Will a woman ever run a 4 minute mile?

Makes me wonder, could El Guerrouj today throw on a dress and run under 4:00 today?

Maybe that Baylor Basketball chick?

amp wrote:

The 4:12 and change was set 16 years ago. Is it really that good?

It was run by a Russian. I don't know if it's a legit record...

I think a woman could run a 4 minute mile but it would be the equivalent of a man running like a sub 26 10k; possible but highly unlikely.

In 1885 the men's record for the mile was 4:12, which is close the women's record now. So my guess is a women will break a 4 minute mile in about 120 years from now.

Why would you list that year and then come up with 120 years?

joe9090 wrote:

In 1885 the men's record for the mile was 4:12, which is close the women's record now. So my guess is a women will break a 4 minute mile in about 120 years from now.

The women are getting slower, so it's not going to happen. Women rarely break 4 min for 1500m anymore, no one did in 2011.

I should have gone for the mile. I could break 4:00 and I could also break YOU. (Scratches balls)

69 years to go from 4:12 to sub 4.

So 1996 plus 69 is 2065.

We're looking at about 50 years from now.

Now take into consideration that the women's 1500 record is equal to 4:08 high and we are even closer.

toro wrote:

Now take into consideration that the women's 1500 record is equal to 4:08 high and we are even closer.

Question: what is the best 1500m time of the last 20 years that was run on a track that has not been demolished since?

If a sprinter like Allison felix that has 49-50 second 400 speed, works on her endurance she could easily do it!

When a man run 3:38 for the mile a woman will run under four.

Semenya without hormone treatments would have a shot.

mynexthandle wrote:

Semenya without hormone treatments would have a shot.

No, she really wouldn't. Her PR is 1:55.45 in the 800. No way that's close to breaking 4.

It took the men 69 years to progress from 4.12 to sub 4. However, there was gradual improvement over time. The women are progressively getting slower. Therefore, you can't compare the two. NOT ONE SINGLE WOMAN BROKE 4 MINUTES IN THE 1500m IN 2011! Therefore, the women are currently at 4:18 in the mile. Compared to other events, women are terrible at the 1500m/mile.

You can never compare the progression of men to women. Men were running 4:12 before it was a professional sport. If 50 years ago as much money went into track as it does now, as many people worldwide ran the sport as do today, and they had the current tracks and spikes then 4 minutes would have been broken much quicker.

One thing to consider - progression in performance is not linear. The progression is more like a punctuated equilibrium.

The woman to do it would simultaneously have to be one of the best 400m and 5000m runners in the world. Not happening. Ever!

I think that's too much time to cut off for it to be probable. Maybe improvements in training and equipment or someone having the perfect day can get you a couple of seconds closer to 4, but most of the time would have to come from a woman having freakishly superior talent to anyone to date, which is highly improbable.

Even the current record is an outlier that is 3 seconds faster than number 2, and comes from an era at least when doping was common and testing less effective, so you at least have to question whether a clean athlete may actually have to cut off significantly more than 12 seconds from what would be the true "clean" WR.

You also have to look at the trends. With the 4 minute men's mile, men were gradually whittling their way down to 4 minutes and 4 minutes was in line with that progression. There's no such progression with women's times as other pointed out above.

However, it's always worth having some humility about this stuff. Brutus Hamilton predicted in 1935 that 4:01.6 was the fastest a man could ever run, so I could be surprised.

Women's Top 20 Mile Times for 2011

4:29.59 1. 1. Hind DEHIBA CHAHYD 79 FRA F 1. Montreuil-sous-Bois (FRA) 07.06 1122

4:30.51 2. 2. Barbara PARKER 82 GBR F 1. Nashville (USA) 04.06 1115

4:31.04 3. 3. Bertukan FEYESA 91 ETH F 2. Montreuil-sous-Bois (FRA) 07.06 1112

4:31.98 4. 4. Nicole EDWARDS-SIFUENTES 86 CAN F 1. Falmouth (USA) 13.08 1105

4:32.29 5. 5. Brenda MARTINEZ 87 USA F 2. Falmouth (USA) 13.08 1103

4:32.52 6. 6. Erin DONOHUE 83 USA F 3. Falmouth (USA) 13.08 1101

4:32.89 7. 7. Tatyana GUDKOVA 85 RUS F 3. Montreuil-sous-Bois (FRA) 07.06 1098

4:33.57 8. 8. Gabrielle ANDERSON 86 USA F 4. Falmouth (USA) 13.08 1093

4:33.95 9. 9. Margaret INFELD 86 USA F 5. Falmouth (USA) 13.08 1091

4:34.29 10. 10. Sara VAUGHN 86 USA F 6. Falmouth (USA) 13.08 1088

4:34.93 11. 11. Feyne GEMEDA 92 ETH F 4. Montreuil-sous-Bois (FRA) 07.06 1084

4:35.50 12. 12. Olesya CHUMAKOVA-MIKHEYEVA 81 RUS F 5. Montreuil-sous-Bois (FRA) 07.06 1080

4:35.69 13. 13. Julia LUCAS 84 USA F 2. Nashville (USA) 04.06 1078

4:36.02 14. 14. Stephanie REILLY 78 IRL F 7. Falmouth (USA) 13.08 1076

4:36.85 15. 15. Pilar MCSHINE 87 TRI F 3. Nashville (USA) 04.06 1070

4:37.12 16. 16. Lauren CENTROWITZ 86 USA F 1. Philadelphia (USA) 30.04 1068

4:37.13 17. 17. Gemeda Genet TIBIESO 94 ETH F 6. Montreuil-sous-Bois (FRA) 07.06 1068

4:37.21 18. 18. Alisha WILLIAMS 82 USA F 4. Nashville (USA) 04.06 1068

4:37.35 19. 19. Karly HAMRIC 87 USA F 2. Philadelphia (USA) 30.04 1067

4:37.40 20. 20. Nicol SCHAPPERT 86 USA F 8. Falmouth (USA) 13.08 1066

Your list shows another reason a woman won't break 4 - it's not run enough. Those results are all from just 4 races for an entire year and don't include most of the top mid-distance women runners, even most of the top American mid-distance runners.