Men's US Olympic 1500m team 2012

You can eliminate Alan Webb. 29 yr olds don't set the world on fire in the 1500.

Other than El G winning Olympic Gold at age 29 or Seb Coe running his lifetime PR at age 29 and Lagat winning 1500m medals in his thirties.

I looked at the last two years and Webb's 3:36.21 in 2010 says he should be on this list of top 12.

Pretty good chance that he doesn't make the finals, though.

I'd say that, baring injury, Centrowitz is a lock for the team. I think Manzano will make it as well. That leaves the third spot, and there's always a 3rd guy who no one expects to make the team that squeezes in there, like Smith and Lomong did in '08. My guess would be Leer. He's super hungry to make an international team after coming so close in '09 and'11, and I think that this will be his year.

I heard that Centro is currently hurt. Not sure what the injury is though. Maybe it is not bad???

Will Leer, and everyone else, will first have to get the 'A'. 3:35.50 is no joke, and the USATF rules currently state that it must be achieved on or before July 1 ... no chasing after the trials. AND it appears that a third, or second, 'B' member of the team is not allowed (this is the 2012 Olympics rule, not USATF's). If 3, or 2, people are to go they all must have the 'A'.

Let's hope that Meet Directors don't get caught up in this "Bring back the mile" thing and take away 1500 meter opportunities.

No way that centro and lomong don't make it unless centro is hurt. Manzano looks very good as well and unless he has a meltdown then he is likely going. The big questions are:

1- is centro hurt

2- is wheating hurt

If they are both healthy and fit then at least one very good 1500m runner will be left at home. My guess is that at least one if not both will be a little off. That puts Lomong and Monzano - just as in 2008 - with the 3rd coming from centro, wheating (who both seemed like locks until recently), maybe leer, who knows about webb but I doubt it, maybe ulrey, kyle miller.

Wheating was a lock to make last year's team.

He was healthy and still finished 4th, though he did make the team when Lagat passed on his spot.

Webb was a lock to make the 2008 team.

Holman was a lock to make the 1996 team.

Spivey was a lock to make the 1988 team.

They were all the best American the previous year and healthy going into the Trials but did not make the team.

How can Centro be a lock to make the team, especially since he was only the 5th fastest American last year?

I like Lomong's direction right now.

In 2010 he won USATF and ran 3:32 low.

Last year he switched coaches and may have been a little out of whack going into USATF which was just a free for all in the last 200m but he did still run 3:33 overseas.

Indoors he ran 1:47 on an oversized track and finished 6th at Worlds in teh 3,000 in 7:44.

Not bad for a 1:45 guy.

toro wrote:

Other than El G winning Olympic Gold at age 29 or Seb Coe running his lifetime PR at age 29 and Lagat winning 1500m medals in his thirties.

I looked at the last two years and Webb's 3:36.21 in 2010 says he should be on this list of top 12.

Pretty good chance that he doesn't make the finals, though.

Those 3 are the greatest 1500m runners of all-time. Webb is not winning medals this year, just like he never has in the past. 100% chance he's watching the London games on TV with the rest of America.

Alan who? wrote:

100% chance he's watching the London games on TV with the rest of America.

Moron, he may choose not to watch. Epic fail on your part.

Pick a 12th American to replace Webb on that list.

Jordan McNamara, Craig Miller, Ben Blankeship

We still have to see if Webb even qualifies or shows up for the Trials.

But saying that a guy that ran 3:36.2 less than two years ago and 3:37.8 just last year has 0% chance at making the team is just being negative for the sake of being negative.

Would you bet your life on that?

I put Jeff See with the "others" grouping

Centrowitz, Wheating, and Manzano -- or whomever from the 27 to 30 year old 2nd-tier guys who gives in to the temptation of heavy blood boosters.

I like David Torrence's chances - he opened up outdoors with a 3:35 this season - just a few tenths off the A standard. He's already taken down some big names this year. He's my pick from the "other" list to make the team.

Centrowitz is the only "sure thing" I see in that list. Otherwise I can see any of those guys having the ability to make it depending on the quality of training and injury issues leading up to it.

[quote]toro wrote:

Wheating was a lock to make last year's team.

He was healthy and still finished 4th, though he did make the team when Lagat passed on his spot.

Webb was a lock to make the 2008 team.

Holman was a lock to make the 1996 team.

Spivey was a lock to make the 1988 team.

They were all the best American the previous year and healthy going into the Trials but did not make the team.

/quote]

Actually Wheating wasn’t as healthy as people want to believe at Nationals last year.

My understanding is things are headed in the right direction now. I hope he gets into 3 or 4 races before the Trials but I can’t speculate where.

Centro, Manzano, Wheating (if healthy)

If Wheating or one of the others is injured or way off their game I see Lomong and Torrence ready to gobble up the free spot(s).

I, and I'm sure a lot of you, would like nothing more than to see Webb destroy everyone. It's just so unlikely...

Miles Batty was very close to Centro indoors. He is coached by a former Olympian (Ed Eyestone). I think anyone who ignores he is misled, not saying he will make it, but I think the list looks like this:

Locks if healthy:

Centro-runs well when push comes to shove

Manzano-also runs well when chips are down, championship racer

2nd Tier:

Lomong-possibly most fit athlete, lacks ability to run championships well

Webb-which Alan shows up will decide if he makes it or not

Wheating-my friends at Oregon health is a question

Batty-he has a knack of running close to big name leaders, he won't win it, but I like his coach and he can hang onto a strong leader in a fast race

Should/could make finals but that's it:

Ulrey-what has he done since he made the world team a few years ago? he got lucky then

Acosta-opposite of centro, folds under big pressure

I just don't think Torrence, Brown, Leer or Miller have it in then based on times and circumstances of past performances. They will make finals and if in position could make it interesting but I would be surprised if any of them make the team

leering wrote:

I'd say that, baring injury, Centrowitz is a lock for the team. I think Manzano will make it as well. That leaves the third spot, and there's always a 3rd guy who no one expects to make the team that squeezes in there, like Smith and Lomong did in '08. My guess would be Leer. He's super hungry to make an international team after coming so close in '09 and'11, and I think that this will be his year.

I totally disagree.

I would put him in the top tier with Manzano, Lomong, Centro and Wheating, but I cannot say he has a better opportunity than any of these guys. And, Leer, Brown, McNamara, Torrence and perhaps Webb are not too far behind.

I would never call a USATF and NCAA national champ and Olympcic bronze medalist overrated, but think Centro is capable of running a certain type of race and you won't always have it your way. - I would say Centro has a very good chance, but he is by no means a lock.

OR Runner wrote:

2nd Tier:

Lomong-possibly most fit athlete, lacks ability to run championships well

Surprised so many put Lomong in the second tier.

Lacks ability to run championships well?

Made the 2008 team.

WON the 2009 Trials.

Made the WC finals and placed 8th.

WON USATF in 2010.

Second fastest US time at 1500m last year behind Lagat.

Has a 3:32.20 PR

So he is very fast and he races well.

Good combination.

People are putting a lot of stock in last year's USATF 1500 which was won in in 3:47.

I wonder what we will get this year.

None of the favorites like to drive from 700m out.

We may just get another mad dash for the line in the last 100.