results cut in half over the next 6 months or so.

If there was stock available to borrow (there won't be), I'd seriously consider selling the thing short.

fisky wrote:

Typo.

It's possible Zuckerberg *can* do it

Umm. We're talking about buying an IPO. Google was IPOed more than 5 years ago. If you bought Google at IPO price, which i think anyone could get in because of the dutch auction style offering, or even if you bought it after open on the first day, you're looking at something like 500% return

Anyone buying FB will lose their money. If you don't already have shares from private offerings then you have missed the ship. FB's S-1 is ugly and with growth rates already slowing it will be a bad stock to own. Not to mention the IPO comes at a volatile time in the market. They are valuing FB at $104 billion when it should be valued at less than $4 billion. If you think FB is bigger than MCD, then go ahead and buy!